The only fantasy week less predictable than Week 1 is Week 17. And it's not even close. Every fantasy player on all 32 teams has a higher-than-normal potential of sitting out a good chunk of today's final regular season game.
For teams out of the playoffs, a normally reliable WR1 could give way to a rookie early on, giving the organization a better sense of what they have heading into next year. For teams vying for a postseason berth or a better playoff seed, their fate could be decided by halftime, pushing an RB2 to the sideline to rest up for a more important game--or to start their offseason early, depending on their team's fortune.
Anything is possible every week in every contest. But today, the unexpected is a little more possible.
So with that in mind, I've crafted an "ideal" 50/50 DFS lineup that focuses on guys who *should* play all game. After last week's lineup hit big, I'm now 10-5 heading into this final week. I thought about rolling with Matthew Stafford in a plus matchup, but you never know whether Stafford will sit out the fourth. And I thought about going with the very inexpensive Mike Wallace over my much more expensive wideouts, but there simply aren't enough reliable high-priced TEs this week to warrant upgrading there. And finally, I made a last-minute switch at DST, abandoning the Seahawks for a cheaper team I believe will surprisingly dominate, leaving $500 of salary on the table.
QB Russell Wilson ($8,700) -- Three consecutive bad games for the elite Wilson? Not a chance. Wilson will be a QB1 this week, even if he sits out the fourth with the outcome well in hand.
RB Kenyan Drake ($7,000) -- Miami has little reason to sit Drake, even in a meaningless game. He's their RB of the future and will be an RB1 next season.
RB Derrick Henry ($5,800) -- I thought about going with Mark Ingram or Alvin Kamara. But my sense is that one or both will be rested for a sizable portion of today's game. So I'm going with Henry, who like I've said all season, is more talented than DeMarco Murray at this stage of their careers and *should* be starting for Tennessee next year.
WR Julio Jones ($8,400) -- While Carolina has a solid defense, they've given up a lot of points to opposing #1 receivers most weeks. Julio steps up in big games, and today is a big game.
WR Keenan Allen ($8,600) -- Opposing CB David Amerson is questionable. If he starts, Allen should be great. If he sits, Allen should go bonkers.
WR T.Y. Hilton ($6,700) -- The Colts' organization is officially a mess. But I don't see T.Y. throwing in the towel. Going against a bottom-2 pass D, Hilton is a safe bet for top 20 production and is 50/50 to be in the top 10.
TE Rhett Ellison ($4,500) -- I could maneuver guys to upgrade here--like snagging Antonio Gates or even Greg Olsen. But I like the guys I have in, and Ellison has some appeal with most Giants' starting receivers sitting.
K Stephen Gostkowski ($5,300) -- The Patriots don't need to dominate today. They just need to win. Expect plenty of possessions and complete contentment playing it conservatively on 3rd-and-8 from the Jets' 25. I'm eyeing a 14+ point day.
DST Broncos ($4,500) -- I've been pushing Denver's DST all week. Believe they'll win 27-3 today, taking out all their frustrations on a stupidly lost season--stupid because all this team needs is an NFL-ready QB to be playoff-caliber.
For the final time this season, good luck today.
For teams out of the playoffs, a normally reliable WR1 could give way to a rookie early on, giving the organization a better sense of what they have heading into next year. For teams vying for a postseason berth or a better playoff seed, their fate could be decided by halftime, pushing an RB2 to the sideline to rest up for a more important game--or to start their offseason early, depending on their team's fortune.
Anything is possible every week in every contest. But today, the unexpected is a little more possible.
So with that in mind, I've crafted an "ideal" 50/50 DFS lineup that focuses on guys who *should* play all game. After last week's lineup hit big, I'm now 10-5 heading into this final week. I thought about rolling with Matthew Stafford in a plus matchup, but you never know whether Stafford will sit out the fourth. And I thought about going with the very inexpensive Mike Wallace over my much more expensive wideouts, but there simply aren't enough reliable high-priced TEs this week to warrant upgrading there. And finally, I made a last-minute switch at DST, abandoning the Seahawks for a cheaper team I believe will surprisingly dominate, leaving $500 of salary on the table.
QB Russell Wilson ($8,700) -- Three consecutive bad games for the elite Wilson? Not a chance. Wilson will be a QB1 this week, even if he sits out the fourth with the outcome well in hand.
RB Kenyan Drake ($7,000) -- Miami has little reason to sit Drake, even in a meaningless game. He's their RB of the future and will be an RB1 next season.
RB Derrick Henry ($5,800) -- I thought about going with Mark Ingram or Alvin Kamara. But my sense is that one or both will be rested for a sizable portion of today's game. So I'm going with Henry, who like I've said all season, is more talented than DeMarco Murray at this stage of their careers and *should* be starting for Tennessee next year.
WR Julio Jones ($8,400) -- While Carolina has a solid defense, they've given up a lot of points to opposing #1 receivers most weeks. Julio steps up in big games, and today is a big game.
WR Keenan Allen ($8,600) -- Opposing CB David Amerson is questionable. If he starts, Allen should be great. If he sits, Allen should go bonkers.
WR T.Y. Hilton ($6,700) -- The Colts' organization is officially a mess. But I don't see T.Y. throwing in the towel. Going against a bottom-2 pass D, Hilton is a safe bet for top 20 production and is 50/50 to be in the top 10.
TE Rhett Ellison ($4,500) -- I could maneuver guys to upgrade here--like snagging Antonio Gates or even Greg Olsen. But I like the guys I have in, and Ellison has some appeal with most Giants' starting receivers sitting.
K Stephen Gostkowski ($5,300) -- The Patriots don't need to dominate today. They just need to win. Expect plenty of possessions and complete contentment playing it conservatively on 3rd-and-8 from the Jets' 25. I'm eyeing a 14+ point day.
DST Broncos ($4,500) -- I've been pushing Denver's DST all week. Believe they'll win 27-3 today, taking out all their frustrations on a stupidly lost season--stupid because all this team needs is an NFL-ready QB to be playoff-caliber.
For the final time this season, good luck today.