About to roll right into some of the most notable fantasy implications of Sunday’s games. But first, in the interest of transparency, I hit 10 out of 17 bargains/busts, as shared on my weekend 4:44 podcast:
https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-10-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts
Big misses on guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tom Brady, Devonta Freeman, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Big hits on guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Jones, Chris Godwin, Garrett Celek, and Austin Hooper. I’ve now hit 98 of 155 on the season, or 63%.
On the flip side, I missed on my 50/50 DFS lineup. It’s always helpful to have one or two big-time performers, and I had only three “very good performers” and mediocrity elsewhere despite big investments on Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones. I’m now 6-of-9 on the season.
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Saints – Alvin Kamara. What more can be said? Mark Ingram took care of touches around the goal line, but Kamara’s 6.5 YPC and spectacular pass-catching make him a uniquely talented fantasy asset.
Bills – My repeated praise this past week of Tyrod Taylor looks downright stupid this morning. Since Buffalo’s schedule will soften after next week, I’ll reserve complete judgment until December.
Packers – Is Jamaal Williams Green Bay’s last RB standing? Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery were both knocked out Sunday, leaving Williams as a potential Week 11 bell-cow. As I explained in my latest podcast and in a column last week, the Packers’ remaining opposing run defenses are as brutal as can be imagined. Williams could be the biggest RB waiver add this week. But he shouldn’t be. Think 18 carries for 55 yards next weekend against Baltimore.
Bears – I couldn’t have been more wrong about Chicago beating Green Bay. I also never believed Dontrelle Inman could have an impact this season. He came to play yesterday, and it’ll be interesting to see if he maintains a decent role on a team desperate for a #1 receiver.
Browns – After looking pretty bad in his first five games, Isaiah Crowell has turned things around in three of his last four. That he’s fared particularly well in Houston, in Detroit, and against Minnesota is a good sign.
Lions – I’ve continued to wait patiently (but not that patiently) for Theo Riddick to replicate the potential he showed in 2015. While the team looks somewhat different now than it did then, we’re starting to see the Riddick of old these past two weeks. He was a top 14 PPR RB this weekend and is one of the better value plays at that position going forward.
Bengals – Cincy went away from the running game, which historically has not bode well. Joe Mixon looked capable with nine carries for 37 yards and a score. With Jeremy Hill out for the year, Mixon should snap back into the 14-16 touch range going forward. The problem is that most of his remaining opponents likely will keep him in check.
Titans – Those who equipped themselves with Corey Davis weeks ago are now seeing the results. Although his four catches for 48 yards don’t seem like much, he was Marcus Mariota’s most targeted receiver (10). Davis is a potential weekly starter down the stretch.
Steelers – Owning a pedestrian 3.8 YPC, Le’Veon Bell remains a near-elite RB because Pittsburgh is running him into the ground. I’ve been writing about this for much of the season, and nothing’s changing. And why should it? Bell’s a free agent after this season, and it’s highly unlikely the team will pay an overworked franchise RB what he’s worth—particularly one who’s missed 17 games in five seasons. Bell’s on pace for 466 touches this year, which would place him second all-time behind James Wilder’s 492. If you’re banking on keeping him in dynasty, get back to me next November and tell me how that’s going.
Colts – There was a Donte Moncrief sighting yesterday. Don’t adjust your roster. Just appreciate that he remains a terrific NFL talent, even though his fantasy prospects (four targets in the past three weeks) remain dim this season.
Jets – Elijah McGuire might never be a top 12-caliber fantasy running back. But he out-touched Bilal Powell in a game Powell was expected to excel in (consensus 15th ranked Week 10 RB). With Matt Forte’s immediate future in doubt, McGuire will be a volume-dependent plug-in after the Week 11 bye.
Buccaneers – I wanted and expected more out of Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I’ll take the hit on that one. The bigger story is Doug Martin turning in another disastrous effort. He’s essentially detached from the passing game and has a 3.0 YPC with one TD in the past four games. He shouldn’t be starting right now—in reality or on fantasy rosters.
Vikings – On the weekend I praise Case Keenum, he has a career day. That doesn’t mean we won’t see Teddy Bridgewater this season. But it’s a reminder that Minnesota, with five straight wins with Keenum under center, is on too good a roll to shift key personnel.
Redskins – I thought Rob Kelley would do more. Instead, Samaje Perine returns to relevance and is a must-roster RB in most leagues in case he can make strides down the stretch.
Chargers – Two weeks ago I warned about Melvin Gordon in my Monday morning column, adding “His inefficiency since entering the league is alarming; I’m knocking him down several spots in my internal dynasty league rankings” (http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/10/most-notable-fantasy-impacts-of-week-8.html). Coming off a bye week, Gordon was abysmal yesterday, while upstart backup Austin Ekeler took a big step forward. As strange as it might sound, it’s entirely conceivable Gordon won’t be the Chargers’ Week 1 starter next season.
Jaguars – I’m continually amazed how many people undervalue Marqise Lee. Regardless of Blake Bortles’ troubles, the often forgotten wideout is a legit weekly flex starter.
Texans – Tom Savage was awful as expected. DeAndre Hopkins did better than expected, but don’t buy into it.
Rams – Robert Woods is the real deal. Never saw that coming until he was already an apparent real deal.
Cowboys – I’ve been saying for weeks that if you’re going to roster one backup Dallas RB, make it Alfred Morris. I also warned this past week that Morris could be replaced at the drop of a hat—that this is a true hot-hand situation. Morris survived round 1 with a very respectable 11 carries for 53 yards. However, while many are claiming that Morris is now the clear lead back, Rod Smith had seven touches and looked just as capable.
Falcons – With Devonta Freeman knocked out in the first quarter, Tevin Coleman rumbled for RB1 production. Many of you—and I mean many of you—have presented trades to me this season that feature giving away Coleman. I can’t think of a time when I wrote, “Yes, trade him away.” He’s the #1 non-starting RB in fantasy—a PPR RB2 when Freeman’s on the field, and an RB1 if Freeman misses time.
Giants – Of course the Giants were going to lose to the 0-9 Niners. It seems so obvious now, though that doesn’t make their players fantasy pariahs. I pushed two guys as underrated in my weekend podcast—and particularly the cheap/under-rostered Sterling Shepard (11-142), who I also used in my failed 50/50 DFS lineup. Shepard, a guy I’ve been pushing hard on this page for weeks, was available in a ton of ESPN leagues a few weeks ago and is still available in 20%. Absolutely ridiculous.
49ers – Last week I urged readers to pick up a receiver who wasn’t even ranked in the top 45 for Week 9 (Marquise Goodwin). This past weekend I went big on Garrett Celek, who was also featured in my bargains/busts podcast. Heading into tonight, Celek is Week 10’s fourth highest scoring fantasy TE. A reminder that unrostered bargains are everywhere.
Patriots – There have been two New England wide receiver TDs in their past four games. Yesterday it was all running backs, as each of their three contributors scored. (Note that Mike Gillislee was mercifully benched.) Bill Belichick could move 180 degrees in the other direction next week, so take this at face value: New England continues to utilize three backs who are all capable of helping fantasy teams—remarkably, sometimes in the same game.
Broncos – Why did I think Denver’s D would step up? And someone remind me why Brock Osweiler is still out there? Not that he was terrible, but he was facing a sub-par pass D, and he probably won’t be asked to start a game in Denver next year. From a fantasy perspective, if you’re still rolling out C.J. Anderson these days, hopefully you’re not expecting more than RB3 numbers.
https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-10-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts
Big misses on guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tom Brady, Devonta Freeman, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Big hits on guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Jones, Chris Godwin, Garrett Celek, and Austin Hooper. I’ve now hit 98 of 155 on the season, or 63%.
On the flip side, I missed on my 50/50 DFS lineup. It’s always helpful to have one or two big-time performers, and I had only three “very good performers” and mediocrity elsewhere despite big investments on Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones. I’m now 6-of-9 on the season.
---
Saints – Alvin Kamara. What more can be said? Mark Ingram took care of touches around the goal line, but Kamara’s 6.5 YPC and spectacular pass-catching make him a uniquely talented fantasy asset.
Bills – My repeated praise this past week of Tyrod Taylor looks downright stupid this morning. Since Buffalo’s schedule will soften after next week, I’ll reserve complete judgment until December.
Packers – Is Jamaal Williams Green Bay’s last RB standing? Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery were both knocked out Sunday, leaving Williams as a potential Week 11 bell-cow. As I explained in my latest podcast and in a column last week, the Packers’ remaining opposing run defenses are as brutal as can be imagined. Williams could be the biggest RB waiver add this week. But he shouldn’t be. Think 18 carries for 55 yards next weekend against Baltimore.
Bears – I couldn’t have been more wrong about Chicago beating Green Bay. I also never believed Dontrelle Inman could have an impact this season. He came to play yesterday, and it’ll be interesting to see if he maintains a decent role on a team desperate for a #1 receiver.
Browns – After looking pretty bad in his first five games, Isaiah Crowell has turned things around in three of his last four. That he’s fared particularly well in Houston, in Detroit, and against Minnesota is a good sign.
Lions – I’ve continued to wait patiently (but not that patiently) for Theo Riddick to replicate the potential he showed in 2015. While the team looks somewhat different now than it did then, we’re starting to see the Riddick of old these past two weeks. He was a top 14 PPR RB this weekend and is one of the better value plays at that position going forward.
Bengals – Cincy went away from the running game, which historically has not bode well. Joe Mixon looked capable with nine carries for 37 yards and a score. With Jeremy Hill out for the year, Mixon should snap back into the 14-16 touch range going forward. The problem is that most of his remaining opponents likely will keep him in check.
Titans – Those who equipped themselves with Corey Davis weeks ago are now seeing the results. Although his four catches for 48 yards don’t seem like much, he was Marcus Mariota’s most targeted receiver (10). Davis is a potential weekly starter down the stretch.
Steelers – Owning a pedestrian 3.8 YPC, Le’Veon Bell remains a near-elite RB because Pittsburgh is running him into the ground. I’ve been writing about this for much of the season, and nothing’s changing. And why should it? Bell’s a free agent after this season, and it’s highly unlikely the team will pay an overworked franchise RB what he’s worth—particularly one who’s missed 17 games in five seasons. Bell’s on pace for 466 touches this year, which would place him second all-time behind James Wilder’s 492. If you’re banking on keeping him in dynasty, get back to me next November and tell me how that’s going.
Colts – There was a Donte Moncrief sighting yesterday. Don’t adjust your roster. Just appreciate that he remains a terrific NFL talent, even though his fantasy prospects (four targets in the past three weeks) remain dim this season.
Jets – Elijah McGuire might never be a top 12-caliber fantasy running back. But he out-touched Bilal Powell in a game Powell was expected to excel in (consensus 15th ranked Week 10 RB). With Matt Forte’s immediate future in doubt, McGuire will be a volume-dependent plug-in after the Week 11 bye.
Buccaneers – I wanted and expected more out of Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I’ll take the hit on that one. The bigger story is Doug Martin turning in another disastrous effort. He’s essentially detached from the passing game and has a 3.0 YPC with one TD in the past four games. He shouldn’t be starting right now—in reality or on fantasy rosters.
Vikings – On the weekend I praise Case Keenum, he has a career day. That doesn’t mean we won’t see Teddy Bridgewater this season. But it’s a reminder that Minnesota, with five straight wins with Keenum under center, is on too good a roll to shift key personnel.
Redskins – I thought Rob Kelley would do more. Instead, Samaje Perine returns to relevance and is a must-roster RB in most leagues in case he can make strides down the stretch.
Chargers – Two weeks ago I warned about Melvin Gordon in my Monday morning column, adding “His inefficiency since entering the league is alarming; I’m knocking him down several spots in my internal dynasty league rankings” (http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/10/most-notable-fantasy-impacts-of-week-8.html). Coming off a bye week, Gordon was abysmal yesterday, while upstart backup Austin Ekeler took a big step forward. As strange as it might sound, it’s entirely conceivable Gordon won’t be the Chargers’ Week 1 starter next season.
Jaguars – I’m continually amazed how many people undervalue Marqise Lee. Regardless of Blake Bortles’ troubles, the often forgotten wideout is a legit weekly flex starter.
Texans – Tom Savage was awful as expected. DeAndre Hopkins did better than expected, but don’t buy into it.
Rams – Robert Woods is the real deal. Never saw that coming until he was already an apparent real deal.
Cowboys – I’ve been saying for weeks that if you’re going to roster one backup Dallas RB, make it Alfred Morris. I also warned this past week that Morris could be replaced at the drop of a hat—that this is a true hot-hand situation. Morris survived round 1 with a very respectable 11 carries for 53 yards. However, while many are claiming that Morris is now the clear lead back, Rod Smith had seven touches and looked just as capable.
Falcons – With Devonta Freeman knocked out in the first quarter, Tevin Coleman rumbled for RB1 production. Many of you—and I mean many of you—have presented trades to me this season that feature giving away Coleman. I can’t think of a time when I wrote, “Yes, trade him away.” He’s the #1 non-starting RB in fantasy—a PPR RB2 when Freeman’s on the field, and an RB1 if Freeman misses time.
Giants – Of course the Giants were going to lose to the 0-9 Niners. It seems so obvious now, though that doesn’t make their players fantasy pariahs. I pushed two guys as underrated in my weekend podcast—and particularly the cheap/under-rostered Sterling Shepard (11-142), who I also used in my failed 50/50 DFS lineup. Shepard, a guy I’ve been pushing hard on this page for weeks, was available in a ton of ESPN leagues a few weeks ago and is still available in 20%. Absolutely ridiculous.
49ers – Last week I urged readers to pick up a receiver who wasn’t even ranked in the top 45 for Week 9 (Marquise Goodwin). This past weekend I went big on Garrett Celek, who was also featured in my bargains/busts podcast. Heading into tonight, Celek is Week 10’s fourth highest scoring fantasy TE. A reminder that unrostered bargains are everywhere.
Patriots – There have been two New England wide receiver TDs in their past four games. Yesterday it was all running backs, as each of their three contributors scored. (Note that Mike Gillislee was mercifully benched.) Bill Belichick could move 180 degrees in the other direction next week, so take this at face value: New England continues to utilize three backs who are all capable of helping fantasy teams—remarkably, sometimes in the same game.
Broncos – Why did I think Denver’s D would step up? And someone remind me why Brock Osweiler is still out there? Not that he was terrible, but he was facing a sub-par pass D, and he probably won’t be asked to start a game in Denver next year. From a fantasy perspective, if you’re still rolling out C.J. Anderson these days, hopefully you’re not expecting more than RB3 numbers.