Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Case Keenum prove last year was no fluke?
2. Will Royce Freeman be an every-week fantasy starter?
3. Can Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders rebound?
4. Will any other Denver wideout be relevant?
5. Who will win the TE job, and does it matter?
There’s so much to love non-fantasy-wise about Case Keenum. Here’s a guy who set about 10 NCAA football records including most passing yards and most passing TDs, but who was deemed undraftable by all 32 NFL teams. Signed by the Texans in 2012, he was waived in 2014 and joined the Rams, then went back to the Texans later that season, then back to the Rams the following year. Mostly viewed as an undersized afterthought, he landed with the QB-needy Vikings last season -- a perfect spot for a talented passer with two exceptional wideout targets, a fantastic pass-catching RB, and a highly competent and big-body TE to help move the chains and deliver in the red zone.
His borderline QB1 season earned the 30-year-old Keenum a nice short-term payday with the Broncos that includes $25 million guaranteed. Gone are underperformers Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler, and forget about GM John Elway’s pet project, Paxton Lynch. Keenum is painfully undervalued with a QB-26 ADP. Most fantasy experts rank him 24th or worse, and only one of 70+ places him inside the top 16. An upgrade over last year’s trio of mediocrity, Keenum is 16th on my draft board, surrounded by enough talent to exceed expectations once again.
At running back, Denver appears poised to put their faith in third-round rookie Royce Freeman, who set all kinds of school records at Oregon and proved to be a capable pass-catcher. Third-year RB Devontae Booker has mostly disappointed across 253 career rushing attempts, though he has shown value through the air. With 2016 sixth rounder De’Angelo Henderson is likely capped as a perennial NFL backup, this will start as a two-man backfield. But despite the buzz about Booker this offseason, Freeman is the only guy worth drafting in most leagues. His RB-34 ADP (vs. 22 on my board) makes him a steal, while Booker's RB-45 ADP (vs. 63 on my board) is way overvalued.
After four straight high-WR1 seasons, Demaryius Thomas has slipped into WR2 territory the past two years. Why? Because of poor QB play. Thomas should be at least a mid-range WR2 this year, meaning he's priced fairly at his WR-18 ADP. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Sanders dealt with injuries (and again, poor QB play) to finish 2017 with very un-Sanders-like numbers: 555/2 over 12 games. He’ll reclaim the 1,000-yard plateau with Keenum at the helm, comfortably outperforming his WR-35 ADP. The remaining wideout options are as slim as ever. How many years has Denver tried to find a viable #3? 2017 third-rounder Carlos Henderson and 2018 second-rounder Courtland Sutton are frontrunners to earn the role. Sutton has the inside track entering camp. Both guys should be avoided for now.
The tight end situation is once again a mess. Denver hasn’t fielded a top 20 fantasy TE since the Julius Thomas Era, which ended four years ago. Rookie Troy Fumagalli and second-year pro Jake Butt are the most intriguing options, while Jeff Heuerman is the “might as well start someone” option. I liked Butt’s buzz heading into last summer, with his biggest knock being an inability to stay healthy. That said, this could turn into a timeshare, so for now all three can be safely ignored, and keep an eye on what happens in August.
And yes, I was finally able to use “Butt’s buzz” in a sentence. Crossing that off my bucket list. . . .