A few thoughts on Week 14 tight ends:
Jimmy Graham is this week's consensus 2nd ranked TE, with every expert believing he'll continue to dominate. I'd put on the brakes. Why? Targets and yardage are better indicators of future success than TDs are. Graham has scored nine times in his past eight games. So of course many people see his gaudy fantasy numbers and think, "Surely he'll keep this up." But I believe he's headed toward a bust week.
Graham hasn't exceeded 59 yards since Week 4, while his season-high is 72. He's averaging 4.3 catches a game. And he's facing the league's toughest pass D on the road--and one that's very good vs. TEs (only three TE touchdowns yielded). For a guy who's ranked 11th in TE yardage, Graham is a risky TE1 this week. I'd bench him for at least eight other guys, and probably more.
Who's one of those guys I'd bench him for? The consensus 15th ranked Stephen Anderson, who about a third of experts rank in the 20s or 30s. Available in 94% of ESPN leagues, the former wideout and second-year pro is the best streaming TE out there. No C.J. Fiedorowicz, no Bruce Ellington, and possibly no Will Fuller or Andre Ellington. And a home matchup against the Niners. What's not to like? While it's okay to fear the unknown, I'm staking most of my reputation on Anderson this week. You'll probably see him again this weekend in my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week.
And while I wouldn't recommend starting Dwayne Allen, remember who he plays for. Bill Belichick sometimes game-plans for guys who've been irrelevant for weeks. The prevailing notion is that Allen will get about one catch for eight yards. After all, experts rank him 26th, with no one placing him better than 19th I like him getting 2-3 catches for 25 yards and a score. In other words, if you're desperate in your standard league, he's as good a flier as any.
Eric Ebron is the 21st highest scoring fantasy TE and is ranked 24th this week in a game against a Bucs D that's second-worst in the league against the pass. With a bruised hand potentially hindering Matthew Stafford, we might see more short passes and a little more Ebron. I'm betting on him to be at least a low-end TE1 this week.
I'll end this where I began: With a high-end TE benefiting more from TDs than from yards. Kyle Rudolph has scored three times these past two weeks to become fantasy's seventh highest scoring TE. Yet he has fewer targets, catches, yards, and TDs than Jimmy Graham. Statistically, he's Graham-lite, and he's facing a Carolina D that's been tough on tight ends. He might get you 40 yards. But you're taking a big risk banking on another score.
Jimmy Graham is this week's consensus 2nd ranked TE, with every expert believing he'll continue to dominate. I'd put on the brakes. Why? Targets and yardage are better indicators of future success than TDs are. Graham has scored nine times in his past eight games. So of course many people see his gaudy fantasy numbers and think, "Surely he'll keep this up." But I believe he's headed toward a bust week.
Graham hasn't exceeded 59 yards since Week 4, while his season-high is 72. He's averaging 4.3 catches a game. And he's facing the league's toughest pass D on the road--and one that's very good vs. TEs (only three TE touchdowns yielded). For a guy who's ranked 11th in TE yardage, Graham is a risky TE1 this week. I'd bench him for at least eight other guys, and probably more.
Who's one of those guys I'd bench him for? The consensus 15th ranked Stephen Anderson, who about a third of experts rank in the 20s or 30s. Available in 94% of ESPN leagues, the former wideout and second-year pro is the best streaming TE out there. No C.J. Fiedorowicz, no Bruce Ellington, and possibly no Will Fuller or Andre Ellington. And a home matchup against the Niners. What's not to like? While it's okay to fear the unknown, I'm staking most of my reputation on Anderson this week. You'll probably see him again this weekend in my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week.
And while I wouldn't recommend starting Dwayne Allen, remember who he plays for. Bill Belichick sometimes game-plans for guys who've been irrelevant for weeks. The prevailing notion is that Allen will get about one catch for eight yards. After all, experts rank him 26th, with no one placing him better than 19th I like him getting 2-3 catches for 25 yards and a score. In other words, if you're desperate in your standard league, he's as good a flier as any.
Eric Ebron is the 21st highest scoring fantasy TE and is ranked 24th this week in a game against a Bucs D that's second-worst in the league against the pass. With a bruised hand potentially hindering Matthew Stafford, we might see more short passes and a little more Ebron. I'm betting on him to be at least a low-end TE1 this week.
I'll end this where I began: With a high-end TE benefiting more from TDs than from yards. Kyle Rudolph has scored three times these past two weeks to become fantasy's seventh highest scoring TE. Yet he has fewer targets, catches, yards, and TDs than Jimmy Graham. Statistically, he's Graham-lite, and he's facing a Carolina D that's been tough on tight ends. He might get you 40 yards. But you're taking a big risk banking on another score.