Week 11 Thursday Night Football Recap, and Fantasy News

I made four predictions last night ant hit on four: Big Ben threw for 3+ TDs for the first time in 14 games, while Antonio Brown had 10 catches, 120+ yards, and 2+ TDs for the first time in 34 games. For Tennessee, Marcus Mariota was overvalued as expected, while DeMarco Murray was ridiculously overvalued as expected.

Congrats to those who heeded this advice. It obviously doesn't always go as planned. I get a lot wrong. But this late in the regular season, when fantasy playoff hopes rise and fall with a single NFL game, choosing right on a sit/start question can make all the difference.

If you have Le'Veon Bell, once again you have to be concerned about his poor YPC (though the Titans' run D is pretty solid) and the fact that he earned only 12 carries. He remains a top-3 RB. But with David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott off the grid, based on where he was drafted, you'd expect Bell to be at least as productive as last year's per-game numbers. He's not there.

And it's very fair to be concerned about the often overrated DeMarco Murray, who hasn't exceeded 3.3 YPC in six games. It's partly been due to a tough schedule, and some believe he's playing hurt (thought really, that can be said about any number of running backs this deep into the season). So let's be real: great RBs like Murray shouldn't be this inefficient week after week. He's dangerously close to becoming a TD-dependent RB2/3. It all depends whether Derrick Henry can sustain 10+ touches a game.

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Around the league, Larry Fitzgerald reportedly might sign on with Arizona for another year. There had been speculation for months that he could retire in January. But there are so many question marks at QB, in a world where someone like Blaine Gabbert's throwing to him for 16 games, there's legit concern he won't come close to sustaining WR1 or even WR2 production.

With Will Fuller sidelined, Bruce Ellington is getting some hype as Houston's short-term #2 wideout. Don't buy into it. Well, maybe he can pull in four catches for 45 yards. But unless you're desperate for a low-ceiling WR4, look elsewhere.

An old friend on this site asked me yesterday about undervalued QBs for the fantasy playoffs. If you can still make trades--or if you're in a shallow enough league where these guys are available--check out Philip Rivers and Derek Carr. Both have near-elite potential when the matchup's right, and they have pretty favorable matchups during the fantasy playoffs.