Why do we so often assume that slumps are semi-permanent, while breakouts are precursors to continued dominance?
That kicks off this morning's Thursday Night Football preview, which pits two teams that were strong postseason contenders as recently as October. The Redskins were once 3-2 and eyeing three very winnable games to close out the season (Cardinals, Broncos, Giants). Now 5-6 and two games out of a playoff spot, their season presumably will end if they fall short tonight. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are limping (and that's generous) through Ezekiel Elliott's six-game suspension, losing three straight after beginning 5-3. They, too, are 2 1/2 games back (due to a loss to the 7-4 Falcons) and are realistically finished if they drop tonight's home matchup. And by the way, they're underdogs.
When was the last time Dallas was an underdog to a Washington team that didn't even have a better record?
The Cowboys aren't expected to win this one because they've been outscored 92-22 during this three-game slide. Their offense is the epitome of dysfunction. So Dak Prescott has no chance to right the ship, right? Dez Bryant is the NFL's most overrated, over-the-hill, 20-something-year-old receiver. And Dallas will continue to average seven points a game until Zeke returns.
It's all nonsense, because that isn't how sports work. Elliott's absence surely is a difference-maker. What he brings to this offense is immeasurable. But let's not forget that in the past few games, Dallas hasn't had a healthy offensive line for an entire half, let along an entire game (tonight, they're expected to). Meanwhile, the underutilized Alfred Morris is averaging 5.8 YPC this year. And let's keep in mind that Dak and Dez haven't been sitting at home moping these past few days.
Sports is about adjustments and counter-adjustments. In baseball, a rookie hits 35 homers and strikes out 150 times. What's the more telling stat heading into his sophomore year? The strikeouts. Pitchers are studying tapes with their coaching staff and figuring out how to exploit weaknesses. They're adjusting their approach based on the planning and scrutiny that goes into each one-on-one matchup.
I've always viewed Bill Belichick as a master adjuster and counter-adjuster because he does it before opposing teams realize it's coming. Those playing the Colts know the key is to stop T.Y. Hilton, and maybe Frank Gore on a good day. But you never know which of the Patriots' 8-10 (when healthy) weapons will score, and apparently neither do most defenses. Belichick and his staff figure out the solutions to problems before they become problems.
So of course Jason Garrett and his staff have been working feverishly with Dak, Dez, and everyone else to identify what's going wrong and how to fix it. And after flailing against three fairly tough defenses, they get a bottom-half Washington D to experiment on.
My predictions aren't based solely on stats and news. In fact, most of my predictions have nothing to do with the noise that reporters and bloggers put out there--the speculation that tends to follow the trend lines of conventional wisdom. I don't read other fantasy writers and don't listen to their podcasts--not to be an asshole, but because I don't want it to infiltrate my thinking.
I've never expressed this to anyone, so here it is for the hundreds or thousands of you who are reading this: Most of my picks are based at least somewhat on the realities of adjustments and counter-adjustments--anticipating shifts in player fortunes based on what I perceive to be each team's strengths and weaknesses, and how successfully they're capitalizing on strengths while masking weaknesses.
Even without Zeke, the Cowboys have plenty of strengths. They're simply not capitalizing on them. To think they'll never figure out how to solve this riddle is to suggest either they're not talented enough, or they've already quit on the season. Neither is true. And that's why I believe it's only a matter of time before Dak and Dez and this offense start clicking again. And if you're a betting person, believe that the bounce-backs--the adjustments--begin tonight.
That kicks off this morning's Thursday Night Football preview, which pits two teams that were strong postseason contenders as recently as October. The Redskins were once 3-2 and eyeing three very winnable games to close out the season (Cardinals, Broncos, Giants). Now 5-6 and two games out of a playoff spot, their season presumably will end if they fall short tonight. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are limping (and that's generous) through Ezekiel Elliott's six-game suspension, losing three straight after beginning 5-3. They, too, are 2 1/2 games back (due to a loss to the 7-4 Falcons) and are realistically finished if they drop tonight's home matchup. And by the way, they're underdogs.
When was the last time Dallas was an underdog to a Washington team that didn't even have a better record?
The Cowboys aren't expected to win this one because they've been outscored 92-22 during this three-game slide. Their offense is the epitome of dysfunction. So Dak Prescott has no chance to right the ship, right? Dez Bryant is the NFL's most overrated, over-the-hill, 20-something-year-old receiver. And Dallas will continue to average seven points a game until Zeke returns.
It's all nonsense, because that isn't how sports work. Elliott's absence surely is a difference-maker. What he brings to this offense is immeasurable. But let's not forget that in the past few games, Dallas hasn't had a healthy offensive line for an entire half, let along an entire game (tonight, they're expected to). Meanwhile, the underutilized Alfred Morris is averaging 5.8 YPC this year. And let's keep in mind that Dak and Dez haven't been sitting at home moping these past few days.
Sports is about adjustments and counter-adjustments. In baseball, a rookie hits 35 homers and strikes out 150 times. What's the more telling stat heading into his sophomore year? The strikeouts. Pitchers are studying tapes with their coaching staff and figuring out how to exploit weaknesses. They're adjusting their approach based on the planning and scrutiny that goes into each one-on-one matchup.
I've always viewed Bill Belichick as a master adjuster and counter-adjuster because he does it before opposing teams realize it's coming. Those playing the Colts know the key is to stop T.Y. Hilton, and maybe Frank Gore on a good day. But you never know which of the Patriots' 8-10 (when healthy) weapons will score, and apparently neither do most defenses. Belichick and his staff figure out the solutions to problems before they become problems.
So of course Jason Garrett and his staff have been working feverishly with Dak, Dez, and everyone else to identify what's going wrong and how to fix it. And after flailing against three fairly tough defenses, they get a bottom-half Washington D to experiment on.
My predictions aren't based solely on stats and news. In fact, most of my predictions have nothing to do with the noise that reporters and bloggers put out there--the speculation that tends to follow the trend lines of conventional wisdom. I don't read other fantasy writers and don't listen to their podcasts--not to be an asshole, but because I don't want it to infiltrate my thinking.
I've never expressed this to anyone, so here it is for the hundreds or thousands of you who are reading this: Most of my picks are based at least somewhat on the realities of adjustments and counter-adjustments--anticipating shifts in player fortunes based on what I perceive to be each team's strengths and weaknesses, and how successfully they're capitalizing on strengths while masking weaknesses.
Even without Zeke, the Cowboys have plenty of strengths. They're simply not capitalizing on them. To think they'll never figure out how to solve this riddle is to suggest either they're not talented enough, or they've already quit on the season. Neither is true. And that's why I believe it's only a matter of time before Dak and Dez and this offense start clicking again. And if you're a betting person, believe that the bounce-backs--the adjustments--begin tonight.