Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Mitch Trubisky progress from bottom-barrel to middling starting QB?
2. Is Jordan Howard a locked-in RB1?
3. Can a healthy Allen Robinson regain his 1,000/10 form?
4. Which receiver will step up at #2?
5. Is Trey Burton an every-week fantasy starter?
The Bears gave away the #3, #67, and #111 picks in the 2017 draft to select Mitch Trubisky #2 overall. In last summer’s write-up, I suggested this was a reach and warned that “while [Mike] Glennon's the favorite to open the season under center, Chicago might get so frustrated after a 2-7 start that they hand the ball to Trubisky, a guy who’s started only 13 games since graduating high school. Avoid both QBs on draft day, even in 10-team, two-QB leagues.”
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/06/32-teams-in-32-days-day-8-chicago-bears.html
Well, after a 1-3 start, Glennon was benched for the rookie, who didn’t fare any better, collecting nine touchdowns and 10 turnovers in 12 games. What’s in store for Trubisky this season? If you believe the hype, he’ll be adequate at worst and a breakout fantasy option at best. Kansas City offensive coordinator Matt Nagy—the same Matt Nagy who helped guide the Chiefs’ dominant Chiefs attack last year—is now Chicago’s head coach. Nagy took play-calling duties when K.C. was 6-5, and they finished the season 4-1 and atop the AFC West.
But let’s put a little perspective on this. As good as Nagy might be, he manned a Chiefs team that was, nearly across the board, more talented than the Bears. And those final five opponents had a combined record of 31-49. Four of the five were 20th or worse in points yielded per game. Three were in the bottom four in takeaway/giveaway differential. In other words, let’s not yet herald Nagy as the next Doug Pederson or Sean McVay. And let’s not target Trubisky in any 16-team leagues. He’ll be a bottom-10 QB.
Chicago’s weak offense can’t be blamed entirely for stifling Jordan Howard’s 2017 upside. Howard dominated in 2016 despite playing in a bottom-three NFL offense. The biggest difference was the arrival of Tarik Cohen, who racked up an efficient 723 yards on 140 touches and is positioned to crack 175 looks in 2018. The fact is, until/unless Howard improves in the passing game (52 receptions in 31 NFL games and 12 drops on 82 targets), he’ll be over-drafted in many leagues. I’m also concerned about his significant YPC drop last year (5.2 to 4.1), his poor finish to the season (3.3 YPC in the final six games), and moderately heavy career usage (528 carries in two years). Howard is a top 12-18 RB, not a top 6-10 RB. And Cohen—one of my favorite bargain RBs last preseason—remains a must-draft RB in PPR leagues and deeper standard leagues, and is a slight bargain based on a compilation of 33 expert rankings (33rd ranked RB).
Chicago went all in this offseason by making Allen Robinson the league’s ninth-highest-paid wideout (on a per-year basis). Will he be worth it? Aside from a lost 2017 season in which he tore his ACL in the first game, Robinson has one dominant year (1,400/14) and two very modest years under his belt. In his 2015 breakout, his Jaguars were second-to-last in rushing attempts. Robinson was eighth in the NFL in targets but caught only 53% of them. As solid a player as Robinson is, 2015 was a statistical oddity, though you wouldn't know that from 53 of 62 experts who place him inside the top 20. He’s a significant over-draft risk and will be no better than a top 24-28 wideout, with a floor in the top 35-40. You’ve been warned.
I’m having a tough time getting excited about Taylor Gabriel, a big-play option who might get you two catches for 40-50 years some weeks, but who's almost entirely TD-dependent. Former #7 overall pick Kevin White—who’s missed 43 of 48 games due to injuries—is one of my favorite NFL sleepers if he can somehow stay healthy *and* earn a starting job. 62 of 62 experts place him outside the top 60, while 51 list him outside the top 80. I love him as a nothing-to-lose late-round flyer in deep leagues. And rookie Anthony Miller could carve out a weekly WR4/5 role if things fall into place; we'll know more about his outlook by August.
Finally, the Adam Shaheen Era will have to wait, and might never come. Chicago liked him enough last year to draft him in the second round. He showed some promise once he earned some looks down the stretch. However, in March the Bears made Trey Burton one of the NFL’s highest paid tight ends, making him a lock for a prominent offensive role. 55 of 63 experts call rank Burton in the top 14. It all comes down to whether Trubisky takes another two or three steps forward. If he does, Burton will be fine. But I don’t see it happening, and I wouldn't draft Burton as a TE1.