The Packers were 4-1 when Aaron Rodgers went down early in Week 6. Some people believed Brett Hundley would be ready to take over. I objected, stating in my Monday morning column, “The 4-2 Packers’ playoff hunt is almost certainly shot unless they sign Colin Kaepernick or trade for a Jacoby Brissett-like talent. Obviously, every fantasy receiver loses significant value.”
There was no glossing over the fact that Hundley was not the answer. Behind a flawless offensive line, the 24-year-old with 2-of-10 career NFL passing numbers would have had a chance. But the Packers’ o-line is exposing him in the same way he was exposed at UCLA, where he averaged 42 sacks per season and couldn’t hit a school bus when throwing on the run.
Now 4-4, if they don’t make any changes at QB, Green Bay will lose at least five more games (Bears, Steelers, Panthers, Vikings, Lions) and possibly more en route to their worst season in about a decade. It’s yet another reason why we need to move quickly in fantasy. After Week 6, someone in your league valued Hundley more than he was worth, and therefore valued Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams more than they were worth.
It’s also why DeAndre Hopkins is the biggest sell-high receiver out there. Tom Savage steps in, and wow, Hopkins doesn’t miss a beat. Except this was a home game against Indy. Hopkins will be no better than a WR3 in most games going forward. So play into your opponent’s hopes and sell Hopkins for WR1/2 value. Make her/him believe that Savage is better than he really is.
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Looking ahead to this week’s waiver pickups, Ryan Fitzpatrick (available in 99% of ESPN leagues) jumps out as a huge add if you’re desperate for a high-upside streaming option. But let’s also see if Mike Evans wins his suspension appeal. If he does, Fitz will be a top 10 Week 10 QB. If he doesn’t, Fitz is looking at top 14-16 production.
Tyrod Taylor remains ridiculously under-rostered (24% available). He’s the 13th highest scoring fantasy QB, will partner with Kelvin Benjamin this weekend, and has only one or two tough defensive matchups remaining (the Chargers and possibly the Saints). I actually think he’ll post QB1 numbers against New Orleans.
You all have heard me push Kenyan Drake (42% available) a dozen times or more this season. On my podcast I warned that he’d be one of the biggest RB pickups after this past weekend. Snag him as a weekly RB2/3.
Thomas Rawls (85% available) – We don’t yet know how serious Eddie Lacy’s groin injury is. Rawls could get 15+ touches and be an RB3+ if Lacy sits. He’s worth a speculative add given his proven upside if handed the reins.
Peyton Barber (100% available) – His upside is severely capped. But if you’re desperate for a potential RB3, he has appeal as the struggling Doug Martin’s apparent handcuff.
Sterling Shepard (27% available) is the Giants’ #1 receiver. As long as the team doesn’t mess around and bench Eli Manning, Shepard will have a weekly WR3 floor despite the fact that TDs might be hard to come by.
Finally, as I said over the weekend, Marquise Goodwin (91% available) is a fantastic weekly flyer given how frequently he’s targeted. Is he a must-start? Of course not. But while Josh Doctson gets more hype and Will Fuller is perceived to be more valuable, high-targeted guys like Goodwin are safe WR4s with startable upside.
There was no glossing over the fact that Hundley was not the answer. Behind a flawless offensive line, the 24-year-old with 2-of-10 career NFL passing numbers would have had a chance. But the Packers’ o-line is exposing him in the same way he was exposed at UCLA, where he averaged 42 sacks per season and couldn’t hit a school bus when throwing on the run.
Now 4-4, if they don’t make any changes at QB, Green Bay will lose at least five more games (Bears, Steelers, Panthers, Vikings, Lions) and possibly more en route to their worst season in about a decade. It’s yet another reason why we need to move quickly in fantasy. After Week 6, someone in your league valued Hundley more than he was worth, and therefore valued Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams more than they were worth.
It’s also why DeAndre Hopkins is the biggest sell-high receiver out there. Tom Savage steps in, and wow, Hopkins doesn’t miss a beat. Except this was a home game against Indy. Hopkins will be no better than a WR3 in most games going forward. So play into your opponent’s hopes and sell Hopkins for WR1/2 value. Make her/him believe that Savage is better than he really is.
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Looking ahead to this week’s waiver pickups, Ryan Fitzpatrick (available in 99% of ESPN leagues) jumps out as a huge add if you’re desperate for a high-upside streaming option. But let’s also see if Mike Evans wins his suspension appeal. If he does, Fitz will be a top 10 Week 10 QB. If he doesn’t, Fitz is looking at top 14-16 production.
Tyrod Taylor remains ridiculously under-rostered (24% available). He’s the 13th highest scoring fantasy QB, will partner with Kelvin Benjamin this weekend, and has only one or two tough defensive matchups remaining (the Chargers and possibly the Saints). I actually think he’ll post QB1 numbers against New Orleans.
You all have heard me push Kenyan Drake (42% available) a dozen times or more this season. On my podcast I warned that he’d be one of the biggest RB pickups after this past weekend. Snag him as a weekly RB2/3.
Thomas Rawls (85% available) – We don’t yet know how serious Eddie Lacy’s groin injury is. Rawls could get 15+ touches and be an RB3+ if Lacy sits. He’s worth a speculative add given his proven upside if handed the reins.
Peyton Barber (100% available) – His upside is severely capped. But if you’re desperate for a potential RB3, he has appeal as the struggling Doug Martin’s apparent handcuff.
Sterling Shepard (27% available) is the Giants’ #1 receiver. As long as the team doesn’t mess around and bench Eli Manning, Shepard will have a weekly WR3 floor despite the fact that TDs might be hard to come by.
Finally, as I said over the weekend, Marquise Goodwin (91% available) is a fantastic weekly flyer given how frequently he’s targeted. Is he a must-start? Of course not. But while Josh Doctson gets more hype and Will Fuller is perceived to be more valuable, high-targeted guys like Goodwin are safe WR4s with startable upside.