Falcons vs. Saints: If there's been a recent Thursday Night Football game with bigger real-world and fantasy-world implications, I can't think of it.
If Atlanta wins, they're almost assured a postseason berth by winning two of their final three games against Carolina, Tampa Bay, and game 2 vs. New Orleans. If New Orleans wins, they'll nearly clinch and, with remaining home games against Atlanta and the Jets and a winnable road contest in Tampa Bay, will be in the driver's seat for at least a 3 seed.
In fantasy land, for many of us this week marks the first round of the playoffs. The game features two QBs with high ceilings and relatively high floors. For all the knock on Drew Brees, he's fantasy's 9th highest scoring QB and should jump into 7th place after this week. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have combined to catch 102 balls this year. Even if he's shadowed by CB Desmond Trufant, Michael Thomas is fantasy's 10th highest scoring wideout and is a weekly must-start. Ted Ginn is posting low-end WR3 numbers, but has been a WR2 the past eight games by averaging 12+ PPR points per contest.
Many prominent experts have already thrown in the towel on Brees. For example, ESPN's Matthew Berry and Field Yates recently stated on their show that New Orleans doesn't need Brees to throw TDs tonight because they'll win with running and defense. He's "not a quarterback who can carry you through the playoffs." My response: Nonsense. Fire up Brees tonight with confidence, and trust him as a top 8 fantasy QB for the remainder of the season.
On the flip side, Matt Ryan has been one of 2017's biggest busts as the 16th highest scoring QB, trailing five mostly undrafted quarterbacks like Case Keenum and Blake Bortles. But ignore the many people out there who insist he won't be a QB1 tonight. He will be. 16 times in his 154-game career, Ryan has not thrown a TD pass. Last week against Minnesota was an outlier. The previous time that happened was December 2015. Since 2009, when a home game follows a zero-TD performance, Ryan has averaged three TDs. In a must-win home game against arguably its biggest rival, Ryan will rebound sharply from last week's debacle.
And with the Saints giving up 4.6 yards per carry--fourth worst in the NFL--also expect a rebounds for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Both are startable in PPR, with Coleman obviously being the bigger surprise as this week's consensus 30th ranked RB among 80+ experts.
The Falcons will put up 28+ points. Combined, these two teams will score 50+. It'll be a fun game to watch, and those starting key players in fantasy will get off to a nice start in this high-stakes, win-or-go-home week.
If Atlanta wins, they're almost assured a postseason berth by winning two of their final three games against Carolina, Tampa Bay, and game 2 vs. New Orleans. If New Orleans wins, they'll nearly clinch and, with remaining home games against Atlanta and the Jets and a winnable road contest in Tampa Bay, will be in the driver's seat for at least a 3 seed.
In fantasy land, for many of us this week marks the first round of the playoffs. The game features two QBs with high ceilings and relatively high floors. For all the knock on Drew Brees, he's fantasy's 9th highest scoring QB and should jump into 7th place after this week. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have combined to catch 102 balls this year. Even if he's shadowed by CB Desmond Trufant, Michael Thomas is fantasy's 10th highest scoring wideout and is a weekly must-start. Ted Ginn is posting low-end WR3 numbers, but has been a WR2 the past eight games by averaging 12+ PPR points per contest.
Many prominent experts have already thrown in the towel on Brees. For example, ESPN's Matthew Berry and Field Yates recently stated on their show that New Orleans doesn't need Brees to throw TDs tonight because they'll win with running and defense. He's "not a quarterback who can carry you through the playoffs." My response: Nonsense. Fire up Brees tonight with confidence, and trust him as a top 8 fantasy QB for the remainder of the season.
On the flip side, Matt Ryan has been one of 2017's biggest busts as the 16th highest scoring QB, trailing five mostly undrafted quarterbacks like Case Keenum and Blake Bortles. But ignore the many people out there who insist he won't be a QB1 tonight. He will be. 16 times in his 154-game career, Ryan has not thrown a TD pass. Last week against Minnesota was an outlier. The previous time that happened was December 2015. Since 2009, when a home game follows a zero-TD performance, Ryan has averaged three TDs. In a must-win home game against arguably its biggest rival, Ryan will rebound sharply from last week's debacle.
And with the Saints giving up 4.6 yards per carry--fourth worst in the NFL--also expect a rebounds for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Both are startable in PPR, with Coleman obviously being the bigger surprise as this week's consensus 30th ranked RB among 80+ experts.
The Falcons will put up 28+ points. Combined, these two teams will score 50+. It'll be a fun game to watch, and those starting key players in fantasy will get off to a nice start in this high-stakes, win-or-go-home week.