The fantasy playoffs is a stressful time. All the hours we've put into fantasy football often come down to a few decisions--and sometimes only one.
Before rolling into the Monday roundup, it's full-disclosure time: My podcast predictions fell a little below 50%, which is obviously disappointing. And my 50-50 DFS lineup appears headed toward a miss, unless Stephen Gostkowski kicks around six field goals.
However, I wanted to see just how badly I did this week, so I'd know just how much to apologize this morning. So early this morning while rocking my nine-month-old back to sleep (no joke; it's been a rough weekend for the little one), I went through every Sunday comment on this blog--every sit/start question FF4W readers asked that are in full view of everyone. Here are the results:
For sit/start questions involving 4-7 players, I hit two, missed seven, and split on two (2-7-2). For questions involving three players, I was 5-8-1.
And for questions involving two players, I was 19-11-6, where the "6" consisted of guys who finished within a point of each other. In other words, if I recommended a player who finished three points worse than the other player, I placed it in the "miss" column.
19 hits and 11 misses comes to 63%. I'm not saying this is better than what other sites can offer. But it is what it is, and sharing it is in the interest of full transparency. If you find value on this page, keep coming back, and keep pushing me (with kindness).
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Colts -- For most of the game, no Indy wideout had a single target. Challenging weather conditions forced the Colts to run, and no doubt Buffalo knew what was coming. That said, Frank Gore continually moved the chains on a career-high 36 carries (his previous high was 31), and once again reinforced his legendary status as a reliable RB2/3 at 34 1/2 year old.
Bills -- Kelvin Benjamin dominated receiver targets and scored for the first time in a month. And then he re-injured his knee. When the season ends, he probably won't be among the top 50 fantasy wideouts.
Bears -- Most interestingly, Kendall Wright caught 10 of 11 passes for 107 yards. If somehow this isn't a fluke, Wright could shockingly help fantasy managers to close out the season against Detroit and Cleveland.
Bengals -- Andy Dalton entered Sunday with a 7/0 TD/turnover ratio in his previous three games (vs. Denver, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh). He bombed against a beatable Bears D and will be unplayable in two-QB leagues next week in Minnesota.
Packers -- Jamaal Williams continued to thrive, while Aaron Jones finished in the negative on four carries. Whatever Ty Montgomery's role in 2018, Williams is making a play for RB1/2 status next preseason.
Browns -- Cleveland let this one slip away, though Josh Gordon showed that last week's solid return was no fluke. He needs to be fired up every week--even next week against Baltimore.
Raiders -- Last year Derek Carr had nine 16+ fantasy point performances. This year he's sitting on three--and only one since Week 3. It's hard to envision starting Carr, the injured Amari Cooper, or even the healthy Michael Crabtree the rest of the way.
Chiefs -- Kareem Hunt returned big-time against a reeling Oakland D. Fire him up the next two weeks at home against the Chargers and Dolphins. Hunt was never as great as his first two weeks, and he's not as bad as what we'd been seeing 'til yesterday.
Cowboys -- Dak Prescott reminded folks that for talented players, futility is rarely--if ever--permanent. And don't look now, but Dez Bryant is a top 20 fantasy wideout this season with a decent shot at cracking the top 15 before the year ends.
Giants -- I missed big on this team this past week, believing Eli Manning and Sterling Shepard would put a scare in the Cowboys. While Eli looked good at the start, Shepard (perhaps still hurting) was largely invisible, and there simply isn't enough talent around him to get beyond his customary top 18-20 plateau.
Lions -- I wrote this on this page heading into Week 6: "[Ameer] Abdullah's sub-4.0 YPC is something to monitor, as well as his team-low 6.8 yards per reception. [Theo] Riddick gives Detroit a resource few teams have. I believe they'll start utilizing him more in the weeks ahead." http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/10/sleeper-saturday-underrated-week-6.html Riddick is now 12th in RB receptions and is a must-start PPR RB the rest of the way, with or without Abdullah.
Buccaneers -- Yesterday on this page I warned that no Tampa Bay RB would be better than an RB3. Doug Martin is getting too many undeserved touches, making Peyton Barber's and Charles Sims' fantasy prospects entirely TD dependent. Keep on eye on whether Martin's fumble and ensuing benching will help clear the path for Barber next week.
Vikings -- It wasn't pretty, but Case Keenum unleashed yet another 2-TD game--his fifth in six games. With contests against the Bengals, Packers, and Bears to end the season, Keenum should be able to keep the streak going--as long as the coaching staff doesn't do something stupid and bench him for Teddy Bridgewater.
Panthers -- I took a lot of heat for sticking the high-floor Cam Newton in my DFS Lineup of the Week. Surely the same-priced Russell Wilson would have given me a few more points. But consider Cam could have done more if not for Jonathan Stewart's career day. He'll be a top 5 option in weeks 15 and 16 against the Packers and Bucs.
49ers -- How long will I feel the need to recommend the underrated and under-rostered Marquise Goodwin? For as long as it takes. Experts have consistently undervalued him for weeks, and FF4W has been very public about this oversight. Week 14's consensus 27th ranked wideout, Goodwin was pushed much harder on this page and rewarded savvy managers with top 20 production.
Texans -- I busted on Stephen Anderson at the worst time. A combination of a drop or two, bad QB play from Tom Savage, and DeAndre Hopkins dominating targets rendered Anderson useless. All that said, I look at big pictures, not single games. Anderson is a name to watch for 2018.
Jets -- I didn't recommend Josh McCown or Bilal Powell to anyone this past week, and in all the sit/start questions I found on Robby Anderson, I almost always chose the other guy. And if McCown's injury keeps him out of next week's contest in New Orleans, the Saints DST will be a top 5 unit--not bad for a DST available in two-thirds of ESPN leagues.
Broncos -- A golden matchup meant Trevor Siemian and C.J. Anderson could exceed expectations--though they didn't quite do as well as I expected. Their remaining schedule is soft enough to keep them and Demaryius Thomas at least somewhat relevant.
Titans -- Marcus Mariota still hasn't exceeded 20 fantasy points all season, and he's sitting on a 10/14 TD/INT ratio. Somehow, he won't be startable next week against the Niners.
Cardinals -- The most interesting fantasy nugget here is that Kerwynn Williams continued to dominate backfield touches. But he regressed as expected and--if AP sits next week--will do even worse in Washington.
Redskins -- Speaking of Washington, the free-falling Skins never had a chance Sunday. Unless there's some drastic change this week, don't give up on Samaje Perine, who will fare much better at home next week against the Cards.
Chargers -- Most notable here? Hunter Henry picked up his third consecutive 15+ fantasy point week. His remaining schedule is as soft as they get (Chiefs, Jets, Raiders).
Eagles -- I somehow thought the Rams would keep Carson Wentz in check. The story here is that as good as Zach Ertz is, Wentz's weapons rival any team's in the league. He's the #2 fantasy QB for a reason.
Rams -- Cooper Kupp once again compensated for the absence of Robert Woods. Kupp and Kenny Stills are probably the two best #3 wideouts in the NFL.
Seahawks -- Stymied for much of the game, Russell Wilson proved why there's simply no one better this season. Congrats to those who hung with him after his slow start to the year.
Jaguars -- Blake Bortles did it again, and Dede Westbrook led the receiving corps in looks with eight. With remaining games against Houston, San Francisco, and Tennessee, there are three or four Jags who could be automatic starts the rest of the way, which would have sounded ridiculous in September.
Ravens -- I keep missing the boat on Alex Collins. An incredible talent, and I've been incredibly blinded by his potential.
Steelers -- After a disastrous first half of the season, Ben Roethlisberger has finally matched the lofty expectations I had when I drafted him a bit too early in August. He'll enter Week 15's gargantuan matchup against the Patriots as the 8th highest scoring fantasy QB thanks to three dominating performances in his past four games.
Before rolling into the Monday roundup, it's full-disclosure time: My podcast predictions fell a little below 50%, which is obviously disappointing. And my 50-50 DFS lineup appears headed toward a miss, unless Stephen Gostkowski kicks around six field goals.
However, I wanted to see just how badly I did this week, so I'd know just how much to apologize this morning. So early this morning while rocking my nine-month-old back to sleep (no joke; it's been a rough weekend for the little one), I went through every Sunday comment on this blog--every sit/start question FF4W readers asked that are in full view of everyone. Here are the results:
For sit/start questions involving 4-7 players, I hit two, missed seven, and split on two (2-7-2). For questions involving three players, I was 5-8-1.
And for questions involving two players, I was 19-11-6, where the "6" consisted of guys who finished within a point of each other. In other words, if I recommended a player who finished three points worse than the other player, I placed it in the "miss" column.
19 hits and 11 misses comes to 63%. I'm not saying this is better than what other sites can offer. But it is what it is, and sharing it is in the interest of full transparency. If you find value on this page, keep coming back, and keep pushing me (with kindness).
---
Colts -- For most of the game, no Indy wideout had a single target. Challenging weather conditions forced the Colts to run, and no doubt Buffalo knew what was coming. That said, Frank Gore continually moved the chains on a career-high 36 carries (his previous high was 31), and once again reinforced his legendary status as a reliable RB2/3 at 34 1/2 year old.
Bills -- Kelvin Benjamin dominated receiver targets and scored for the first time in a month. And then he re-injured his knee. When the season ends, he probably won't be among the top 50 fantasy wideouts.
Bears -- Most interestingly, Kendall Wright caught 10 of 11 passes for 107 yards. If somehow this isn't a fluke, Wright could shockingly help fantasy managers to close out the season against Detroit and Cleveland.
Bengals -- Andy Dalton entered Sunday with a 7/0 TD/turnover ratio in his previous three games (vs. Denver, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh). He bombed against a beatable Bears D and will be unplayable in two-QB leagues next week in Minnesota.
Packers -- Jamaal Williams continued to thrive, while Aaron Jones finished in the negative on four carries. Whatever Ty Montgomery's role in 2018, Williams is making a play for RB1/2 status next preseason.
Browns -- Cleveland let this one slip away, though Josh Gordon showed that last week's solid return was no fluke. He needs to be fired up every week--even next week against Baltimore.
Raiders -- Last year Derek Carr had nine 16+ fantasy point performances. This year he's sitting on three--and only one since Week 3. It's hard to envision starting Carr, the injured Amari Cooper, or even the healthy Michael Crabtree the rest of the way.
Chiefs -- Kareem Hunt returned big-time against a reeling Oakland D. Fire him up the next two weeks at home against the Chargers and Dolphins. Hunt was never as great as his first two weeks, and he's not as bad as what we'd been seeing 'til yesterday.
Cowboys -- Dak Prescott reminded folks that for talented players, futility is rarely--if ever--permanent. And don't look now, but Dez Bryant is a top 20 fantasy wideout this season with a decent shot at cracking the top 15 before the year ends.
Giants -- I missed big on this team this past week, believing Eli Manning and Sterling Shepard would put a scare in the Cowboys. While Eli looked good at the start, Shepard (perhaps still hurting) was largely invisible, and there simply isn't enough talent around him to get beyond his customary top 18-20 plateau.
Lions -- I wrote this on this page heading into Week 6: "[Ameer] Abdullah's sub-4.0 YPC is something to monitor, as well as his team-low 6.8 yards per reception. [Theo] Riddick gives Detroit a resource few teams have. I believe they'll start utilizing him more in the weeks ahead." http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/10/sleeper-saturday-underrated-week-6.html Riddick is now 12th in RB receptions and is a must-start PPR RB the rest of the way, with or without Abdullah.
Buccaneers -- Yesterday on this page I warned that no Tampa Bay RB would be better than an RB3. Doug Martin is getting too many undeserved touches, making Peyton Barber's and Charles Sims' fantasy prospects entirely TD dependent. Keep on eye on whether Martin's fumble and ensuing benching will help clear the path for Barber next week.
Vikings -- It wasn't pretty, but Case Keenum unleashed yet another 2-TD game--his fifth in six games. With contests against the Bengals, Packers, and Bears to end the season, Keenum should be able to keep the streak going--as long as the coaching staff doesn't do something stupid and bench him for Teddy Bridgewater.
Panthers -- I took a lot of heat for sticking the high-floor Cam Newton in my DFS Lineup of the Week. Surely the same-priced Russell Wilson would have given me a few more points. But consider Cam could have done more if not for Jonathan Stewart's career day. He'll be a top 5 option in weeks 15 and 16 against the Packers and Bucs.
49ers -- How long will I feel the need to recommend the underrated and under-rostered Marquise Goodwin? For as long as it takes. Experts have consistently undervalued him for weeks, and FF4W has been very public about this oversight. Week 14's consensus 27th ranked wideout, Goodwin was pushed much harder on this page and rewarded savvy managers with top 20 production.
Texans -- I busted on Stephen Anderson at the worst time. A combination of a drop or two, bad QB play from Tom Savage, and DeAndre Hopkins dominating targets rendered Anderson useless. All that said, I look at big pictures, not single games. Anderson is a name to watch for 2018.
Jets -- I didn't recommend Josh McCown or Bilal Powell to anyone this past week, and in all the sit/start questions I found on Robby Anderson, I almost always chose the other guy. And if McCown's injury keeps him out of next week's contest in New Orleans, the Saints DST will be a top 5 unit--not bad for a DST available in two-thirds of ESPN leagues.
Broncos -- A golden matchup meant Trevor Siemian and C.J. Anderson could exceed expectations--though they didn't quite do as well as I expected. Their remaining schedule is soft enough to keep them and Demaryius Thomas at least somewhat relevant.
Titans -- Marcus Mariota still hasn't exceeded 20 fantasy points all season, and he's sitting on a 10/14 TD/INT ratio. Somehow, he won't be startable next week against the Niners.
Cardinals -- The most interesting fantasy nugget here is that Kerwynn Williams continued to dominate backfield touches. But he regressed as expected and--if AP sits next week--will do even worse in Washington.
Redskins -- Speaking of Washington, the free-falling Skins never had a chance Sunday. Unless there's some drastic change this week, don't give up on Samaje Perine, who will fare much better at home next week against the Cards.
Chargers -- Most notable here? Hunter Henry picked up his third consecutive 15+ fantasy point week. His remaining schedule is as soft as they get (Chiefs, Jets, Raiders).
Eagles -- I somehow thought the Rams would keep Carson Wentz in check. The story here is that as good as Zach Ertz is, Wentz's weapons rival any team's in the league. He's the #2 fantasy QB for a reason.
Rams -- Cooper Kupp once again compensated for the absence of Robert Woods. Kupp and Kenny Stills are probably the two best #3 wideouts in the NFL.
Seahawks -- Stymied for much of the game, Russell Wilson proved why there's simply no one better this season. Congrats to those who hung with him after his slow start to the year.
Jaguars -- Blake Bortles did it again, and Dede Westbrook led the receiving corps in looks with eight. With remaining games against Houston, San Francisco, and Tennessee, there are three or four Jags who could be automatic starts the rest of the way, which would have sounded ridiculous in September.
Ravens -- I keep missing the boat on Alex Collins. An incredible talent, and I've been incredibly blinded by his potential.
Steelers -- After a disastrous first half of the season, Ben Roethlisberger has finally matched the lofty expectations I had when I drafted him a bit too early in August. He'll enter Week 15's gargantuan matchup against the Patriots as the 8th highest scoring fantasy QB thanks to three dominating performances in his past four games.