Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Jared Goff take another step forward?
2. Should Todd Gurley be the #1 overall fantasy pick?
3. Who will win the RB handcuff role?
4. Will Brandin Cooks continue to be a top 10-15 WR?
5. Will Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods be reliable fantasy starters?
Between 2016 and 2017, Jared Goff went from bottom-barrel rookie QB to legit QB1 option. He was certainly aided last year by a system that played to his strengths, by Todd Gurley’s incredible leap forward (not merely on the ground, but in the passing game), and by a receiving corps that no longer featured Kenny Britt, Brian Quick, and Tavon Austin atop the depth chart. And now the fantasy world is eyeing a repeat performance. But Goff won’t earn his inflated QB-11 ADP. Last year he was merely an adequate passer when it came to accuracy, while his teammates dropped only 13 targets—second-lowest in the league. In other words, there’s room for regression. Additionally, their schedule will be considerably tougher this year. Last season the Rams played four 10-win teams, against which Goff averaged 13.5 fantasy points. His average against the others—including three of the league’s four worst defenses—was 18.3. Goff’s expected continued development won’t compensate for 2018’s rising challenges. I'm anticipating plenty of push-back for ranking him 21st, so let me hear it. But I'm not budging on Goff.
Todd Gurley also put his disastrous 2016 season behind him, assembling an all-time-great campaign that included nearly 2,100 total yards and 19 TDs. And he needed only 15 games to do it. As long as the offensive line holds up, Gurley will take care of the rest. And keep an eye on rookie sixth rounder John Kelly, who’s competing against Malcolm Brown and Justin Davis for handcuff duties. Gurley’s racked up 664 touches in two seasons. Only Le’Veon Bell has more. History shows it’s a yellow flag. Usually more than a dozen Week 1 handcuffs end up starting during a given season. Kelly (or, less likely, Brown or Davis) could become the hottest waiver pickup at some point in 2018, even if only for one or two games.
This offseason the Rams wisely let Sammy Watkins walk and traded for Brandin Cooks. With three consecutive 1,000/7 seasons and still only 24 years old, Cooks is an obvious upgrade and will serve as Goff’s top target potentially for years to come. But Goff must improve his throws to get the most out of his new #1. Two years ago with the Saints, Cooks was the 10th highest scoring fantasy WR while Drew Brees completed 54% of his pass attempts beyond 10 yards, accounting for 2,182 yards and 14 scores. The following year in New England, Cooks was the 15th highest scoring fantasy WR while Tom Brady completed 53% of his pass attempts beyond 10 yards, accounting for 2,282 yards and 12 scores.
Why does this matter? Goff is no Brees, and he’s no Brady. In his breakout 2017 campaign, the Rams’ franchise QB completed only 46% of his pass attempts beyond 10 yards, accounting for 1,715 yards and just five scores. 19 of Cooks’ 20 longest plays last year came on “deep” passes, as defined by pro-football-reference.com. By comparison, only five of Sammy Watkins’ 20 longest plays last year came on deep passes. Some of that differential is due to Watkins, but not a lot. Cooks will be playing with the least talented QB of his career, and that will impact production, making him a risk at his WR-21 ADP.
Elsewhere, Robert Woods (WR-32 ADP) and Cooper Kupp (WR-35) earned plenty of run and a good deal of fantasy love in 2017, and both will reprise their roles, though potentially with slight hits due to Cooks’ arrival and (in my opinion) Goff's backslide. And Josh Reynolds has been recovering from a shoulder injury that could limit his early-camp effectiveness, but which shouldn't cost him the #4 spot. Reynolds has a nice skill-set and could be a solid deep-league streamer if he's ever thrust into a starting role.
Finally, Gerald Everett has been on TE dynasty radars since getting drafted 44th overall last year. There’s a good chance he’ll win the starting job this summer, making him a name to watch, particularly when owning an astonishingly low TE-42 ADP.