Before getting into tonight's game, a word on deceptive stats. They're everywhere, especially early in the season, when a soft September schedule or a fluke outburst makes players and teams seem far better or worse than they really are. And it's the "really are" that we care about.
Amari Cooper is the 73rd highest scoring fantasy WR. That doesn't mean he's worse than the 63rd ranked Terrance Williams. Alex Smith is the highest scoring fantasy QB. That doesn't mean he's better than the 5th ranked Aaron Rodgers. To be clear, Cooper is a struggling WR2, and Rodgers is a top-2 QB; that's what they "really are." Have they played that way? No. Will they going forward? I believe "yes." Will Alex Smith regress to somewhere outside the top 8? I believe "yes."
Smart people might disagree, and those who disagree--whatever their fantasy savvy--might turn out to be right. But that disagreement is what I want to focus on.
Yesterday a thoughtful FF4W commenter disagreed with my glowing Jerick McKinnon assessment, offering that the Vikings wouldn't have signed Latavius Murray if they trusted McKinnon to carry the load. A totally fair point. He might eye Minnesota's decision making as a sign of who McKinnon "really is." I might weight his 2014 and 2015 numbers more heavily.
It's also appropriate to look closer at teams' decision making. No franchise in any sport is immune to making mistakes--to miscalculating on players in drafts, free agency, and trades. And in the McKinnon case, some franchises stock up at positions where they're already comfortable. The 22-year-old Gio Bernard was 2013's 13th best fantasy RB. That didn't stop the Bengals the following spring from selecting Jeremy Hill in the second round--the second RB taken in the draft. In 2016, the Titans signed DeMarco Murray for $25.5 million--with $12.5 million guaranteed. That didn't stop them a couple months later from snagging Derrick Henry in the second round--also the second RB taken in the draft.
The more we step back and look at the big picture, the more we can see all the areas requiring deeper probing and analysis. It doesn't make my analysis better than someone else's. But the more angles we examine, the more confident we can feel about our conclusions.
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Tonight could be the most fun TNF game to watch in a long time: two QBs with explosive potential, two competent running games, and scores (pun intended) of big-play receivers. It's the kind of game where 8-10 players could help stake many of us to sizable Week 6 leads.
With Greg Olsen returning in about a month, it's not too late to sell high on Ed Dickson. Maybe one of your opponents has nothing to do tonight. Trading him Dickson gives him a reason to watch. Hey, some people out there make trades simply for that reason.
I'm incredibly wary of Devin Funchess's ballooning value. He's always been a nice NFL prospect. But when ESPN rankers peg him as a WR2, that's a sign his value has exceeded who he "really is."
And I'm as shocked as anyone about LeGarrette Blount's resurgence. He hasn't exceeded 4.3 YPC in a season since 2013. He's currently sitting on 5.8. It's unsustainable and a blaring red flag. If you can sell Blount for RB2 value, do it without hesitation.
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Tyler Eifert is out for the season--in case anyone was still clinging to the false promise of near-elite production. His backup, Tyler Kroft, should now be on the matchup-based streaming radar.
Amari Cooper is the 73rd highest scoring fantasy WR. That doesn't mean he's worse than the 63rd ranked Terrance Williams. Alex Smith is the highest scoring fantasy QB. That doesn't mean he's better than the 5th ranked Aaron Rodgers. To be clear, Cooper is a struggling WR2, and Rodgers is a top-2 QB; that's what they "really are." Have they played that way? No. Will they going forward? I believe "yes." Will Alex Smith regress to somewhere outside the top 8? I believe "yes."
Smart people might disagree, and those who disagree--whatever their fantasy savvy--might turn out to be right. But that disagreement is what I want to focus on.
Yesterday a thoughtful FF4W commenter disagreed with my glowing Jerick McKinnon assessment, offering that the Vikings wouldn't have signed Latavius Murray if they trusted McKinnon to carry the load. A totally fair point. He might eye Minnesota's decision making as a sign of who McKinnon "really is." I might weight his 2014 and 2015 numbers more heavily.
It's also appropriate to look closer at teams' decision making. No franchise in any sport is immune to making mistakes--to miscalculating on players in drafts, free agency, and trades. And in the McKinnon case, some franchises stock up at positions where they're already comfortable. The 22-year-old Gio Bernard was 2013's 13th best fantasy RB. That didn't stop the Bengals the following spring from selecting Jeremy Hill in the second round--the second RB taken in the draft. In 2016, the Titans signed DeMarco Murray for $25.5 million--with $12.5 million guaranteed. That didn't stop them a couple months later from snagging Derrick Henry in the second round--also the second RB taken in the draft.
The more we step back and look at the big picture, the more we can see all the areas requiring deeper probing and analysis. It doesn't make my analysis better than someone else's. But the more angles we examine, the more confident we can feel about our conclusions.
---
Tonight could be the most fun TNF game to watch in a long time: two QBs with explosive potential, two competent running games, and scores (pun intended) of big-play receivers. It's the kind of game where 8-10 players could help stake many of us to sizable Week 6 leads.
With Greg Olsen returning in about a month, it's not too late to sell high on Ed Dickson. Maybe one of your opponents has nothing to do tonight. Trading him Dickson gives him a reason to watch. Hey, some people out there make trades simply for that reason.
I'm incredibly wary of Devin Funchess's ballooning value. He's always been a nice NFL prospect. But when ESPN rankers peg him as a WR2, that's a sign his value has exceeded who he "really is."
And I'm as shocked as anyone about LeGarrette Blount's resurgence. He hasn't exceeded 4.3 YPC in a season since 2013. He's currently sitting on 5.8. It's unsustainable and a blaring red flag. If you can sell Blount for RB2 value, do it without hesitation.
---
Tyler Eifert is out for the season--in case anyone was still clinging to the false promise of near-elite production. His backup, Tyler Kroft, should now be on the matchup-based streaming radar.