Happy New Year! A huge congratulations to all of yesterday's winners. I've never been a fan of competing in Week 17, but I'm a fan of everyone who does.
As with every season, I'll now take a minute to share the results of my preseason contrarian predictions. I made 17 this year; they can be found here: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/bold-predictions.html. By the way, for those who aren't aware, the FF4W website offers the same daily content the Facebook page does. Except it also includes a "Fantasy-pedia" page that shares some useful columns from the past few years. And the site is searchable, so you can look back at my 800+ columns to see when my predictions made sense and when they didn't. It's all about transparency.
This year I erred big-time in my bullishness toward Coby Fleener, Kelvin Benjamin, Austin Hooper, and Eli Manning. I was also way off in predicting down years for Carlos Hyde and Leonard Fournette. That comes to six huge misses--or 35% of my highly contrarian preseason calls.
I was somewhat right when it came to Derrick Henry and Shane Vereen--each of whom fared better than their average draft position, and better than predicted by most of the 100+ experts compiled by Fantasy Pros.
The remaining calls--53% of my preseason predictions--proved to be accurate. What does that mean? I made 17 preseason predictions that either zero or a few percent of national experts agreed with. As with every season, I want to take big leaps and offer uniquely useful draft advice . . . the kind of advice other experts aren't offering.
Blake Bortles, Tarik Cohen, Marqise Lee, Ryan Succop, and Titans DST, were all vastly undervalued this summer. If you followed by lead, you found value at five fantasy positions.
Similarly, I warned against overdrafting the way-too-popular DeMarco Murray, LeGarrette Blount, Marshawn Lynch, and Ty Montgomery. Many people drafted one or more of these RBs, expecting RB1 value for Murray and Lynch and RB2 value for Blount and Montgomery. Or at least, that's what the experts were saying.
As with my weekly podcast predictions, again, I focused on severely underrated and overrated players. I made 326 very public predictions and hit on 193, or 59%. Haven't decided whether I'll continue with the podcast next season. They averaged around 70 listens per week. It takes some time to pull together, so I'll want to see whether if the reach justifies the time (since I don't have much spare time these days).
And finally, yesterday's DFS 50/50 lineup once again hit, bringing my season total to 11 correct and five incorrect--or 69% accuracy.
I also want to take a moment to thank the five FF4W contributors for joining me this season after years of me going it alone. Nearly every question on this page is answered, usually same-day. Much of that is due to, in alphabetical order, Tommy Barnett, Robbie Lange, Joel Verzosa, Aaron Weaver, and Matt Weavil. So on behalf of the entire FF4W community, thanks guys for representing the spirit of FF4W through your thoughtful advice and courtesy.
And with that, I'll offer some final thoughts tomorrow before signing off.
As with every season, I'll now take a minute to share the results of my preseason contrarian predictions. I made 17 this year; they can be found here: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/bold-predictions.html. By the way, for those who aren't aware, the FF4W website offers the same daily content the Facebook page does. Except it also includes a "Fantasy-pedia" page that shares some useful columns from the past few years. And the site is searchable, so you can look back at my 800+ columns to see when my predictions made sense and when they didn't. It's all about transparency.
This year I erred big-time in my bullishness toward Coby Fleener, Kelvin Benjamin, Austin Hooper, and Eli Manning. I was also way off in predicting down years for Carlos Hyde and Leonard Fournette. That comes to six huge misses--or 35% of my highly contrarian preseason calls.
I was somewhat right when it came to Derrick Henry and Shane Vereen--each of whom fared better than their average draft position, and better than predicted by most of the 100+ experts compiled by Fantasy Pros.
The remaining calls--53% of my preseason predictions--proved to be accurate. What does that mean? I made 17 preseason predictions that either zero or a few percent of national experts agreed with. As with every season, I want to take big leaps and offer uniquely useful draft advice . . . the kind of advice other experts aren't offering.
Blake Bortles, Tarik Cohen, Marqise Lee, Ryan Succop, and Titans DST, were all vastly undervalued this summer. If you followed by lead, you found value at five fantasy positions.
Similarly, I warned against overdrafting the way-too-popular DeMarco Murray, LeGarrette Blount, Marshawn Lynch, and Ty Montgomery. Many people drafted one or more of these RBs, expecting RB1 value for Murray and Lynch and RB2 value for Blount and Montgomery. Or at least, that's what the experts were saying.
As with my weekly podcast predictions, again, I focused on severely underrated and overrated players. I made 326 very public predictions and hit on 193, or 59%. Haven't decided whether I'll continue with the podcast next season. They averaged around 70 listens per week. It takes some time to pull together, so I'll want to see whether if the reach justifies the time (since I don't have much spare time these days).
And finally, yesterday's DFS 50/50 lineup once again hit, bringing my season total to 11 correct and five incorrect--or 69% accuracy.
I also want to take a moment to thank the five FF4W contributors for joining me this season after years of me going it alone. Nearly every question on this page is answered, usually same-day. Much of that is due to, in alphabetical order, Tommy Barnett, Robbie Lange, Joel Verzosa, Aaron Weaver, and Matt Weavil. So on behalf of the entire FF4W community, thanks guys for representing the spirit of FF4W through your thoughtful advice and courtesy.
And with that, I'll offer some final thoughts tomorrow before signing off.