I looked back this morning to see how many times I've discussed Ezekiel Elliott in a blog post since August, spanning about 100 columns. 24 times. 24 times I've mentioned at least one of various ramifications of his fantasy value, based not only on his likelihood of suspension this season, but also on his likelihood of missing some or all of this year's fantasy playoffs.
In a season where abrupt injuries have knocked out two dozen or more medium- to high-impact fantasy players, the Elliott saga has dragged on, forcing fantasy managers to figure out when and how to trade for him, or trade him away--or sometimes do both in the same season.
I've issued dual warnings for several weeks, as his suspension prospects looked increasingly likely: If you need more firepower to reach the fantasy playoffs, trade him away. If you're looking good for the playoffs, try to acquire him for the semis and/or finals.
As it currently stands, Zeke's scheduled to return in Week 16. The Second Circuit Court of Appeals will weigh in on December 1. No one should expect the court to rule in Zeke's favor. If you're a near-lock for a first-round bye in your fantasy playoffs and have enough talent to get through the semis, feel fortunate you'll have him back in a Week 16 home matchup against Seattle. If you're 5-5 and need to win most of your remaining regular season games, and if you managed to trade him away for a WR2-caliber player, congrats on getting something useful in return.
As for who's replacing Elliott, Alfred Morris gets the first crack, but as I've been telling people one-on-one, he and Rod Smith and Darren McFadden each have about a 33.3% chance of leading this backfield. I have Morris and doubt I'll start him this week.
Elsewhere around the league, with Zach Miller's career likely over, and with Dion Sims questionable, we might finally see what second-round TE Adam Shaheen can do in Chicago. A favorable matchup and a dearth of receiving talent gives the rookie--who's available in 99.8% of ESPN leagues--a real shot at fantasy relevance. I've added him in my league. If you're not currently starting a TE1, he should be viewed as a worthwhile Week 10 dart throw if Sims sits or is less than 100%.
Knee swelling has forced Matt Forte out this weekend, and he could miss more time than that. Bilal Powell is now on the RB2 radar, while Elijah McGuire should be rostered in most leagues.
The long-awaited return of Teddy Bridgewater could happen this weekend if Case Keenum struggles. There's plenty of hype surrounding the 25-year-old, who hasn't thrown a regular season pass since the 2015 season. Now fully recovered from a serious knee injury, it's only a matter of time before he sees the field. But is that a good thing? Keenum (and Minnesota's running game and defense) have guided Minnesota to four straight wins. He surely doesn't have Bridgewater's upside, but he's probably better than a dozen QBs currently starting around the league.
While Bridgewater showed promise in his first and second seasons, his career 28/21 TD/INT ratio is sub-par, and he takes way too many sacks (83 in 29 games, vs. Keenum's 54 in 33 games). In fact, this year Keenum has absorbed only five sacks in seven games. His experience gives the Vikings an edge, whereas Bridgewater is more of a leap of faith.
If you're leaning on guys like Adam Thielen and Jerick McKinnon, hope that Keenum keeps the job. A change at QB rarely maintains the status quo elsewhere.
In a season where abrupt injuries have knocked out two dozen or more medium- to high-impact fantasy players, the Elliott saga has dragged on, forcing fantasy managers to figure out when and how to trade for him, or trade him away--or sometimes do both in the same season.
I've issued dual warnings for several weeks, as his suspension prospects looked increasingly likely: If you need more firepower to reach the fantasy playoffs, trade him away. If you're looking good for the playoffs, try to acquire him for the semis and/or finals.
As it currently stands, Zeke's scheduled to return in Week 16. The Second Circuit Court of Appeals will weigh in on December 1. No one should expect the court to rule in Zeke's favor. If you're a near-lock for a first-round bye in your fantasy playoffs and have enough talent to get through the semis, feel fortunate you'll have him back in a Week 16 home matchup against Seattle. If you're 5-5 and need to win most of your remaining regular season games, and if you managed to trade him away for a WR2-caliber player, congrats on getting something useful in return.
As for who's replacing Elliott, Alfred Morris gets the first crack, but as I've been telling people one-on-one, he and Rod Smith and Darren McFadden each have about a 33.3% chance of leading this backfield. I have Morris and doubt I'll start him this week.
Elsewhere around the league, with Zach Miller's career likely over, and with Dion Sims questionable, we might finally see what second-round TE Adam Shaheen can do in Chicago. A favorable matchup and a dearth of receiving talent gives the rookie--who's available in 99.8% of ESPN leagues--a real shot at fantasy relevance. I've added him in my league. If you're not currently starting a TE1, he should be viewed as a worthwhile Week 10 dart throw if Sims sits or is less than 100%.
Knee swelling has forced Matt Forte out this weekend, and he could miss more time than that. Bilal Powell is now on the RB2 radar, while Elijah McGuire should be rostered in most leagues.
The long-awaited return of Teddy Bridgewater could happen this weekend if Case Keenum struggles. There's plenty of hype surrounding the 25-year-old, who hasn't thrown a regular season pass since the 2015 season. Now fully recovered from a serious knee injury, it's only a matter of time before he sees the field. But is that a good thing? Keenum (and Minnesota's running game and defense) have guided Minnesota to four straight wins. He surely doesn't have Bridgewater's upside, but he's probably better than a dozen QBs currently starting around the league.
While Bridgewater showed promise in his first and second seasons, his career 28/21 TD/INT ratio is sub-par, and he takes way too many sacks (83 in 29 games, vs. Keenum's 54 in 33 games). In fact, this year Keenum has absorbed only five sacks in seven games. His experience gives the Vikings an edge, whereas Bridgewater is more of a leap of faith.
If you're leaning on guys like Adam Thielen and Jerick McKinnon, hope that Keenum keeps the job. A change at QB rarely maintains the status quo elsewhere.