What’s the best way to shake off those Monday morning blues? Or painfully re-live your Sunday letdown? My weekly 1,500+ word weekend fantasy extravaganza, highlighting each Sunday team’s most notable fantasy storyline.
Before jumping in, a quick word on my podcast (https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013) and “50/50 DFS Lineup of the Week.” The bargains/busts podcast mentioned 13 overrated/underrated players. A quick review shows that 12 of them hit, including warning against Kareem Hunt, Chris Thompson, Michael Crabtree, and Cameron Brate and propping up eye-poppingly cheap/undervalued guys like Kenyan Drake, Marquise Goodwin, and Vernon Davis.
For the 50/50 contest, my lineup is currently in the top 3%-4% with only one game to go. It includes Week 9’s top two point scorers—Alvin Kamara and T.Y. Hilton—as well as the second best DST, third best QB, and sixth best TE. This marks my fourth or fifth of eight lineups that could have profited in tournament competitions (where the top 17% or so win).
As always, I’ll celebrate the successes and be the first to point out my failures. Fantasy football is not random; there are predictive elements to it. I’ll keep researching just as hard this week in the hopes of sustaining this run.
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Ravens – Joe Flacco had only his second two-TD game of the year while chucking a season-high 52 passes. It was also the first time Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace have played together in four weeks. With a decent running game and improved defense—and a favorable schedule after the Week 10 bye—it’s conceivable that Flacco, who entered Week 9 as the 30th best fantasy QB, will be a top 20 QB going forward.
Titans – In his last three games, DeMarco Murray has 118 rushing yards on 39 carries (3.0 YPC). He barely out-touched Derrick Henry yesterday, did worse from a fantasy perspective, and has a lower YPC on the season. Henry could be one more big game away from taking over the 1A job.
Buccaneers – What a miserable situation for a franchise with serious playoff aspirations this summer. Doug Martin has been barely mediocre since his Week 5 “welcome back” party. Now Peyton Barber is suddenly no worse than a strong handcuff. And Jameis Winston’s shoulder injury simply shielded him bearing more blame for another erratic outing. After next season, both he and Mike Evans could become free agents. It’s fair to wonder if this collection of Bucs have only one more year to figure this all out.
Saints – I chose Alvin Kamara over Mark Ingram in my 50/50 DFS Lineup of the Week, and he came through with the NFL’s second most Week 9 fantasy points (more on that later). He’s an RB1, plain and simple, and he could be a top-3 draft pick in 2019 after the Saints presumably pass on re-signing a then-29-year-old Mark Ingram.
Rams – Jared Goff was nearly flawless, and the 6-2 Rams look like an NFC title contender. Someone from the future could have told me in July that this would happen, and I still wouldn’t have believed it. Congrats to those who did see it coming.
Giants – Orleans Darkwa ran well again, far exceeding expectations I had for him a month ago. Still, with the frequency that the Giants play from behind, it’s hard to imagine him being more than a weekly RB2/3.
Broncos – My prediction that Brock Osweiler won’t start another game might actually come true. He was abysmal as expected. While Paxton Lynch might not be better, at least there’s growth potential. Denver’s offense has been in flux for three years. It helps explain why Demaryius Thomas earned his first TD yesterday in 16 games.
Eagles – Everything was clicking for Philly yesterday. Most notably, Jay Ajayi dominated with only eight carries. I wrote last week that LeGarrette Blount wouldn’t hold onto the starting job for long. He was the Eagles’ fourth most effective RB yesterday. He’s about to be worthless in fantasy.
Falcons – Atlanta will now be lucky to win nine games, meaning they’re a longshot to make the playoffs. It’s hard to believe Matt Ryan entered the week ranked 21st among fantasy QBs. Realistically he won’t finish in the top 14, which would have seemed inconceivable a few weeks ago.
Panthers – No Kelvin Benjamin? No problem. Cam Newton’s legs carried Carolina to a big win. That said, his QB rating was only a 71—the highest mark since his October 8 victory over Detroit. One has to wonder whether anyone beyond Devin Funchess (and Greg Olsen when he returns) will help Cam sustain QB1 production.
Bengals – I’ve been on the Joe Mixon bandwagon since he fell into Cincy’s lap on draft day. However, he’s been atrocious on the ground (3.0 YPC), and he’s not earning many scoring opportunities. While his pass-catching ability keeps him on the RB2/3 radar, he’s not a weekly starter and probably won’t be until Cincy’s offense turns things around in 2018 or beyond.
Jaguars – Marqise Lee was a mid-range WR1 yesterday despite a consensus #37 ranking by 100+ experts. He has three straight 70+ yard performances and is a weekly WR3/4. Not bad for playing with one of the NFL’s least effective fantasy QBs.
Colts – While researching ahead of Week 9, I eyeballed T.Y. Hilton as a breakout candidate and placed him in my 50/50 Lineup of the Week. That despite averaging two catches for 20 yards and no scores in his last three games. Timing is everything, and it seemed Jacoby Brissett would lean on Hilton more heavily than usual. As a result, those who started him in fantasy or DFS were rewarded with the weekend’s highest scoring fantasy player.
Texans – On my weekend podcast, I predicted 200 yards and a TD for Tom Savage: https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-9-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts. He finished with 219 and TD. Now people can go back to benching him, just like Houston should have all along.
Cardinals – Adrian Peterson destroyed the anemic 49ers D on 37 carries. Game flow facilitated his usage, as Arizona led the whole way. With remaining matchups against Seattle (twice), Houston, Jacksonville, the Rams, Tennessee, Washington, the Giants, the Cards will be lucky to win two more games. Game flow will go against AP for most of the rest of the season.
49ers – Carlos Hyde continues to produce, despite my weekly warnings. So there’s that miss. Another notable fantasy storyline is the universally ignored Marquise Goodwin, who converted a healthy eight targets into two catches for 68 yards. I pushed him as a great dart throw on my podcast. He should be viewed as a weekly WR3/4 with Pierre Garcon sidelined for the year.
Redskins – Vernon Davis posted more yards than Jordan Reed had since Week 12 last season. With four 65-yard games in his past five contests, Davis is easily the NFL’s best backup TE and arguably should be starting over a presumably less-than-100% Reed.
Seahawks – Thomas Rawls offered a glimmer of hope in Seattle’s backfield. Since the summer this blog has pushed him as the most talented Seahawk RB when healthy; he deserves to be the starter going forward.
Chiefs – Kareem Hunt was the #1 fantasy RB thru three games and has been an RB2 ever since. As shared on my podcast and on this blog, Hunt has been extremely overrated in recent weeks. But I like his potential after the Week 10 bye; if you can snag him for high-end RB2 value, you should come out ahead.
Cowboys – Terrance Williams came out of nowhere to secure all nine targets for 141 yards. Do not—I repeat, do not—burn a waiver pick on him. He remains the fourth or fifth option in this offense, and even if/when Zeke Elliott is suspended, he’ll remain the fourth or fifth option.
Raiders – After losing last week, Oakland could afford to lose just one more game to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. They came up huge in yesterday’s road win over Miami. Marshawn Lynch had his best game of the season. View it as a golden opportunity to sell high.
Dolphins – As I pointed out yesterday, the fantasy universe can’t rank Jay Cutler 18th among QBs while calling Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker must-start WRs. Cutler came through in a back-against-the-wall effort, keeping his season alive for at least another game or two. Keep in mind, the Raiders’ D is awful. Next week in Carolina, Cutler will be awful. Meanwhile, while Kenyan Drake barely out-touched Damien Williams, he certainly outplayed him, despite ceding a TD to Williams. Drake is the RB to roster in this backfield.
Before jumping in, a quick word on my podcast (https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013) and “50/50 DFS Lineup of the Week.” The bargains/busts podcast mentioned 13 overrated/underrated players. A quick review shows that 12 of them hit, including warning against Kareem Hunt, Chris Thompson, Michael Crabtree, and Cameron Brate and propping up eye-poppingly cheap/undervalued guys like Kenyan Drake, Marquise Goodwin, and Vernon Davis.
For the 50/50 contest, my lineup is currently in the top 3%-4% with only one game to go. It includes Week 9’s top two point scorers—Alvin Kamara and T.Y. Hilton—as well as the second best DST, third best QB, and sixth best TE. This marks my fourth or fifth of eight lineups that could have profited in tournament competitions (where the top 17% or so win).
As always, I’ll celebrate the successes and be the first to point out my failures. Fantasy football is not random; there are predictive elements to it. I’ll keep researching just as hard this week in the hopes of sustaining this run.
---
Ravens – Joe Flacco had only his second two-TD game of the year while chucking a season-high 52 passes. It was also the first time Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace have played together in four weeks. With a decent running game and improved defense—and a favorable schedule after the Week 10 bye—it’s conceivable that Flacco, who entered Week 9 as the 30th best fantasy QB, will be a top 20 QB going forward.
Titans – In his last three games, DeMarco Murray has 118 rushing yards on 39 carries (3.0 YPC). He barely out-touched Derrick Henry yesterday, did worse from a fantasy perspective, and has a lower YPC on the season. Henry could be one more big game away from taking over the 1A job.
Buccaneers – What a miserable situation for a franchise with serious playoff aspirations this summer. Doug Martin has been barely mediocre since his Week 5 “welcome back” party. Now Peyton Barber is suddenly no worse than a strong handcuff. And Jameis Winston’s shoulder injury simply shielded him bearing more blame for another erratic outing. After next season, both he and Mike Evans could become free agents. It’s fair to wonder if this collection of Bucs have only one more year to figure this all out.
Saints – I chose Alvin Kamara over Mark Ingram in my 50/50 DFS Lineup of the Week, and he came through with the NFL’s second most Week 9 fantasy points (more on that later). He’s an RB1, plain and simple, and he could be a top-3 draft pick in 2019 after the Saints presumably pass on re-signing a then-29-year-old Mark Ingram.
Rams – Jared Goff was nearly flawless, and the 6-2 Rams look like an NFC title contender. Someone from the future could have told me in July that this would happen, and I still wouldn’t have believed it. Congrats to those who did see it coming.
Giants – Orleans Darkwa ran well again, far exceeding expectations I had for him a month ago. Still, with the frequency that the Giants play from behind, it’s hard to imagine him being more than a weekly RB2/3.
Broncos – My prediction that Brock Osweiler won’t start another game might actually come true. He was abysmal as expected. While Paxton Lynch might not be better, at least there’s growth potential. Denver’s offense has been in flux for three years. It helps explain why Demaryius Thomas earned his first TD yesterday in 16 games.
Eagles – Everything was clicking for Philly yesterday. Most notably, Jay Ajayi dominated with only eight carries. I wrote last week that LeGarrette Blount wouldn’t hold onto the starting job for long. He was the Eagles’ fourth most effective RB yesterday. He’s about to be worthless in fantasy.
Falcons – Atlanta will now be lucky to win nine games, meaning they’re a longshot to make the playoffs. It’s hard to believe Matt Ryan entered the week ranked 21st among fantasy QBs. Realistically he won’t finish in the top 14, which would have seemed inconceivable a few weeks ago.
Panthers – No Kelvin Benjamin? No problem. Cam Newton’s legs carried Carolina to a big win. That said, his QB rating was only a 71—the highest mark since his October 8 victory over Detroit. One has to wonder whether anyone beyond Devin Funchess (and Greg Olsen when he returns) will help Cam sustain QB1 production.
Bengals – I’ve been on the Joe Mixon bandwagon since he fell into Cincy’s lap on draft day. However, he’s been atrocious on the ground (3.0 YPC), and he’s not earning many scoring opportunities. While his pass-catching ability keeps him on the RB2/3 radar, he’s not a weekly starter and probably won’t be until Cincy’s offense turns things around in 2018 or beyond.
Jaguars – Marqise Lee was a mid-range WR1 yesterday despite a consensus #37 ranking by 100+ experts. He has three straight 70+ yard performances and is a weekly WR3/4. Not bad for playing with one of the NFL’s least effective fantasy QBs.
Colts – While researching ahead of Week 9, I eyeballed T.Y. Hilton as a breakout candidate and placed him in my 50/50 Lineup of the Week. That despite averaging two catches for 20 yards and no scores in his last three games. Timing is everything, and it seemed Jacoby Brissett would lean on Hilton more heavily than usual. As a result, those who started him in fantasy or DFS were rewarded with the weekend’s highest scoring fantasy player.
Texans – On my weekend podcast, I predicted 200 yards and a TD for Tom Savage: https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-9-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts. He finished with 219 and TD. Now people can go back to benching him, just like Houston should have all along.
Cardinals – Adrian Peterson destroyed the anemic 49ers D on 37 carries. Game flow facilitated his usage, as Arizona led the whole way. With remaining matchups against Seattle (twice), Houston, Jacksonville, the Rams, Tennessee, Washington, the Giants, the Cards will be lucky to win two more games. Game flow will go against AP for most of the rest of the season.
49ers – Carlos Hyde continues to produce, despite my weekly warnings. So there’s that miss. Another notable fantasy storyline is the universally ignored Marquise Goodwin, who converted a healthy eight targets into two catches for 68 yards. I pushed him as a great dart throw on my podcast. He should be viewed as a weekly WR3/4 with Pierre Garcon sidelined for the year.
Redskins – Vernon Davis posted more yards than Jordan Reed had since Week 12 last season. With four 65-yard games in his past five contests, Davis is easily the NFL’s best backup TE and arguably should be starting over a presumably less-than-100% Reed.
Seahawks – Thomas Rawls offered a glimmer of hope in Seattle’s backfield. Since the summer this blog has pushed him as the most talented Seahawk RB when healthy; he deserves to be the starter going forward.
Chiefs – Kareem Hunt was the #1 fantasy RB thru three games and has been an RB2 ever since. As shared on my podcast and on this blog, Hunt has been extremely overrated in recent weeks. But I like his potential after the Week 10 bye; if you can snag him for high-end RB2 value, you should come out ahead.
Cowboys – Terrance Williams came out of nowhere to secure all nine targets for 141 yards. Do not—I repeat, do not—burn a waiver pick on him. He remains the fourth or fifth option in this offense, and even if/when Zeke Elliott is suspended, he’ll remain the fourth or fifth option.
Raiders – After losing last week, Oakland could afford to lose just one more game to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. They came up huge in yesterday’s road win over Miami. Marshawn Lynch had his best game of the season. View it as a golden opportunity to sell high.
Dolphins – As I pointed out yesterday, the fantasy universe can’t rank Jay Cutler 18th among QBs while calling Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker must-start WRs. Cutler came through in a back-against-the-wall effort, keeping his season alive for at least another game or two. Keep in mind, the Raiders’ D is awful. Next week in Carolina, Cutler will be awful. Meanwhile, while Kenyan Drake barely out-touched Damien Williams, he certainly outplayed him, despite ceding a TD to Williams. Drake is the RB to roster in this backfield.