Tonight's contest features one team headed toward its first losing season in seven years, and another team on the verge of its second losing season in 15 years. The 4-9 Broncos vs. the 3-10 Colts is not what the NFL had in mind when opting to schedule them in prime time.
Six weeks ago I tried to isolate a big reason why Denver was underperforming. Their QB and RB play--sub-par as it was--was no worse than the 2015 Super Bowl champions' QB and RB play. Meanwhile, their defense was second-best in rushing yards per game and sixth-best in passing yards per game.
The glaring problem was that Denver was worst in the NFL with a minus-25 turnover ratio: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/10/week-8-thursday-night-football-recap_31.html
Since then, Denver's D has remained top 3 against the run while jumping to #2 in passing yards peer game. And their turnover ratio? Well, now they're second-to-worst, which doesn't sound great until you see they've moved up to minus-14. In the last six weeks they've netted a +11 ratio. Despite the recent loss of safety Justin Simmons, they have plenty of playmakers and are facing a Colts offense that's second-to-last in points per game and yards per game.
While I'm not recommending Denver's DST tonight as an elite or near-elite option, appreciate the fact that this unit is capable of getting to a QB (Jacoby Brissett) who leads the league with 48 sacks taken. Brissett is also averaging less than one TD pass per game. Outside of T.Y. Hilton, it's hard to envision any Colt being flat-out startable in fantasy. So let's get back to the Broncos.
They're also facing a Colts team that's yielded the third most passing yards and fifth most rushing TDs. Trevor Siemian is a locked-in two-QB league starter with some deep-league streaming potential in one-QB leagues. C.J. Anderson should, at minimum, replicate his 2017 RB3 numbers, while Demaryius Thomas should lead the team in targets and receiving yards, building on his season-long low-end WR2 production.
And what about Emmanuel Sanders? Is there any way to trust a guy who remains 82% rostered in ESPN leagues despite producing only one fantasy-relevant performance since he hurt his ankle Week 6? And that's the issue: Is he playing hurt? Nothing else can easily explain why a perennial top 30 receiver hasn't reached five fantasy points in five of his past six games. I'd keep a close eye on what people are saying about Sanders heading into tonight. For the gutsy among you--including in DFS--he offers incredible upside in a fantastic matchup. It all seemingly depends on whether he's over his ankle injury.
And briefly back to the Colts: In case I wasn't blunt enough above, I'd steer clear of the nearly middle-aged Frank Gore, who's coming off a career-high 36 carries only four days ago. Yes, Gore is super-human. No, he's not a robot. Expecting any RB to be in prime form four days after a 36-carry performance is unrealistic. For the 34-year-old Gore, the risk is greater.
Six weeks ago I tried to isolate a big reason why Denver was underperforming. Their QB and RB play--sub-par as it was--was no worse than the 2015 Super Bowl champions' QB and RB play. Meanwhile, their defense was second-best in rushing yards per game and sixth-best in passing yards per game.
The glaring problem was that Denver was worst in the NFL with a minus-25 turnover ratio: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/10/week-8-thursday-night-football-recap_31.html
Since then, Denver's D has remained top 3 against the run while jumping to #2 in passing yards peer game. And their turnover ratio? Well, now they're second-to-worst, which doesn't sound great until you see they've moved up to minus-14. In the last six weeks they've netted a +11 ratio. Despite the recent loss of safety Justin Simmons, they have plenty of playmakers and are facing a Colts offense that's second-to-last in points per game and yards per game.
While I'm not recommending Denver's DST tonight as an elite or near-elite option, appreciate the fact that this unit is capable of getting to a QB (Jacoby Brissett) who leads the league with 48 sacks taken. Brissett is also averaging less than one TD pass per game. Outside of T.Y. Hilton, it's hard to envision any Colt being flat-out startable in fantasy. So let's get back to the Broncos.
They're also facing a Colts team that's yielded the third most passing yards and fifth most rushing TDs. Trevor Siemian is a locked-in two-QB league starter with some deep-league streaming potential in one-QB leagues. C.J. Anderson should, at minimum, replicate his 2017 RB3 numbers, while Demaryius Thomas should lead the team in targets and receiving yards, building on his season-long low-end WR2 production.
And what about Emmanuel Sanders? Is there any way to trust a guy who remains 82% rostered in ESPN leagues despite producing only one fantasy-relevant performance since he hurt his ankle Week 6? And that's the issue: Is he playing hurt? Nothing else can easily explain why a perennial top 30 receiver hasn't reached five fantasy points in five of his past six games. I'd keep a close eye on what people are saying about Sanders heading into tonight. For the gutsy among you--including in DFS--he offers incredible upside in a fantastic matchup. It all seemingly depends on whether he's over his ankle injury.
And briefly back to the Colts: In case I wasn't blunt enough above, I'd steer clear of the nearly middle-aged Frank Gore, who's coming off a career-high 36 carries only four days ago. Yes, Gore is super-human. No, he's not a robot. Expecting any RB to be in prime form four days after a 36-carry performance is unrealistic. For the 34-year-old Gore, the risk is greater.