What a day yesterday. And I'm not talking about all the Halloween candy my kids got for me.
The NFL enjoyed its version of musical chairs yesterday. Let's try to make sense of it.
Jay Ajayi moves from the league's worst offenses to a top 5 offensive, with only a nearly 31-year-old LeGarrette Blount in his way. The Eagles' brass insists Blount is the lead back for now. But don't believe it. Blount's playing way over his head; side by side, Ajayi is the superior talent and will be the leader within a couple weeks. Oh, and because of bye weeks, Ajayi will play only 15 games this season; of course, those rostering Ajayi will take the trade-off.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins netted only a fourth-rounder for a top-20 RB (with top-10 upside with a better o-line) signed for cheap thru next season. I don't get it.
Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams are expected to split backfield duties in Miami. I've been pushing Drake hard since the summer and have had him rostered for weeks in my league. I still believe he'll be the lead guy and is an RB3/4 out of the gate, with RB2 upside if he can distance himself from williams. He's more talented than many people realize.
Kelvin Benjamin moves to the Bills, which again I don't understand. But what do I know: the Panthers have observed him up close for years and decided they didn't need their #1 receiver this season. Fantasy's 24th highest scoring wideout, Benjamin's numbers should actually improve in Buffalo, whose receiving game has lacked a true #1 since trading Sammy Watkins. Oh, and because of bye weeks, Benjamin is in line to play 17 games this season. So congrats if you're benefiting from that scheduling coup.
And let's take a moment to assess Tyrod Taylor. This preseason he was off nearly every expert's fantasy radar. In June I called his QB-19 average draft position "insanely misguided": http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/06/32-teams-in-32-days-day-1-buffalo-bills.html Despite not having a single reliable receiver (outside of the injured Charles Clay, who was also severely underrated this preseason), Taylor has posted high-end QB2 numbers. Imagine what he can do with the addition of Benjamin. His remaining schedule is favorable, including home games against the Patriots, Colts, and Dolphins in weeks 13-15. Available in 32% of ESPN leagues, Taylor will be a top 12 fantasy QB the rest of the way.
In Carolina, Devin Funchess will be the de facto #1 receiver until Greg Olsen returns. We'll see if Funchess rises to the occasion. Ed Dickson and Curtis Samuel get short-term bumps, with Samuel offering the most fantasy playoff upside if he can take the next step in his rookie development.
Duane Brown heads to the Seahawks. A top-20 NFL tackle, Brown should help Seattle's running game and offer Russell Wilson a bit more security. The question is "How much?" For a guy who held out most of the season, we'll see how quickly he returns to prime form, and whether his presence materially impacts an offense that's having no trouble through the air but a whole heap of issues on the ground.
Jimmy Garoppolo moves to the 49ers, becoming either a franchise QB or another in a long line of NFL-backups-turned-busts. Having started only two games since entering the NFL in 2014, Garoppolo shifts from an elite-level offense to a bottom-run offense. It's hard to envision him turning things round this season. More likely, if the Niners can add a top 25 WR in the offseason, Garoppolo could be in the top 18 QB conversation.
In other news, Ezekiel Elliott moved another step closer to his six-game suspension. I keep warning about this, and I know some have pushed back, insisting he'll play all year. The reality is that Elliott is running out of courtrooms. Unless something unexpected happens, expect his six-game suspension to stick, and for the star RB to return in Week 15. Alfred Morris should get the first crack as his replacement, with Rod Smith and Darren McFadden close behind. Morris is a great desperation play this week, but don't get caught up thinking any of these guys will exceed top 20 RB production while Zeke's out.
Finally, last week I went out on a limb by insisting David Johnson was done for the year, despite reports suggesting he could return as early as Week 12. My point was that the Cardinals' season is over, and there's no good reason to risk re-injury to an elite NFL running back in meaningless late-season games. Yesterday head coach Bruce Arians said he doesn't expect Johnson to return. That should put this issue to rest.
The NFL enjoyed its version of musical chairs yesterday. Let's try to make sense of it.
Jay Ajayi moves from the league's worst offenses to a top 5 offensive, with only a nearly 31-year-old LeGarrette Blount in his way. The Eagles' brass insists Blount is the lead back for now. But don't believe it. Blount's playing way over his head; side by side, Ajayi is the superior talent and will be the leader within a couple weeks. Oh, and because of bye weeks, Ajayi will play only 15 games this season; of course, those rostering Ajayi will take the trade-off.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins netted only a fourth-rounder for a top-20 RB (with top-10 upside with a better o-line) signed for cheap thru next season. I don't get it.
Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams are expected to split backfield duties in Miami. I've been pushing Drake hard since the summer and have had him rostered for weeks in my league. I still believe he'll be the lead guy and is an RB3/4 out of the gate, with RB2 upside if he can distance himself from williams. He's more talented than many people realize.
Kelvin Benjamin moves to the Bills, which again I don't understand. But what do I know: the Panthers have observed him up close for years and decided they didn't need their #1 receiver this season. Fantasy's 24th highest scoring wideout, Benjamin's numbers should actually improve in Buffalo, whose receiving game has lacked a true #1 since trading Sammy Watkins. Oh, and because of bye weeks, Benjamin is in line to play 17 games this season. So congrats if you're benefiting from that scheduling coup.
And let's take a moment to assess Tyrod Taylor. This preseason he was off nearly every expert's fantasy radar. In June I called his QB-19 average draft position "insanely misguided": http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/06/32-teams-in-32-days-day-1-buffalo-bills.html Despite not having a single reliable receiver (outside of the injured Charles Clay, who was also severely underrated this preseason), Taylor has posted high-end QB2 numbers. Imagine what he can do with the addition of Benjamin. His remaining schedule is favorable, including home games against the Patriots, Colts, and Dolphins in weeks 13-15. Available in 32% of ESPN leagues, Taylor will be a top 12 fantasy QB the rest of the way.
In Carolina, Devin Funchess will be the de facto #1 receiver until Greg Olsen returns. We'll see if Funchess rises to the occasion. Ed Dickson and Curtis Samuel get short-term bumps, with Samuel offering the most fantasy playoff upside if he can take the next step in his rookie development.
Duane Brown heads to the Seahawks. A top-20 NFL tackle, Brown should help Seattle's running game and offer Russell Wilson a bit more security. The question is "How much?" For a guy who held out most of the season, we'll see how quickly he returns to prime form, and whether his presence materially impacts an offense that's having no trouble through the air but a whole heap of issues on the ground.
Jimmy Garoppolo moves to the 49ers, becoming either a franchise QB or another in a long line of NFL-backups-turned-busts. Having started only two games since entering the NFL in 2014, Garoppolo shifts from an elite-level offense to a bottom-run offense. It's hard to envision him turning things round this season. More likely, if the Niners can add a top 25 WR in the offseason, Garoppolo could be in the top 18 QB conversation.
In other news, Ezekiel Elliott moved another step closer to his six-game suspension. I keep warning about this, and I know some have pushed back, insisting he'll play all year. The reality is that Elliott is running out of courtrooms. Unless something unexpected happens, expect his six-game suspension to stick, and for the star RB to return in Week 15. Alfred Morris should get the first crack as his replacement, with Rod Smith and Darren McFadden close behind. Morris is a great desperation play this week, but don't get caught up thinking any of these guys will exceed top 20 RB production while Zeke's out.
Finally, last week I went out on a limb by insisting David Johnson was done for the year, despite reports suggesting he could return as early as Week 12. My point was that the Cardinals' season is over, and there's no good reason to risk re-injury to an elite NFL running back in meaningless late-season games. Yesterday head coach Bruce Arians said he doesn't expect Johnson to return. That should put this issue to rest.