My prediction of buckets of TNF points proved wrong, as the Patriots beat the Bucs last night 19-14. Gronk's late scratch certainly didn't help. But there's more to this, as there usually is: If these two teams faced off again next week with the same players on the field (plus Gronk), I'd make the same 65+ point prediction. A player's stats, or a team's points, aren't necessarily an indicator of what was possible or what was even likely.
And that can cause confusion in the fantasy world. It leads to fantasy managers picking up Rashard Higgins after Week 2. It leads to some of us abandoning Eddie Lacy or Thomas Rawls when they're only an injury or "hot hand" away from regaining fantasy relevance.
We can't get hung up in voiding theories about players and teams because of one game. Last night Nick Folk missed three field goals (that's five missed field goals and a missed extra point in the past five days for the veteran). A decent kicking performance would have pushed Tampa Bay into the 20's. The Pats racked up 400 yards, but found the end zone only once. How often does that happen in Tom Brady-land? They moved the ball well enough to post 24-30 points.
So yes, these two teams has enough chances to pick up a lot more points, translating into much healthy fantasy stats across the board. Some of the big stories today are how New England's defense got back on track, while the injury-depleted Bucs contained the defending Super Bowl champions. But that's only a surface-level assessment, leading to surface-level (and faulty) conclusions. The Patriots remain the league's highest-powered offense and continue to own one of the most porous defenses, while Tampa Bay's postseason chances hinge not on Jameis Winston, but on a Doug Martin-led ground game and on their key injured defenders getting healthy.
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Scouring the free agent pool, Latavius Murray remains unrostered in 19% of ESPN leagues. He should be picked up in nearly every league, though what you do with him is more important. I'd be concerned that his value won't get much higher after this weekend. With recent underperformer Jerick McKinnon backing him up, I wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota makes a play for Matt Forte or some other RB who can help carry the load. So to summarize, add Murray, trade Murray, forget Murray.
Several weeks ago I suggested that Andrew Luck might not even play this season. I know nothing about this issue; it was pure speculation. But it was based on the idea that the Colts would not reach the playoffs without him, and quite likely would be out of the playoffs by the time Luck could return. I've also been pushing Jacoby Brissett as a fantastic streaming QB ever since Indy acquired him. There's no reason to think the little-rostered Brissett (available in 87% of ESPN leagues) won't be relevant will into November--and possibly in December. Despite an ungenerous schedule, he remains a must-have in two-QB leagues and a terrific situational starter in one-QB leagues. This is once again one of those weeks.
Hopefully you abandoned Jacquizz Rodgers before 8:30 p.m. Eastern time last night. Somehow Rodgers remains rostered in more than half of all ESPN leagues--even more than Eddie Lacy. At this point, he's a glorified handcuff, and given his low ceiling, he's a wasted bench stash.
Every Arizona receiver needs to be sold high. Some people are pushing J.J. Nelson as a fantastic streaming WR. Others, John Brown. Still others, Jaron Brown. Does anyone really think Carson Palmer can keep all these guys fantasy relevant? No more than two of these four wideouts (Larry Fitzgerald included) have been productive in any week this season. And keep in mind John Brown missed two of those weeks. When all four are healthy--and with the rise of Andre Ellington--you're rolling the dice starting J.J., John, or Jaron, while Fitz should be jettisoned for at least high-WR2 value (which should be easy, given he's the 7th highest scoring fantasy WR).
And that can cause confusion in the fantasy world. It leads to fantasy managers picking up Rashard Higgins after Week 2. It leads to some of us abandoning Eddie Lacy or Thomas Rawls when they're only an injury or "hot hand" away from regaining fantasy relevance.
We can't get hung up in voiding theories about players and teams because of one game. Last night Nick Folk missed three field goals (that's five missed field goals and a missed extra point in the past five days for the veteran). A decent kicking performance would have pushed Tampa Bay into the 20's. The Pats racked up 400 yards, but found the end zone only once. How often does that happen in Tom Brady-land? They moved the ball well enough to post 24-30 points.
So yes, these two teams has enough chances to pick up a lot more points, translating into much healthy fantasy stats across the board. Some of the big stories today are how New England's defense got back on track, while the injury-depleted Bucs contained the defending Super Bowl champions. But that's only a surface-level assessment, leading to surface-level (and faulty) conclusions. The Patriots remain the league's highest-powered offense and continue to own one of the most porous defenses, while Tampa Bay's postseason chances hinge not on Jameis Winston, but on a Doug Martin-led ground game and on their key injured defenders getting healthy.
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Scouring the free agent pool, Latavius Murray remains unrostered in 19% of ESPN leagues. He should be picked up in nearly every league, though what you do with him is more important. I'd be concerned that his value won't get much higher after this weekend. With recent underperformer Jerick McKinnon backing him up, I wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota makes a play for Matt Forte or some other RB who can help carry the load. So to summarize, add Murray, trade Murray, forget Murray.
Several weeks ago I suggested that Andrew Luck might not even play this season. I know nothing about this issue; it was pure speculation. But it was based on the idea that the Colts would not reach the playoffs without him, and quite likely would be out of the playoffs by the time Luck could return. I've also been pushing Jacoby Brissett as a fantastic streaming QB ever since Indy acquired him. There's no reason to think the little-rostered Brissett (available in 87% of ESPN leagues) won't be relevant will into November--and possibly in December. Despite an ungenerous schedule, he remains a must-have in two-QB leagues and a terrific situational starter in one-QB leagues. This is once again one of those weeks.
Hopefully you abandoned Jacquizz Rodgers before 8:30 p.m. Eastern time last night. Somehow Rodgers remains rostered in more than half of all ESPN leagues--even more than Eddie Lacy. At this point, he's a glorified handcuff, and given his low ceiling, he's a wasted bench stash.
Every Arizona receiver needs to be sold high. Some people are pushing J.J. Nelson as a fantastic streaming WR. Others, John Brown. Still others, Jaron Brown. Does anyone really think Carson Palmer can keep all these guys fantasy relevant? No more than two of these four wideouts (Larry Fitzgerald included) have been productive in any week this season. And keep in mind John Brown missed two of those weeks. When all four are healthy--and with the rise of Andre Ellington--you're rolling the dice starting J.J., John, or Jaron, while Fitz should be jettisoned for at least high-WR2 value (which should be easy, given he's the 7th highest scoring fantasy WR).