I keep bringing up the same issue during the fantasy playoffs: The guys who got us here aren't necessarily the guys we want to start. Just because Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers have given you QB1 production this season, it doesn't mean they'll be QB1s this weekend. I started Ryan Tannehill in the finals one year and won. He wasn't viewed as a QB1 heading into the game--certainly wasn't pulling in those numbers--but he had the best chance at securing meaningful points among all available QBs.
So today I want to briefly highlight four RB1s--based on 2017 PPR fantasy points--who won't be better than RB2s this week . . . and in some cases should be avoided altogether if you have RB1/2-caliber players available.
Lamar Miller is sitting on the 11th most RB fantasy points this season and is experts' consensus 19th ranked Week 16 RB. Except Miller's been fading for weeks, ever since Deshaun Watson went down. Since that first Watson-less game in Week 9, he's earned 3.7 YPC in seven games while scoring only twice and exceeding 13.4 fantasy points only once. Although Pittsburgh's run D is not close to elite, the fact is this offense will sputter with T.J. Yates airing it out. Prediction: Fewer than 70 total yards and zero TDs.
Carlos Hyde (10th most RB fantasy points, consensus 17th ranked RB) is facing a Jacksonville D that's had trouble against the run. But he's also surpassed 14 fantasy points only once in eight games. While the normally injury-riddled Hyde has remained remarkably healthy this year, he's gaining a career-low 3.9 YPC. His value comes almost entirely through the air, where he's recorded an incredible 54 catches, doubling his career high. With only one TD in these past eight games, and despite improved quarterback play, Hyde is a risky bet to find the end zone against the Jags. Prediction: Fewer than 80 total yards and zero TDs.
Going up against Hyde will be rookie sensation Leonard Fournette (9th most RB fantasy points, consensus 12th ranked RB), who on a per-game basis has posted near-elite production. The problem is, he's already missed three games. The Jags need him for the playoffs not to close out the season. Sure, he's starting this weekend. And yes, Jacksonville's gunning for a first-round bye. But they won't continue running him hard (his 21 carries per game would put him at a too-high 336 over a 16-game season). Also consider this: the Niners' run D is actually pretty good. Surprised? They're seventh in run D based on yielding only 3.8 YPC. The problem is, opposing teams have run on them more than any other team except the Bengals. It's all the more impressive that their D has held tough despite being on the field more than 25 other teams (31:24 per contest). And in their past four games, they've completely stymied DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry, Lamar Miller, Jordan Howard, and Eddie Lacy. Lacy isn't impressive, but look at the other numbers and decide for yourself: this defensive unit is capable of keeping the seemingly locked-in Fournette in check. Prediction: Fewer than 100 yards and zero TDs.
Finally: no guts, no glory. LeSean McCoy (7th most RB fantasy points, consensus 8th ranked RB) won't be an RB1 this week. He's netted back-to-back 20+ point games and is Buffalo's offensive centerpiece. Only Le'Veon Bell has more touches this year. But McCoy's been terrible this year on the road, garnering only 3.4 yards per carry and scoring only twice. New England has something to play for this weekend, as they continue their march toward a #1 seed. I've already highlighted their D as a surprise top-5 Week 16 option. So it shouldn't surprise anyone that I'm expecting more of the same from McCoy: 20+ touches and not much to show for it. Prediction: Fewer than 80 yards and zero TDs.
So today I want to briefly highlight four RB1s--based on 2017 PPR fantasy points--who won't be better than RB2s this week . . . and in some cases should be avoided altogether if you have RB1/2-caliber players available.
Lamar Miller is sitting on the 11th most RB fantasy points this season and is experts' consensus 19th ranked Week 16 RB. Except Miller's been fading for weeks, ever since Deshaun Watson went down. Since that first Watson-less game in Week 9, he's earned 3.7 YPC in seven games while scoring only twice and exceeding 13.4 fantasy points only once. Although Pittsburgh's run D is not close to elite, the fact is this offense will sputter with T.J. Yates airing it out. Prediction: Fewer than 70 total yards and zero TDs.
Carlos Hyde (10th most RB fantasy points, consensus 17th ranked RB) is facing a Jacksonville D that's had trouble against the run. But he's also surpassed 14 fantasy points only once in eight games. While the normally injury-riddled Hyde has remained remarkably healthy this year, he's gaining a career-low 3.9 YPC. His value comes almost entirely through the air, where he's recorded an incredible 54 catches, doubling his career high. With only one TD in these past eight games, and despite improved quarterback play, Hyde is a risky bet to find the end zone against the Jags. Prediction: Fewer than 80 total yards and zero TDs.
Going up against Hyde will be rookie sensation Leonard Fournette (9th most RB fantasy points, consensus 12th ranked RB), who on a per-game basis has posted near-elite production. The problem is, he's already missed three games. The Jags need him for the playoffs not to close out the season. Sure, he's starting this weekend. And yes, Jacksonville's gunning for a first-round bye. But they won't continue running him hard (his 21 carries per game would put him at a too-high 336 over a 16-game season). Also consider this: the Niners' run D is actually pretty good. Surprised? They're seventh in run D based on yielding only 3.8 YPC. The problem is, opposing teams have run on them more than any other team except the Bengals. It's all the more impressive that their D has held tough despite being on the field more than 25 other teams (31:24 per contest). And in their past four games, they've completely stymied DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry, Lamar Miller, Jordan Howard, and Eddie Lacy. Lacy isn't impressive, but look at the other numbers and decide for yourself: this defensive unit is capable of keeping the seemingly locked-in Fournette in check. Prediction: Fewer than 100 yards and zero TDs.
Finally: no guts, no glory. LeSean McCoy (7th most RB fantasy points, consensus 8th ranked RB) won't be an RB1 this week. He's netted back-to-back 20+ point games and is Buffalo's offensive centerpiece. Only Le'Veon Bell has more touches this year. But McCoy's been terrible this year on the road, garnering only 3.4 yards per carry and scoring only twice. New England has something to play for this weekend, as they continue their march toward a #1 seed. I've already highlighted their D as a surprise top-5 Week 16 option. So it shouldn't surprise anyone that I'm expecting more of the same from McCoy: 20+ touches and not much to show for it. Prediction: Fewer than 80 yards and zero TDs.