I realize not everyone reads my posts every day. I push narratives here and there; some people read them, others miss them. We're all busy people.
So this morning I want to make two things crystal clear--things I've already highlighted this week and last, but which need to be underlined two or three times. Two things that could impact whether or not some of you win a title. Two things that should be printed, folded, and put in your back pocket, so you can look at it again in six weeks realize why this mattered.
First, the Bills have one of the easiest fantasy playoff schedules to be found in the NFL in recent memory. In fact, from weeks 12 to 17, they're facing the Chiefs, Patriots, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, and Dolphins. That last game won't matter for most of you since it's Week 17. The Colts and Pats are giving up the most passing yards per game and the most total yards per game. The Chiefs are close behind, while the Fins are yielding the third best QB rating to opposing quarterbacks.
Tyrod Taylor (still available in 21% of ESPN leagues) is a must-roster QB who you could probably acquire at top 14-18 QB value. Kelvin Benjamin is a must-trade-for WR you could probably get for a top 25-30 WR. Charles Clay (68% available) is a must-roster TE. And of course, as long as LeSean McCoy doesn't break down, he'll be the expected RB1 the rest of the way.
If the season ended today, Buffalo would be in the postseason for the first time since 1999. They're 1-4 in the playoffs since losing their fourth consecutive Super Bowl in 1993. Their schedule offers them an opening to finish 10-6. Every game will matter, and all key, healthy personnel will suit up every game. There's essentially little risk that McCoy or Benjamin will rest for the playoffs in Week 16. So investing in these guys offers no greater risk than the normal injury concerns impacting every player. And their opponents' defensive liabilities should help them outperform expectations.
Second, the Texans have the toughest weeks 15-16 scheduled of any team: the Jaguars and Steelers, both of which are expected to put it all on the line during their playoff push. Their defenses produce the worst and third worst opposing QB ratings, respectively, and also give up the fewest passing TDs. They're also first and fourth in sacks. Houston doesn't have a chance. DeAndre Hopkins will be almost worthless. If you don't believe me, look at last year's numbers, when 35 fantasy wideouts scored more points than he did--and he played in all 16 games and was eighth in the league in targets. Trading him now gives you a fighting chance; keeping him means preparing yourself for benching him when it matters most. The same goes for Will Fuller, except worse.
Meanwhile, it's hard to imagine Lamar Miller getting a lot of run down the stretch--not only because D'Onta Foreman could continue to poach carries, but also because Houston will be playing from behind nearly every quarter of every remaining contest. He won't maintain his 18.5 touches per game and won't come close to sustaining his current low-end RB1 production.
So these are two areas I strongly, strongly, strongly recommend focusing on today. Don't over-buy and don't under-sell. Get a sense of how your opponents value these guys and pull together an offer that's reasonable in the near term, and which clearly advantages you for the fantasy playoffs.
So this morning I want to make two things crystal clear--things I've already highlighted this week and last, but which need to be underlined two or three times. Two things that could impact whether or not some of you win a title. Two things that should be printed, folded, and put in your back pocket, so you can look at it again in six weeks realize why this mattered.
First, the Bills have one of the easiest fantasy playoff schedules to be found in the NFL in recent memory. In fact, from weeks 12 to 17, they're facing the Chiefs, Patriots, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, and Dolphins. That last game won't matter for most of you since it's Week 17. The Colts and Pats are giving up the most passing yards per game and the most total yards per game. The Chiefs are close behind, while the Fins are yielding the third best QB rating to opposing quarterbacks.
Tyrod Taylor (still available in 21% of ESPN leagues) is a must-roster QB who you could probably acquire at top 14-18 QB value. Kelvin Benjamin is a must-trade-for WR you could probably get for a top 25-30 WR. Charles Clay (68% available) is a must-roster TE. And of course, as long as LeSean McCoy doesn't break down, he'll be the expected RB1 the rest of the way.
If the season ended today, Buffalo would be in the postseason for the first time since 1999. They're 1-4 in the playoffs since losing their fourth consecutive Super Bowl in 1993. Their schedule offers them an opening to finish 10-6. Every game will matter, and all key, healthy personnel will suit up every game. There's essentially little risk that McCoy or Benjamin will rest for the playoffs in Week 16. So investing in these guys offers no greater risk than the normal injury concerns impacting every player. And their opponents' defensive liabilities should help them outperform expectations.
Second, the Texans have the toughest weeks 15-16 scheduled of any team: the Jaguars and Steelers, both of which are expected to put it all on the line during their playoff push. Their defenses produce the worst and third worst opposing QB ratings, respectively, and also give up the fewest passing TDs. They're also first and fourth in sacks. Houston doesn't have a chance. DeAndre Hopkins will be almost worthless. If you don't believe me, look at last year's numbers, when 35 fantasy wideouts scored more points than he did--and he played in all 16 games and was eighth in the league in targets. Trading him now gives you a fighting chance; keeping him means preparing yourself for benching him when it matters most. The same goes for Will Fuller, except worse.
Meanwhile, it's hard to imagine Lamar Miller getting a lot of run down the stretch--not only because D'Onta Foreman could continue to poach carries, but also because Houston will be playing from behind nearly every quarter of every remaining contest. He won't maintain his 18.5 touches per game and won't come close to sustaining his current low-end RB1 production.
So these are two areas I strongly, strongly, strongly recommend focusing on today. Don't over-buy and don't under-sell. Get a sense of how your opponents value these guys and pull together an offer that's reasonable in the near term, and which clearly advantages you for the fantasy playoffs.