It's time to try to make sense of Thursday's games. Gloriously, we're on the verge of 9-10 hours of (potential) fantasy bliss to complement (or counter) whatever Thanksgiving fun (or pain) awaits. This also happens to be a must-win week for a good chunk of you. So let's hear from you: What do you need to happen tomorrow? And what needs to not happen?
The 8-2 Vikings are obviously a dangerous team: improved running game, surprisingly effective passing game, and strong defense. The 6-4 Lions have a mediocre running game, a kick-butt passing game, and a middling D. Unlike the other two Thursday games, this one could go either way. Keep an eye on the ascending Eric Ebron, who's been fairly solid since the bye week and is now a weekly streaming option. He's not as bad as his overall numbers suggest; it's the mental game, not the physical one, that's been hindering him. I like him as a surprise TE1. I'd avoid Ameer Abdullah, who will have to overcome inefficient running while going against the NFL's top run D (3.3 YPC against). Theo Riddick offers more upside as an RB3+.
On Minnesota's side of the ball, I think you have to start Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs with relative confidence. I wrote a couple weeks ago that the Vikings would be foolish to replace Case Keenum with Teddy Bridgewater. The veteran Keenum is proving to be exactly what this team needed this season. As for the ground game, Latavius Murray has been the lead guy over Jerick McKinnon. But don't get too caught up in this trend; it remains a hot-hand situation.
Remember how bad the Cowboys looked Sunday night? Now forget it. Tackle Tyron Smith should return, and this offense should get going again. Dallas will probably lose again against Philly and might lose vs. Oakland, meaning they must win their other four games if they have a shot at the playoffs. Thursday they'll take that first step, posting 27+ points with relative ease against a league-worst Chargers run defense. Alfred Morris is an almost must-start RB3+, while, Dak Prescott will produce QB1 numbers. I like the underwhelming Dez Bryant getting going tomorrow, and I also like Jason Witten getting more attention than usual.
The Chargers will get their points. The big question is whether Melvin Gordon is an automatic start, and whether Austin Ekeler is here to stay. I remain concerned about Gordon this year and beyond, and I believe Dallas's run D will perform better than expected. If you want automatic points, look to Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen. And I'd put Ekeler at better than 50-50 to outperform Gordon.
Finally, what a miserable season it's been for the 4-win Redskins and 2-win Giants. Look for Washington to run the Giants out of town--literally and figuratively. Samaje Perine is a must-start RB1/2, while Byron Marshall offers flyer appeal if he gets a bunch of looks with Washington's up big in the fourth quarter. This has "3-TD day" written all over it for Kirk Cousins. The usual suspects--Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, and Vernon Davis--will continue to produce.
On the flip side, the Giants conceivably could be shut out in this one. Don't get cute starting Roger Lewis or Tavarres King. Evan Engram will rebound, but low-end TE1 production is about the best you can hope for. And Sterling Shepard will get plenty of looks if healthy, but I doubt he clears 60 yards. On the ground, Orleans Darkwa will be a surprise bust, offering no better than RB3 value.
Good luck tomorrow, both in fantasy and in food digestion.
The 8-2 Vikings are obviously a dangerous team: improved running game, surprisingly effective passing game, and strong defense. The 6-4 Lions have a mediocre running game, a kick-butt passing game, and a middling D. Unlike the other two Thursday games, this one could go either way. Keep an eye on the ascending Eric Ebron, who's been fairly solid since the bye week and is now a weekly streaming option. He's not as bad as his overall numbers suggest; it's the mental game, not the physical one, that's been hindering him. I like him as a surprise TE1. I'd avoid Ameer Abdullah, who will have to overcome inefficient running while going against the NFL's top run D (3.3 YPC against). Theo Riddick offers more upside as an RB3+.
On Minnesota's side of the ball, I think you have to start Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs with relative confidence. I wrote a couple weeks ago that the Vikings would be foolish to replace Case Keenum with Teddy Bridgewater. The veteran Keenum is proving to be exactly what this team needed this season. As for the ground game, Latavius Murray has been the lead guy over Jerick McKinnon. But don't get too caught up in this trend; it remains a hot-hand situation.
Remember how bad the Cowboys looked Sunday night? Now forget it. Tackle Tyron Smith should return, and this offense should get going again. Dallas will probably lose again against Philly and might lose vs. Oakland, meaning they must win their other four games if they have a shot at the playoffs. Thursday they'll take that first step, posting 27+ points with relative ease against a league-worst Chargers run defense. Alfred Morris is an almost must-start RB3+, while, Dak Prescott will produce QB1 numbers. I like the underwhelming Dez Bryant getting going tomorrow, and I also like Jason Witten getting more attention than usual.
The Chargers will get their points. The big question is whether Melvin Gordon is an automatic start, and whether Austin Ekeler is here to stay. I remain concerned about Gordon this year and beyond, and I believe Dallas's run D will perform better than expected. If you want automatic points, look to Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen. And I'd put Ekeler at better than 50-50 to outperform Gordon.
Finally, what a miserable season it's been for the 4-win Redskins and 2-win Giants. Look for Washington to run the Giants out of town--literally and figuratively. Samaje Perine is a must-start RB1/2, while Byron Marshall offers flyer appeal if he gets a bunch of looks with Washington's up big in the fourth quarter. This has "3-TD day" written all over it for Kirk Cousins. The usual suspects--Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, and Vernon Davis--will continue to produce.
On the flip side, the Giants conceivably could be shut out in this one. Don't get cute starting Roger Lewis or Tavarres King. Evan Engram will rebound, but low-end TE1 production is about the best you can hope for. And Sterling Shepard will get plenty of looks if healthy, but I doubt he clears 60 yards. On the ground, Orleans Darkwa will be a surprise bust, offering no better than RB3 value.
Good luck tomorrow, both in fantasy and in food digestion.