The Raiders are the NFL's best 2-4 team. It wasn't supposed to happen this way. Last year's 12-4 Raiders were one Derek Carr injury away from legitimately challenging the Patriots for the AFC title. This season, another Carr injury contributed to two of their losses, while a last-second field last week dug a deeper hole for the team.
If they lose tonight, their season likely will be over. At 2-5, they'd realistically need to finish 8-1 to reach the postseason. Beyond Week 7, they have three uphill climbs remaining (Patriots, @ Chiefs, @ Eagles) and three big tests (Broncos, Cowboys if Zeke is playing, @ Chargers). In other words, they have to win tonight.
And despite the Raiders being a three-point underdog, I'm picking them to beat the Chiefs. As much as folks like to believe Kansas City's defense is upper-tier, they're not. Maybe Eric Berry's Week 1 injury changed this D's complexion. May some of you have picked up on things I haven't. The point is, they're getting pummeled through the air (eighth most yards per game) and on the ground (sixth most yards per game).
Equally concerning has been the loss of offensive linemen Mitch Morse in Week 2 and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif in Week 4. While the sample size is small, Kareem Hunt earned a blistering 7.6 yards per carry with a healthy o-line in weeks 1-2. Minus Morse in weeks 3 and 4, Hunt's averaged dropped to 7.2 YPC, buffeted by a game against the league's worst run D (Chargers). When Duvernay-Tardif joined Morse on the sidelines in weeks 5-6, Hunt averaged 3.4 YPC vs. two sub-par run D's based on rushing yards per game and YPC.
Morse and Duvernay-Tardif will be out once again tonight. While offensive lines don't dictate performance, they certainly can influence performance, and Hunt is not an RB1 lock by any stretch.
I would start Carr as a 250/3 QB1--better than we'll see out of the seemingly unstoppable (until last week) Alex Smith. If you followed my advice and sold high on Smith last week, great job. If you also heeded my suggestion to buy low on Carr, this is one of several games he could help you win your week. Michael Crabtree also is a must-start guy, while Amari Cooper continues to be a wait-and-see option. And if you're desperate for a WR3/4 to round out your lineup, take a flyer on Seth Roberts, who's getting just enough attention each game to be a TD threat in a high-scoring output--something I'm anticipating tonight.
On the ground, DeAndre Washington's return last week was Jalen Richard's loss, as the two jockey for backup duties. And Marshawn Lynch is what's been expected for months: an slightly slowed TD-dependent running back who the Raiders are wary of overworking, because they'll need him for the NFL playoffs (http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/08/contrarian-prediction-9-marshawn-lynch.html). With the playoffs now in doubt, it will be interesting to see if Lynch is turned loose to the tune of 20+ touches. The odds are better than 50-50, which is why I'm higher on Lynch than most people this week.
Keep in mind, ESPN is one of many sites that rank Smith better than Carr this week. Hunt is ranked 3rd, while Lynch is 23rd. Michael Crabtree is only four spots better than Tyreek Hill (ridiculous). Seth Roberts is outside the top 60 (again, ridiculous).
The game will not play out as most expect. Those who anticipate this and act on it will win the night.
If they lose tonight, their season likely will be over. At 2-5, they'd realistically need to finish 8-1 to reach the postseason. Beyond Week 7, they have three uphill climbs remaining (Patriots, @ Chiefs, @ Eagles) and three big tests (Broncos, Cowboys if Zeke is playing, @ Chargers). In other words, they have to win tonight.
And despite the Raiders being a three-point underdog, I'm picking them to beat the Chiefs. As much as folks like to believe Kansas City's defense is upper-tier, they're not. Maybe Eric Berry's Week 1 injury changed this D's complexion. May some of you have picked up on things I haven't. The point is, they're getting pummeled through the air (eighth most yards per game) and on the ground (sixth most yards per game).
Equally concerning has been the loss of offensive linemen Mitch Morse in Week 2 and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif in Week 4. While the sample size is small, Kareem Hunt earned a blistering 7.6 yards per carry with a healthy o-line in weeks 1-2. Minus Morse in weeks 3 and 4, Hunt's averaged dropped to 7.2 YPC, buffeted by a game against the league's worst run D (Chargers). When Duvernay-Tardif joined Morse on the sidelines in weeks 5-6, Hunt averaged 3.4 YPC vs. two sub-par run D's based on rushing yards per game and YPC.
Morse and Duvernay-Tardif will be out once again tonight. While offensive lines don't dictate performance, they certainly can influence performance, and Hunt is not an RB1 lock by any stretch.
I would start Carr as a 250/3 QB1--better than we'll see out of the seemingly unstoppable (until last week) Alex Smith. If you followed my advice and sold high on Smith last week, great job. If you also heeded my suggestion to buy low on Carr, this is one of several games he could help you win your week. Michael Crabtree also is a must-start guy, while Amari Cooper continues to be a wait-and-see option. And if you're desperate for a WR3/4 to round out your lineup, take a flyer on Seth Roberts, who's getting just enough attention each game to be a TD threat in a high-scoring output--something I'm anticipating tonight.
On the ground, DeAndre Washington's return last week was Jalen Richard's loss, as the two jockey for backup duties. And Marshawn Lynch is what's been expected for months: an slightly slowed TD-dependent running back who the Raiders are wary of overworking, because they'll need him for the NFL playoffs (http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/08/contrarian-prediction-9-marshawn-lynch.html). With the playoffs now in doubt, it will be interesting to see if Lynch is turned loose to the tune of 20+ touches. The odds are better than 50-50, which is why I'm higher on Lynch than most people this week.
Keep in mind, ESPN is one of many sites that rank Smith better than Carr this week. Hunt is ranked 3rd, while Lynch is 23rd. Michael Crabtree is only four spots better than Tyreek Hill (ridiculous). Seth Roberts is outside the top 60 (again, ridiculous).
The game will not play out as most expect. Those who anticipate this and act on it will win the night.