You don't have to make a mistake to be wrong. You could set your lineup based on the highest upside, and most of your guys could tank. Or you could roll out a team laden with huge-floor players, and several could play their worst games of the season.
So take some pressure off yourselves today. Don't overthink things. Make the sit/start decisions that make sense to you--that give you the best chance at winning--and be prepared for whatever happens. You can't control it. You can only try to anticipate it.
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Last week's Fantasy Fundown podcast turned out to be my worst of the season. This week I've once again made some seemingly ridiculous predictions. Some of these picks could make-or-break seasons:
https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-14-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts
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On the flip side, last week's DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week won again. That's 8-out-of-12 on the season, with 6-7 finishing inside the top 20%. Here's this week's lineup:
QB Cam Newton ($7,700) -- I strongly considered Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Andy Dalton at or around this price point. But I kept coming back to Cam. Despite a tough matchup, he has enough personnel to manufacture a top 16 performance even on a sub-par day. And his upside is obviously better than most. This is a safe bet.
RB LeSean McCoy ($9,000) -- This week's most expensive running back, McCoy should dominate touches, particularly if Nathan Peterman starts. As the seventh highest scoring fantasy RB, McCoy is a near lock to post RB2 numbers, and is one of the few backs who could realistically find the end zone twice today.
RB Gio Bernard ($5,100) -- This week's DFS play revolves around Gio, who will get all he can handle against a beatable Bears D. It's hard to imagine Gio bombing; it's easy to imagine him racking up 130+ yards and a score.
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($8,600) -- He's facing the Niners and clearly has great chemistry with Tom Savage. He's also the NFL's second most targeted receiver. Will Fuller's expected return won't negatively impact on Hopkins' top 16 appeal.
WR Larry Fitzgerald ($7,600) -- Somehow Fitz is fantasy's fourth highest scoring wideout. With the backfield a mess (no, Kerwynn Williams isn't the answer), John Brown sidelined, J.J. Nelson irrelevant since Week 5, and Jaron Brown entirely TD-dependent, Fitz is one of Week 14's safest fantasy plays.
WR Mike Evans ($7,300) -- Really? I know what many of you are thinking: "Thanks B.J. I'll use this lineup, except I'll replace Evans with someone better." Fair enough. Evans has only 19 catches for 276 yards in his last five games. Those are WR4 numbers at best. But how often have I said that past performance is sometimes irrelevant? This is one of those times.
TE Stephen Anderson ($4,500) -- I've been pushing him all week. Sure, he could bomb. But at that price, I'm simply hoping for TE1 production.
K Stephen Gostkowski ($5,200) -- I toyed with downgrading at kicker to swap out Evans for a higher priced receiver. But I believe Gostkowski is headed toward a 14+ point day.
DST Steelers ($5,000) -- Baltimore's offensive outburst last week was a fluke. The only risk is that Pittsburgh will be looking past this game to a showdown vs. New England. But realistically, the Steelers have had this Ravens game circled on their calendar all season. Every time these two teams meet, it's a grudge match. The defense will do its part.
Good luck today.
So take some pressure off yourselves today. Don't overthink things. Make the sit/start decisions that make sense to you--that give you the best chance at winning--and be prepared for whatever happens. You can't control it. You can only try to anticipate it.
---
Last week's Fantasy Fundown podcast turned out to be my worst of the season. This week I've once again made some seemingly ridiculous predictions. Some of these picks could make-or-break seasons:
https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-14-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts
---
On the flip side, last week's DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week won again. That's 8-out-of-12 on the season, with 6-7 finishing inside the top 20%. Here's this week's lineup:
QB Cam Newton ($7,700) -- I strongly considered Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Andy Dalton at or around this price point. But I kept coming back to Cam. Despite a tough matchup, he has enough personnel to manufacture a top 16 performance even on a sub-par day. And his upside is obviously better than most. This is a safe bet.
RB LeSean McCoy ($9,000) -- This week's most expensive running back, McCoy should dominate touches, particularly if Nathan Peterman starts. As the seventh highest scoring fantasy RB, McCoy is a near lock to post RB2 numbers, and is one of the few backs who could realistically find the end zone twice today.
RB Gio Bernard ($5,100) -- This week's DFS play revolves around Gio, who will get all he can handle against a beatable Bears D. It's hard to imagine Gio bombing; it's easy to imagine him racking up 130+ yards and a score.
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($8,600) -- He's facing the Niners and clearly has great chemistry with Tom Savage. He's also the NFL's second most targeted receiver. Will Fuller's expected return won't negatively impact on Hopkins' top 16 appeal.
WR Larry Fitzgerald ($7,600) -- Somehow Fitz is fantasy's fourth highest scoring wideout. With the backfield a mess (no, Kerwynn Williams isn't the answer), John Brown sidelined, J.J. Nelson irrelevant since Week 5, and Jaron Brown entirely TD-dependent, Fitz is one of Week 14's safest fantasy plays.
WR Mike Evans ($7,300) -- Really? I know what many of you are thinking: "Thanks B.J. I'll use this lineup, except I'll replace Evans with someone better." Fair enough. Evans has only 19 catches for 276 yards in his last five games. Those are WR4 numbers at best. But how often have I said that past performance is sometimes irrelevant? This is one of those times.
TE Stephen Anderson ($4,500) -- I've been pushing him all week. Sure, he could bomb. But at that price, I'm simply hoping for TE1 production.
K Stephen Gostkowski ($5,200) -- I toyed with downgrading at kicker to swap out Evans for a higher priced receiver. But I believe Gostkowski is headed toward a 14+ point day.
DST Steelers ($5,000) -- Baltimore's offensive outburst last week was a fluke. The only risk is that Pittsburgh will be looking past this game to a showdown vs. New England. But realistically, the Steelers have had this Ravens game circled on their calendar all season. Every time these two teams meet, it's a grudge match. The defense will do its part.
Good luck today.