Over the next few days let's zoom in on Week 16, position by position, starting with QBs and DSTs:
The Chiefs have been in must-win mode for what's seemed like weeks. They're now one win (or a Chargers loss) away from clinching the AFC 4 seed. And since they're two games back of Jacksonsville with a much worse conference record, presumably they can't/won't improve on a 4 seed. So for you 17-weekers out there, Week 16 could be the last time you can start Alex Smith with relative confidence. While he's been mediocre or sub-par in six of seven games, Smith remains will be a QB1 this weekend at home against Miami. Since the Chiefs and Chargers are playing at the same time, you have to hope the Jets don't blow out the Chargers early. And that won't happen, so that's an easy hope.
Kansas City's DST is also in the "fantasy starter" category. The Dolphins have coughed up the ball more than only two teams, and their QB rating is near the league bottom. The Chiefs will be a top 8 DST this week, better than national experts have pegged them.
Who else is underrated? The consensus 19th ranked Joe Flacco, who gets one of the best Week 16 matchups you can ask for: a home tilt against the reeling Colts. Whatever was wrong with Flacco the first 12 weeks of the season is now in the past. He has back-to-back-to-back season-high yardage totals and two TDs per game during this three-game stretch. He's a high-floor borderline QB1 this week as Baltimore vies for a playoff berth. Keep an eye on the Tennessee game 3 1/2 hours earlier: If the Titans lose to the Rams, the Ravens can take control of the final playoff spot with a win.
How about two more surprising DST performers this week: the consensus 16th ranked Redskins and 29th ranked Jets. The Redskins will feast on a Broncos offense that's second worst in QB rating and fifth worst in sacks absorbed. Washington's DST has averaged barely more than two fantasy points per game on the road this season--but a little more than eight per home game. That's only one point worse than the fourth best fantasy DST (Eagles) and two points worse than the #3 fantasy DST (Rams). In other words, Washington's DST is significantly undervalued heading into Week 16.
As for the Jets, their D has been surprisingly good against the run this season (4.1 YPC) and are in the top 12 in takeaways. They'll be at home against a Chargers team that's nearly out of the playoffs (really, they have about a 5% chance), and which has just likely lost Hunter Henry. Henry is the team's fourth best offensive player statistically; Antonio Gates simply doesn't have the tools anymore to be a comparable option. Yes, never count out Philip Rivers, and yes, Melvin Gordon came alive last weekend after five straight middling efforts. But I like the Jets surprising in this one. That doesn't mean start them confidently. It means if the top 8 DSTs are gone and you're deciding between the Broncos and Bengals, take the leap and roll with the Jets.
And finally, do yourself a favor and fire up the Patriots DST if they're available. They're my pick for top-5 numbers this week, despite being the consensus 12th ranked DST and struggling as a bottom-third DST on the season. This unit is unrostered in 43% of ESPN leagues. Unless you have the Jags, Ravens, Eagles, or Panthers, grab the Pats and secure a Championship Week advantage.
The Chiefs have been in must-win mode for what's seemed like weeks. They're now one win (or a Chargers loss) away from clinching the AFC 4 seed. And since they're two games back of Jacksonsville with a much worse conference record, presumably they can't/won't improve on a 4 seed. So for you 17-weekers out there, Week 16 could be the last time you can start Alex Smith with relative confidence. While he's been mediocre or sub-par in six of seven games, Smith remains will be a QB1 this weekend at home against Miami. Since the Chiefs and Chargers are playing at the same time, you have to hope the Jets don't blow out the Chargers early. And that won't happen, so that's an easy hope.
Kansas City's DST is also in the "fantasy starter" category. The Dolphins have coughed up the ball more than only two teams, and their QB rating is near the league bottom. The Chiefs will be a top 8 DST this week, better than national experts have pegged them.
Who else is underrated? The consensus 19th ranked Joe Flacco, who gets one of the best Week 16 matchups you can ask for: a home tilt against the reeling Colts. Whatever was wrong with Flacco the first 12 weeks of the season is now in the past. He has back-to-back-to-back season-high yardage totals and two TDs per game during this three-game stretch. He's a high-floor borderline QB1 this week as Baltimore vies for a playoff berth. Keep an eye on the Tennessee game 3 1/2 hours earlier: If the Titans lose to the Rams, the Ravens can take control of the final playoff spot with a win.
How about two more surprising DST performers this week: the consensus 16th ranked Redskins and 29th ranked Jets. The Redskins will feast on a Broncos offense that's second worst in QB rating and fifth worst in sacks absorbed. Washington's DST has averaged barely more than two fantasy points per game on the road this season--but a little more than eight per home game. That's only one point worse than the fourth best fantasy DST (Eagles) and two points worse than the #3 fantasy DST (Rams). In other words, Washington's DST is significantly undervalued heading into Week 16.
As for the Jets, their D has been surprisingly good against the run this season (4.1 YPC) and are in the top 12 in takeaways. They'll be at home against a Chargers team that's nearly out of the playoffs (really, they have about a 5% chance), and which has just likely lost Hunter Henry. Henry is the team's fourth best offensive player statistically; Antonio Gates simply doesn't have the tools anymore to be a comparable option. Yes, never count out Philip Rivers, and yes, Melvin Gordon came alive last weekend after five straight middling efforts. But I like the Jets surprising in this one. That doesn't mean start them confidently. It means if the top 8 DSTs are gone and you're deciding between the Broncos and Bengals, take the leap and roll with the Jets.
And finally, do yourself a favor and fire up the Patriots DST if they're available. They're my pick for top-5 numbers this week, despite being the consensus 12th ranked DST and struggling as a bottom-third DST on the season. This unit is unrostered in 43% of ESPN leagues. Unless you have the Jags, Ravens, Eagles, or Panthers, grab the Pats and secure a Championship Week advantage.