Occasionally I point out the ridiculousness of rankings. Experts' predictions about this week's Dolphins show just how meaningless rankings can be.
Out of over 110 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros, Jarvis Landry is this week's consensus 10th ranked wideout. Returning from a multi-week injury, Devante parker is ranked 19th. Even Kenny Still is on some fantasy radars, as he's sitting at #40, with 20 people pushing him as a top-35 Week 9 option.
These aren't necessarily bad predictions. The opposing Raiders are down three cornerbacks and have had one of the league's worst pass defenses. In fact, opposing QBs are averaging a 108.2 QB rating--tops in the league and more than five points higher than the second-most QB-friendly defense (which happens to be the Dolphins).
Also, with mostly pass-catch-averse Jay Ajayi gone, two more adept pass-catchers--Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams--will dominate Miami's backfield.
If an NFL team has two top-20 ranked receivers, a WR4, and two RBs expected to play passing-game roles, you'd expect the QB's ranking to follow suit.
But that's not the case. The fantasy universe of experts ranks Jay Cutler 18th out of 26 QBs. He's a bottom-third option, unstartable in essentially every one-QB league. Only four experts place him in the top 14. 31 people rank him in the 20s.
The only explanation is that nearly every fantasy expert believes Cutler will get hurt or get pulled mid-game--that Landry and Parker will thrive thanks to backup QB Matt Moore. And that's entirely conceivable. But if that were the case, why is Moore ranked 28th? If everyone performs as expert consensus suggests, Cutler or Moore or both are severely undervalued.
I bring this up not to call out the fine experts putting in the time to research this stuff. But it's yet another reminder that while some rankings might make sense in a vacuum, we need to view teammates' rankings collectively; each influences the others, and any rankings that don't reflect these influences should be largely ignored.
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My latest bargains/bust podcast is live. It takes less than five minutes and hit nine out of 16 bold picks last week, and has a 60% accuracy rate on the season. If you're desperate for a receiver, try Marquise Goodwin, who somehow is 30th in the NFL in WR targets and no longer has to compete with the sidelined Pierre Garcon (7th in targets):
https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-9-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts
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And as always, here's my ideal 50/50 DFS lineup (Fan Duel scoring). I missed last week and am now 5-for 7:
QB Dak Prescott ($8,200) -- Facing a vulnerable Chiefs passing D.
RB Ezekiel Elliott ($8,900) -- A bit of a hedge for 50/50 contests, but the reality is that Zeke should be the safest RB play this week.
RB Alvin Kamara ($6,600) -- A fantastic floor and an RB2 ceiling.
WR Mike Evans ($8,500) -- A near-elite receiver with a huge floor and top-2 ceiling.
WR T.Y. Hilton ($6,600) -- Three consecutive anemic performances shouldn't deter you. He'll earn 12+ looks this weekend and will produce top-20 numbers.
WR Sterling Shepard ($5,900) -- It's easy to forget how good Shepard is. As the Giants' #1 receiver, he's a terrific bargain.
TE Vernon Davis ($5,400) -- No Jordan Reed, no Jamison Crowder. Davis has caught 61 of 81 targets since joining Washington. He's a solid streamer.
K Mike Nugent ($4,600) -- If you believe Dallas will post 24+ against Kansas City, Nugent needs to be in lineups.
DST Jaguars ($5,300) -- The best fantasy defense is at home against a vulnerable offense.
Out of over 110 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros, Jarvis Landry is this week's consensus 10th ranked wideout. Returning from a multi-week injury, Devante parker is ranked 19th. Even Kenny Still is on some fantasy radars, as he's sitting at #40, with 20 people pushing him as a top-35 Week 9 option.
These aren't necessarily bad predictions. The opposing Raiders are down three cornerbacks and have had one of the league's worst pass defenses. In fact, opposing QBs are averaging a 108.2 QB rating--tops in the league and more than five points higher than the second-most QB-friendly defense (which happens to be the Dolphins).
Also, with mostly pass-catch-averse Jay Ajayi gone, two more adept pass-catchers--Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams--will dominate Miami's backfield.
If an NFL team has two top-20 ranked receivers, a WR4, and two RBs expected to play passing-game roles, you'd expect the QB's ranking to follow suit.
But that's not the case. The fantasy universe of experts ranks Jay Cutler 18th out of 26 QBs. He's a bottom-third option, unstartable in essentially every one-QB league. Only four experts place him in the top 14. 31 people rank him in the 20s.
The only explanation is that nearly every fantasy expert believes Cutler will get hurt or get pulled mid-game--that Landry and Parker will thrive thanks to backup QB Matt Moore. And that's entirely conceivable. But if that were the case, why is Moore ranked 28th? If everyone performs as expert consensus suggests, Cutler or Moore or both are severely undervalued.
I bring this up not to call out the fine experts putting in the time to research this stuff. But it's yet another reminder that while some rankings might make sense in a vacuum, we need to view teammates' rankings collectively; each influences the others, and any rankings that don't reflect these influences should be largely ignored.
---
My latest bargains/bust podcast is live. It takes less than five minutes and hit nine out of 16 bold picks last week, and has a 60% accuracy rate on the season. If you're desperate for a receiver, try Marquise Goodwin, who somehow is 30th in the NFL in WR targets and no longer has to compete with the sidelined Pierre Garcon (7th in targets):
https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-9-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts
---
And as always, here's my ideal 50/50 DFS lineup (Fan Duel scoring). I missed last week and am now 5-for 7:
QB Dak Prescott ($8,200) -- Facing a vulnerable Chiefs passing D.
RB Ezekiel Elliott ($8,900) -- A bit of a hedge for 50/50 contests, but the reality is that Zeke should be the safest RB play this week.
RB Alvin Kamara ($6,600) -- A fantastic floor and an RB2 ceiling.
WR Mike Evans ($8,500) -- A near-elite receiver with a huge floor and top-2 ceiling.
WR T.Y. Hilton ($6,600) -- Three consecutive anemic performances shouldn't deter you. He'll earn 12+ looks this weekend and will produce top-20 numbers.
WR Sterling Shepard ($5,900) -- It's easy to forget how good Shepard is. As the Giants' #1 receiver, he's a terrific bargain.
TE Vernon Davis ($5,400) -- No Jordan Reed, no Jamison Crowder. Davis has caught 61 of 81 targets since joining Washington. He's a solid streamer.
K Mike Nugent ($4,600) -- If you believe Dallas will post 24+ against Kansas City, Nugent needs to be in lineups.
DST Jaguars ($5,300) -- The best fantasy defense is at home against a vulnerable offense.