Last night's convincing Dallas win won't dissuade Dak Prescott's doubters, who have legitimate concerns about the "normally" top 10 fantasy QB's recent struggles without Ezekiel Elliott. At the same time, the very few of us (apparently) who believed Dak's slump was imminently reparable--even without Zeke--saw enough last night to remain bullish about his Week 14 and Week 15 prospects. In those games he'll face the Giants and Raiders--two bottom-5 pass D's.
How can anyone remain bullish about a guy who threw for only 102 yards? Well, he tossed only 22 passes--well below his career average of 30+ per game. The Cowboys ran the ball on 13 of their last 14 plays, spanning almost the entire fourth quarter. Prescott's TD passes were both well thrown--one finding a very narrow opening into Jason Witten's hands, and the other a pass to Dez Bryant that only Dez could have caught--and which should make everyone wonder why Dallas isn't drawing up a play for Bryant on first down every single time they're in the red zone.
Dak didn't exactly help fantasy owners last night--I missed the boat on that one--but as expected, the Cowboys' offense adjusted to three consecutive games of anemic play. The offensive line did its job, Dak looked sharper (and seemingly had more time to make decisions), and also as expected, Alfred Morris was worth starting in fantasy, as he took revenge on his former team with a throwback performance. And heading into two very winnable games against the Giants and Raiders, we should view Dak's pedestrian Week 13 numbers as a baseline for Week 14 and 15 projections.
On the other side of the ball, I joined most of the fantasy universe by missing on Samaje Perine, who was merely an RB3 when top 8-14 production was widely expected. However, I warned that Kirk Cousins--inexplicably the consensus 5th ranked Week 13 QB--would not be a top 10 option. The only fantasy expert compiled on Fantasy Pros who joined me in this prediction? Chris Heil. You've heard his name before in my columns. Sometimes he pops up on the comments feed. Over the years we've lined up alone more times than anyone else I can think of. The first time was in 2014, when he and I encouraged our respective readers to start the Raiders DST, despite their being the consensus 31st ranked DST that week. No one else had them better than 23rd:
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2014/12/there-is-no-substitute-for-bold.html
So when 100 people line up on one side and one or two line up on the other, spend a little time trying to figure out why. Are those one or two people simply idiots? (Sometimes I definitely am.) Or do they see something everyone else is missing?
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A few things to watch for heading into the weekend:
Will Aaron Jones or Ty Montgomery return? Jones is expected to be a game-time decision, while Montgomery's outlook appears to be a little worse. Even if Jones returns, Jamaal Williams is worth starting as a moderate-risk RB2/3; the risk is if he starts with three carries for four yards, and then Jones enters with a couple big runs to re-claim the hot-hand role. If Williams and Devante Mays are the only healthy backs, fire up Williams as a late-season savior in a terrific home matchup.
There are many reasons why Lamar Miller (consensus 14th ranked Week 13 RB) will be a bust in Tennessee. I like betting on good defenses facing a running back or quarterback at home after getting schooled by that RB or QB earlier in the year. The Titans are one of the league leaders in run D (3.6 YPC), but gave up 131 yards and two TDs to Miller in Week 4. Houston's offense was clicking back then, when they had a QB who could keep defenses honest. This is one of those trap games where fantasy managers will feel pressure to start a guy who's 12th in RB fantasy scoring. Side-step the pressure and look elsewhere if you have a top 18-24 option on the bench.
And keep an eye on Marshon Lattimore's status. If he can give it a go, it'll be a downgrade for Devin Funchess and Cam Newton.
How can anyone remain bullish about a guy who threw for only 102 yards? Well, he tossed only 22 passes--well below his career average of 30+ per game. The Cowboys ran the ball on 13 of their last 14 plays, spanning almost the entire fourth quarter. Prescott's TD passes were both well thrown--one finding a very narrow opening into Jason Witten's hands, and the other a pass to Dez Bryant that only Dez could have caught--and which should make everyone wonder why Dallas isn't drawing up a play for Bryant on first down every single time they're in the red zone.
Dak didn't exactly help fantasy owners last night--I missed the boat on that one--but as expected, the Cowboys' offense adjusted to three consecutive games of anemic play. The offensive line did its job, Dak looked sharper (and seemingly had more time to make decisions), and also as expected, Alfred Morris was worth starting in fantasy, as he took revenge on his former team with a throwback performance. And heading into two very winnable games against the Giants and Raiders, we should view Dak's pedestrian Week 13 numbers as a baseline for Week 14 and 15 projections.
On the other side of the ball, I joined most of the fantasy universe by missing on Samaje Perine, who was merely an RB3 when top 8-14 production was widely expected. However, I warned that Kirk Cousins--inexplicably the consensus 5th ranked Week 13 QB--would not be a top 10 option. The only fantasy expert compiled on Fantasy Pros who joined me in this prediction? Chris Heil. You've heard his name before in my columns. Sometimes he pops up on the comments feed. Over the years we've lined up alone more times than anyone else I can think of. The first time was in 2014, when he and I encouraged our respective readers to start the Raiders DST, despite their being the consensus 31st ranked DST that week. No one else had them better than 23rd:
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2014/12/there-is-no-substitute-for-bold.html
So when 100 people line up on one side and one or two line up on the other, spend a little time trying to figure out why. Are those one or two people simply idiots? (Sometimes I definitely am.) Or do they see something everyone else is missing?
---
A few things to watch for heading into the weekend:
Will Aaron Jones or Ty Montgomery return? Jones is expected to be a game-time decision, while Montgomery's outlook appears to be a little worse. Even if Jones returns, Jamaal Williams is worth starting as a moderate-risk RB2/3; the risk is if he starts with three carries for four yards, and then Jones enters with a couple big runs to re-claim the hot-hand role. If Williams and Devante Mays are the only healthy backs, fire up Williams as a late-season savior in a terrific home matchup.
There are many reasons why Lamar Miller (consensus 14th ranked Week 13 RB) will be a bust in Tennessee. I like betting on good defenses facing a running back or quarterback at home after getting schooled by that RB or QB earlier in the year. The Titans are one of the league leaders in run D (3.6 YPC), but gave up 131 yards and two TDs to Miller in Week 4. Houston's offense was clicking back then, when they had a QB who could keep defenses honest. This is one of those trap games where fantasy managers will feel pressure to start a guy who's 12th in RB fantasy scoring. Side-step the pressure and look elsewhere if you have a top 18-24 option on the bench.
And keep an eye on Marshon Lattimore's status. If he can give it a go, it'll be a downgrade for Devin Funchess and Cam Newton.