Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Ryan Tannehill be fantasy relevant?
2. Can Kenyan Drake be a weekly fantasy starter with Frank Gore on board?
3. Will DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills take another step forward?
4. Who will be the #3 wideout?
5. Can Mike Gesicki make a fantasy impact?
Between 1977 and 2003, Miami endured only one season with a losing record. Since then they've had only three winning seasons, and that trend will continue in 2018. Ryan Tannehill returns after missing the entire 2017 campaign with a torn ACL. The former #8 overall pick has had a disappointingly adequate career thus far, and it's fair to wonder whether the nearly 30-year-old peaked in 2014. Worse for the Dolphins, Tannehill's solid backup of five years, Matt Moore, has been replaced with David Fales, Brock Osweiler, and Bryce Betty. (Where's Mark Sanchez when you need him.)
This is all to say Tannehill better stay healthy if this team has any shot at seven wins. The fantasy world doesn’t think highly of the Dolphins’ long-term QB, handing him a QB-30 ADP, which not so coincidentally is close to where he finished the 2016 season -- despite missing three games. Only two of 70+ experts rank him better than 24th. It’s a pretty harsh indictment of a player who was a top 17 fantasy QB in 2013, 2014, and 2015. In the end, he'll be better than expected, but not good enough to draft in one-QB leagues. The loss of chain-mover Jarvis Landry will prove to be the difference.
I hyped up Kenyan Drake a ton last preseason and in the season's opening weeks when he wasn't even viewed as starter Jay Ajayi's handcuff. When Ajayi was traded and Damien Williams looked like the new #1 RB option, I still urged readers to instead grab Drake. Eventually, the better back prevailed, as Drake went off for three straight RB1 performances in weeks 13-15. He deserves to keep it going this season, but Miami had different plans by signing past-his-post-prime 35-year-old Frank Gore. Having not cleared 3.9 YPC in three straight seasons, Gore is simply padding his career stats at this point. Among all RBs with at least 20 broken tackles in 2017, Gore was only 47th best. Drake was 20th. If Drake can earn 14+ touches, he should at least match his RB-18 ADP. The problem is, Miami also just drafted Kalen Ballage (RB-57), who's been earning praise from head coach Adam Gase this summer. Gore is clearly headed toward bust status (he's currently my 75th ranked RB), while Drake is a wait-and-see RB2/3.
With Jarvis Landry gone, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills must pick up the slack. Both guys are slight buys at their WR ADPS of 37 and 51, respectively. Danny Amendola (WR-66 ADP) is a wild card because of continual injury concerns and sporadic production even when healthy. While Miami didn’t sign him to rust on the bunch, I’d be shocked if he offered any semi-regular fantasy value, and currently I've tagged him as a WR7/8. Another new arrival, Albert Wilson, is the other wild card. I don’t understand the Fins handing him $24 million over three years, but maybe he’s much better than I think. I’ll remain underwhelmed about his potential weekly fantasy impact until I see more. The key takeaway is that Tannehill can't make four wideouts fantasy relevant, much less three.
The Julius Thomas Era in Miami is mercifully over. The team went back to square one on draft day by snagging Mike Gesicki 42nd overall. An incredible athlete with sound fundamentals, the TE-19 ADP rookie has been rocketing up draft boards. This year he could be Tannehill's best TE weapon since the Charles Clay days, and next year he could be in TE1 conversations. But I don't yet view him as draftable.