Before jumping into Saturday's games (with huge real and fantasy implications), some thoughts on the two of this week's most added QBs.
Nick Foles will make his second start since 2015. A win would almost guarantee the Eagles home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. He's surrounded by arguably the most talented offensive guys he's ever played with. And he's facing a Giants defense that's been awful all season. No wonder his rostering in ESPN leagues jumped from 0.1% heading into Week 14 to 43% today. Many of you grabbed him off waivers, and some of you are planning to start him.
I'd caution folks that Foles is this week's biggest boom-bust QB--something you generally don't want in the fantasy playoffs unless you're a huge underdog. Best-case scenario, the Giants' offense clicks enough to put up 17+ points, and Foles finds himself throwing into the fourth quarter. Also best-case, he shows that Carson Wentz's success was due as much to Wentz's rapid development as to the abilities of a superior offensive line and a receiving corps consisting of three terrific playmakers.
Worst-case, Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, and Corey Clement run the ball on 15 of the Eagles' first 20 plays. Foles is sitting on 3-for-5 for 40 yards and no scores after the first quarter, and fantasy owners start panicking that this was all a huge mistake, as Philly leads 10-0 and shows no signs of risking losing the game on Foles' questionable arm.
So be aware that Foles is little more than a solid dart throw. He has some of the tools and many of the weapons needed to thrive. But he simply might not be needed. In the fantasy playoffs, you want a QB who'll throw 35+ times, and preferably in a tight game.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers's ESPN rostering has jumped from 64% to 93% since last week. Those with the foresight to grab him weeks ago are ready for the move to pay off. But not so fast. While Green Bay has a slim shot at the postseason (i.e. they have something to play for), this is one of the worst situations Rodgers could have returned to.
I believe Carolina's top 10 D will step up tomorrow. If the Panthers lose, they could be headed toward to must-win game in Atlanta Week 17 to make the playoffs due to a relatively poor conference record.
Yes, Rodgers is Rodgers. He's a top 3 QB on the field and in fantasy. Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams might be the #1 wideout tandem in the NFL. And the Packers' running game is clicking like we haven't seen in years. But I wouldn't start Rodgers with confidence today. The offensive line remains a concern, with Green Bay giving up the fourth most sacks in the league (43). And expecting Rodgers to play at an elite level in his first game back is risky at best. This has all the makings of a 24-14 Carolina victory, with Rodgers falling short of expectations (he's the consensus 6th ranked QB among 100+ experts).
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In today's contests, Matthew Stafford is a must-start top 8 QB with elite potential. Detroit's sort-of Ameer Abdullah-led running game is virtually irrelevant. The Lions have to win out to make a serious run at the postseason. They'll win today on Stafford's arm: 350+ yards and 3+ TDs. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are obvious must-starts. Eric Ebron (consensus 13th ranked TE) is a fantastic flyer I recommend starting given his recent usage and above-average TD potential. And Theo Riddick has caught 11 balls the past two weeks and, after being stupidly underutilized most of the season, is a must-start PPR RB3 with solid RB2 upside.
On the Bears' side, Kendall Wright is certainly worth a dart throw, and it's hard to bench Jordan Howard. But here's the thing: I'm betting on 30+ points for Detroit, and I can see how Howard gets squeezed out with Chicago playing catch-up. Tarik Cohen has Riddick-lite appeal if game flow works in his favor. I'm betting on a comfortable Lions victory, meaning Howard is a risky RB2.
Finally, a quick word on the Chargers-Chiefs game, which might prove to be a postseason play-in game. The Chiefs have the home-field edge. The Chargers have the momentum. I believe strongly in Kareem Hunt today, on the assumption Kansas City will try to control the clock and keep the Chargers' defense on the field. We won't see many three-and-outs for K.C. today. Travis Kelce will catch 8+ balls, frequently serving as a third-down safety valve. Alex Smith could have scored three times last week, and he'll make up for it this week with top 14 QB production, exceeding expert expectations.
On the other side of the ball, Philip Rivers is essentially unbenchable in a plus matchup. He guts out QB1 numbers like few others can. But I'm viewing today as a low-end QB1 day for Rivers, who will surpass 300 yards, but who won't get more than one score.
Nick Foles will make his second start since 2015. A win would almost guarantee the Eagles home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. He's surrounded by arguably the most talented offensive guys he's ever played with. And he's facing a Giants defense that's been awful all season. No wonder his rostering in ESPN leagues jumped from 0.1% heading into Week 14 to 43% today. Many of you grabbed him off waivers, and some of you are planning to start him.
I'd caution folks that Foles is this week's biggest boom-bust QB--something you generally don't want in the fantasy playoffs unless you're a huge underdog. Best-case scenario, the Giants' offense clicks enough to put up 17+ points, and Foles finds himself throwing into the fourth quarter. Also best-case, he shows that Carson Wentz's success was due as much to Wentz's rapid development as to the abilities of a superior offensive line and a receiving corps consisting of three terrific playmakers.
Worst-case, Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, and Corey Clement run the ball on 15 of the Eagles' first 20 plays. Foles is sitting on 3-for-5 for 40 yards and no scores after the first quarter, and fantasy owners start panicking that this was all a huge mistake, as Philly leads 10-0 and shows no signs of risking losing the game on Foles' questionable arm.
So be aware that Foles is little more than a solid dart throw. He has some of the tools and many of the weapons needed to thrive. But he simply might not be needed. In the fantasy playoffs, you want a QB who'll throw 35+ times, and preferably in a tight game.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers's ESPN rostering has jumped from 64% to 93% since last week. Those with the foresight to grab him weeks ago are ready for the move to pay off. But not so fast. While Green Bay has a slim shot at the postseason (i.e. they have something to play for), this is one of the worst situations Rodgers could have returned to.
I believe Carolina's top 10 D will step up tomorrow. If the Panthers lose, they could be headed toward to must-win game in Atlanta Week 17 to make the playoffs due to a relatively poor conference record.
Yes, Rodgers is Rodgers. He's a top 3 QB on the field and in fantasy. Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams might be the #1 wideout tandem in the NFL. And the Packers' running game is clicking like we haven't seen in years. But I wouldn't start Rodgers with confidence today. The offensive line remains a concern, with Green Bay giving up the fourth most sacks in the league (43). And expecting Rodgers to play at an elite level in his first game back is risky at best. This has all the makings of a 24-14 Carolina victory, with Rodgers falling short of expectations (he's the consensus 6th ranked QB among 100+ experts).
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In today's contests, Matthew Stafford is a must-start top 8 QB with elite potential. Detroit's sort-of Ameer Abdullah-led running game is virtually irrelevant. The Lions have to win out to make a serious run at the postseason. They'll win today on Stafford's arm: 350+ yards and 3+ TDs. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are obvious must-starts. Eric Ebron (consensus 13th ranked TE) is a fantastic flyer I recommend starting given his recent usage and above-average TD potential. And Theo Riddick has caught 11 balls the past two weeks and, after being stupidly underutilized most of the season, is a must-start PPR RB3 with solid RB2 upside.
On the Bears' side, Kendall Wright is certainly worth a dart throw, and it's hard to bench Jordan Howard. But here's the thing: I'm betting on 30+ points for Detroit, and I can see how Howard gets squeezed out with Chicago playing catch-up. Tarik Cohen has Riddick-lite appeal if game flow works in his favor. I'm betting on a comfortable Lions victory, meaning Howard is a risky RB2.
Finally, a quick word on the Chargers-Chiefs game, which might prove to be a postseason play-in game. The Chiefs have the home-field edge. The Chargers have the momentum. I believe strongly in Kareem Hunt today, on the assumption Kansas City will try to control the clock and keep the Chargers' defense on the field. We won't see many three-and-outs for K.C. today. Travis Kelce will catch 8+ balls, frequently serving as a third-down safety valve. Alex Smith could have scored three times last week, and he'll make up for it this week with top 14 QB production, exceeding expert expectations.
On the other side of the ball, Philip Rivers is essentially unbenchable in a plus matchup. He guts out QB1 numbers like few others can. But I'm viewing today as a low-end QB1 day for Rivers, who will surpass 300 yards, but who won't get more than one score.