Is it Christmas morning? If you're starting or playing against any Colts, Ravens, Vikings, or Packers, then yes. Yes it is.
In the first game, I don't know anyone who'd give Indy a shot to win. Baltimore has everything to play for and is hitting its offensive stride at the right time with 33 points per game in their last three. They'll face a Colts defense that's yielding the third most passing yards per contest and fourth most rushing yards. Alex Collins will flirt with RB1 production, while Buck Allen could sneak into the RB3 conversation if this turns into a blowout. And as I've been preaching since the summer, start Danny Woodhead at your own risk; he's 100% TD-dependent despite having above-average passing-game value.
Speaking of the passing game, Joe Flacco is ridiculous undervalued as the consensus 17th ranked QB by 75+ experts. I can absolutely see how he's a moderately risky top 8 option, as a Collins-led offense could limit Flacco's appeal, particularly if he gets pulled in the final frame of a blowout. That said, he's a fantastic bet to finish somewhere in the top 9-13, and his matchup presents him with a higher floor than most Week 16 QBs. And as mentioned yesterday, Mike Wallace is a must-start, while Benjamin Watson is a solid start. And assuming Jeremy Maclin sits, the consensus 86th ranked Chris Moore is one of my favorite dart throws. He netted 80 yards and a score across the two games Maclin missed earlier this year vs. two top-8 pass defenses: the Vikings and Bengals.
For the Colts, ugh. Do you risk starting Frank Gore. I'd be surprised if he were a top 25 RB this week. Can you take a chance on T.Y. Hilton? Not as a top 20 option. Baltimore is second in the league in opposing QB rating (70.4) and has absolutely shut down all but one #1 receiver at home. That includes two top-6 PPR WRs: Antonio Brown (4/34/0) and Jarvis Landry (5/33/0). How about Jack Doyle? I suppose someone in Indy will clear 50 yards. But you're really rolling the dice going with Doyle.
I'm predicting a 33-6 Ravens win. Justin Tucker will be busy, and the Ravens DST will be fantastic.
In the nightcap, Minnesota will try to keep up with Philadelphia in the NFC #1 seed battle. The opposing Packers have been mediocre against the run and terrible against the pass. Expect the Vikings to control the clock with their run game, as the team as the fourth most rushing attempts in the NFL. It's not fun to guess whether Latavius Murray and/or Jerick McKinnon will be playable. Murray has been more consistent recently because of volume. I truly believe it's a tossup which one will outperform the other. If I had to flip a coin, I'd go with the superior talent: McKinnon.
In the passing game, Case Keenum has 2+ TDs in six of his last seven games, and it will be seven of eight when this one's done. Don't overthink Stefon Diggs or Adam Thielen: each has WR1 potential every time they take the field, particularly in favorable matchups. It would take a dramatic shift for either to flop today. Meanwhile, Kyle Rudolph is deceptively risky despite being fantasy's seventh highest scoring TE. He hasn't exceeded six catches or 63 yards and is averaging a 4/37 line on the year. With eight scores, he's a TD-dependent option who happens to have racked up a lot of TDs. Naturally, he's one of the best red-zone targets out there. Also naturally, his value is based on game flow. I don't like his chances as a top 10 TE.
On the other side of the ball, yesterday I reminded folks not to count out Jordy Nelson. While Brett Hundley will have his hands full tonight, he'll need a #1 receiver with Davante Adams out. Jordy will fill that role. Randall Cobb has been solid in three of his past four games, and there are certainly worse risks to take if you need a boom-bust WR3. Geronimo Allison deserves no more than a glance in very deep leagues as a TD-dependent WR who probably won't clear 40 yards.
And the running game is muddled at the wrong time for those of you banking on a 20+ touch day for Jamaal Williams. He sharply underperformed last week (as I warned in Sunday morning's podcast), while Aaron Jones reclaimed some lost backfield real estate with 53 yards on only four touches. Jones conceivably could out-touch Williams tonight; it might hinge on which one looks better in the first quarter. In other words, either of these guys could be an RB5/6 or an RB2/3.
Good luck today.
In the first game, I don't know anyone who'd give Indy a shot to win. Baltimore has everything to play for and is hitting its offensive stride at the right time with 33 points per game in their last three. They'll face a Colts defense that's yielding the third most passing yards per contest and fourth most rushing yards. Alex Collins will flirt with RB1 production, while Buck Allen could sneak into the RB3 conversation if this turns into a blowout. And as I've been preaching since the summer, start Danny Woodhead at your own risk; he's 100% TD-dependent despite having above-average passing-game value.
Speaking of the passing game, Joe Flacco is ridiculous undervalued as the consensus 17th ranked QB by 75+ experts. I can absolutely see how he's a moderately risky top 8 option, as a Collins-led offense could limit Flacco's appeal, particularly if he gets pulled in the final frame of a blowout. That said, he's a fantastic bet to finish somewhere in the top 9-13, and his matchup presents him with a higher floor than most Week 16 QBs. And as mentioned yesterday, Mike Wallace is a must-start, while Benjamin Watson is a solid start. And assuming Jeremy Maclin sits, the consensus 86th ranked Chris Moore is one of my favorite dart throws. He netted 80 yards and a score across the two games Maclin missed earlier this year vs. two top-8 pass defenses: the Vikings and Bengals.
For the Colts, ugh. Do you risk starting Frank Gore. I'd be surprised if he were a top 25 RB this week. Can you take a chance on T.Y. Hilton? Not as a top 20 option. Baltimore is second in the league in opposing QB rating (70.4) and has absolutely shut down all but one #1 receiver at home. That includes two top-6 PPR WRs: Antonio Brown (4/34/0) and Jarvis Landry (5/33/0). How about Jack Doyle? I suppose someone in Indy will clear 50 yards. But you're really rolling the dice going with Doyle.
I'm predicting a 33-6 Ravens win. Justin Tucker will be busy, and the Ravens DST will be fantastic.
In the nightcap, Minnesota will try to keep up with Philadelphia in the NFC #1 seed battle. The opposing Packers have been mediocre against the run and terrible against the pass. Expect the Vikings to control the clock with their run game, as the team as the fourth most rushing attempts in the NFL. It's not fun to guess whether Latavius Murray and/or Jerick McKinnon will be playable. Murray has been more consistent recently because of volume. I truly believe it's a tossup which one will outperform the other. If I had to flip a coin, I'd go with the superior talent: McKinnon.
In the passing game, Case Keenum has 2+ TDs in six of his last seven games, and it will be seven of eight when this one's done. Don't overthink Stefon Diggs or Adam Thielen: each has WR1 potential every time they take the field, particularly in favorable matchups. It would take a dramatic shift for either to flop today. Meanwhile, Kyle Rudolph is deceptively risky despite being fantasy's seventh highest scoring TE. He hasn't exceeded six catches or 63 yards and is averaging a 4/37 line on the year. With eight scores, he's a TD-dependent option who happens to have racked up a lot of TDs. Naturally, he's one of the best red-zone targets out there. Also naturally, his value is based on game flow. I don't like his chances as a top 10 TE.
On the other side of the ball, yesterday I reminded folks not to count out Jordy Nelson. While Brett Hundley will have his hands full tonight, he'll need a #1 receiver with Davante Adams out. Jordy will fill that role. Randall Cobb has been solid in three of his past four games, and there are certainly worse risks to take if you need a boom-bust WR3. Geronimo Allison deserves no more than a glance in very deep leagues as a TD-dependent WR who probably won't clear 40 yards.
And the running game is muddled at the wrong time for those of you banking on a 20+ touch day for Jamaal Williams. He sharply underperformed last week (as I warned in Sunday morning's podcast), while Aaron Jones reclaimed some lost backfield real estate with 53 yards on only four touches. Jones conceivably could out-touch Williams tonight; it might hinge on which one looks better in the first quarter. In other words, either of these guys could be an RB5/6 or an RB2/3.
Good luck today.