A personal recap on Week 12: I've improved to 7-4 on the season on my DFS 50/50 Lineups of the Week (remember, I started this feature in Week 2). Week 12's selections included big performers Russell Wilson, Tevin Coleman, Le'Veon Bell, Sammy Watkins, and of course Julio Jones. This was the fifth or sixth time in 11 weeks when my lineup finished in the top 20%--meaning about half the time, these qualified for bigger tournament payoffs.
For my bargains/busts podcast, I made 14 unconventional predictions and hit on seven of them. I missed big on the Ravens yesterday, believing (naively, as some of you justifiably might believe) that Joe Flacco would finally do something against an eminently beatable Houston pass D. Instead he was merely the 23rd best Week 12 fantasy QB--and would have been 27th if not for a 25-yard-run on the final meaningful play to seal the win.
As mediocre as Flacco has been throughout his career, I'm having trouble fathoming how steep his drop-off has been from last year to this one. This is easily his worst statistical seasons. My hunch is that his preseason back injury has lingered, and he and/or the team isn't letting on.
Regardless, there's more to this story. So I did some research early this morning on Next Gen Stats' terrific website, going through various numbers to see what jumps out. What I found most interesting is that each 2016 Flacco pass traveled an average of 8.1 yards. This year it's down to seven, which is the worst mark among all 2017 NFL QBs except Mike Glennon (6.6). He's also not throwing as much into tight coverage, throwing only 14.5% of his passes into tight coverage (vs. 17% last season). Yet he's being given essentially just as much time to throw this season (2.55 seconds) as he had last year (2.57).
There's something going on with Flacco, and it's too simple and unconstructive to say he's "just not good anymore." If he can't capitalize on a near-dream home matchup on Monday Night Football, I don't see how he should even be in anyone's two-QB lineups going forward.
As most of you know, I don't play this stuff safe. That's why I'll urge people to start a QB when it seems stupid to start that QB (see Flacco or Thursday's Dak Prescott call), or I'll challenge conventional wisdom on which backfield RB will do better (see Thursday's Melvin Gordon - Austin Ekeler prediction).
But those who listened to this weekend's podcast might have been surprised to hear me warning against three nearly universal (based on 100+ experts) Week 12 RB1s. Jordan Howard (12th ranked), Leonard Fournette (7th ranked), and Mark Ingram (3rd ranked) were supposed to help fantasy teams this weekend. My research showed they were, as I say every week on my podcast, "vastly overrated."
I'm now 61% on my year-long bargain/bust predictions, which are anything but 50/50 calls. To be blunt, these are often calls few people are willing to make--especially publicly. How many people would have started Tevin Coleman over Mark Ingram, or Austin Ekeler over Jordan Howard? I've been very upfront about these and other predictions. These are calls that can make or break a season, and they're the biggest reason why I care about this page and this community.
The day I turn over the keys to this site to someone else is the day I can no longer accurately make unconventional predictions--the day I'm consistently below 50% on the tough calls. Until then, keep challenging me, keep researching, and keep believing that competitive edges--reaping rewards by zigging when everyone else zags--do exist in fantasy football. Because if you can hit 60%-65% on these tough calls, you're a big step closer to being a winner.
For my bargains/busts podcast, I made 14 unconventional predictions and hit on seven of them. I missed big on the Ravens yesterday, believing (naively, as some of you justifiably might believe) that Joe Flacco would finally do something against an eminently beatable Houston pass D. Instead he was merely the 23rd best Week 12 fantasy QB--and would have been 27th if not for a 25-yard-run on the final meaningful play to seal the win.
As mediocre as Flacco has been throughout his career, I'm having trouble fathoming how steep his drop-off has been from last year to this one. This is easily his worst statistical seasons. My hunch is that his preseason back injury has lingered, and he and/or the team isn't letting on.
Regardless, there's more to this story. So I did some research early this morning on Next Gen Stats' terrific website, going through various numbers to see what jumps out. What I found most interesting is that each 2016 Flacco pass traveled an average of 8.1 yards. This year it's down to seven, which is the worst mark among all 2017 NFL QBs except Mike Glennon (6.6). He's also not throwing as much into tight coverage, throwing only 14.5% of his passes into tight coverage (vs. 17% last season). Yet he's being given essentially just as much time to throw this season (2.55 seconds) as he had last year (2.57).
There's something going on with Flacco, and it's too simple and unconstructive to say he's "just not good anymore." If he can't capitalize on a near-dream home matchup on Monday Night Football, I don't see how he should even be in anyone's two-QB lineups going forward.
As most of you know, I don't play this stuff safe. That's why I'll urge people to start a QB when it seems stupid to start that QB (see Flacco or Thursday's Dak Prescott call), or I'll challenge conventional wisdom on which backfield RB will do better (see Thursday's Melvin Gordon - Austin Ekeler prediction).
But those who listened to this weekend's podcast might have been surprised to hear me warning against three nearly universal (based on 100+ experts) Week 12 RB1s. Jordan Howard (12th ranked), Leonard Fournette (7th ranked), and Mark Ingram (3rd ranked) were supposed to help fantasy teams this weekend. My research showed they were, as I say every week on my podcast, "vastly overrated."
I'm now 61% on my year-long bargain/bust predictions, which are anything but 50/50 calls. To be blunt, these are often calls few people are willing to make--especially publicly. How many people would have started Tevin Coleman over Mark Ingram, or Austin Ekeler over Jordan Howard? I've been very upfront about these and other predictions. These are calls that can make or break a season, and they're the biggest reason why I care about this page and this community.
The day I turn over the keys to this site to someone else is the day I can no longer accurately make unconventional predictions--the day I'm consistently below 50% on the tough calls. Until then, keep challenging me, keep researching, and keep believing that competitive edges--reaping rewards by zigging when everyone else zags--do exist in fantasy football. Because if you can hit 60%-65% on these tough calls, you're a big step closer to being a winner.