Tonight's contest realistically could go one of two ways: Either the Patriots will win a close game, or they'll obliterate the injury-depleted Bucs with six TDs. Either way, the two teams will combine to score 65+ points in one of the most exciting (if you like scoring) Thursday Night Football matchups ever.
As many of you know, I've long had a problem with Thursday games. If you want the best players on the field, don't artificially limit their healing time. Tonight is no exception to what we've seen all year, all last year, and so on: Rex Burkhead is out for New England, while Gronk is questionable with a thigh injury (though presumably he's in). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay might be without starting defenders T.J. Ward, Brent Grimes, Lavonte David, and Kwon Alexander. While I'm not saying all these guys would be automatic starts if they'd played three or four days later, they're clearly at a greater disadvantage playing sooner than later.
So once a year I push my double-bye idea, in which each division goes on its bye the same week, and then plays against each other the following Wednesday (for example, Dolphins vs. Bills) and Thursday (Jets vs. Patriots). So they might play on Sunday, October 1, then they'd have a bye the next weekend and would play Wednesday the 11th and Thursday the 12th. Then they'd play the weekend after the next one (Sunday the 22nd). About seven weeks later, they'd have another bye and repeat the process.
As a result, no player would ever have to play on extraordinarily short rest. Those entering concussion protocols on Sunday would have more time to be ready for their next game. And with four 9-10 day rest periods a season (one after each bye and one after each Wednesday/Thursday game), there are more extended opportunities to heal.
A sample schedule is here: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2016/10/how-nfl-could-add-wednesday-night.html I'm not arrogant enough to think this is realistically implementable. But it's better than what players have to go through now.
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So back to tonight's face-off. The Patriots are looking for answers, and they're playing a team that simply can't stop them. Tampa Bay's best hope is to control the clock with a strong run game and to put up 30+ points. The problem is, they'll toss that game plan out the window when the Pats are up 21-7 in the middle of the 2nd quarter. So Jacquizz Rodgers--already a risky play with or without the return of Doug Martin--is an unstartable RB4/5, while Martin is too big a risk in his first game back from a suspension. Martin deservedly is viewed as his team's best hope in the backfield. That said, no one knows how much he'll be utilized, and how quickly he'll shake off the rust.
For the Patriots, Brandin Cooks is a go. Barring a pre-game setback, Gronk is a go. James White is a go. Chris Hogan is a go. And Tom Brady will toss 4+ TDs. I'm not saying anything out of the ordinary here. But I am saying they'll all outperform lofty expectations.
As many of you know, I've long had a problem with Thursday games. If you want the best players on the field, don't artificially limit their healing time. Tonight is no exception to what we've seen all year, all last year, and so on: Rex Burkhead is out for New England, while Gronk is questionable with a thigh injury (though presumably he's in). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay might be without starting defenders T.J. Ward, Brent Grimes, Lavonte David, and Kwon Alexander. While I'm not saying all these guys would be automatic starts if they'd played three or four days later, they're clearly at a greater disadvantage playing sooner than later.
So once a year I push my double-bye idea, in which each division goes on its bye the same week, and then plays against each other the following Wednesday (for example, Dolphins vs. Bills) and Thursday (Jets vs. Patriots). So they might play on Sunday, October 1, then they'd have a bye the next weekend and would play Wednesday the 11th and Thursday the 12th. Then they'd play the weekend after the next one (Sunday the 22nd). About seven weeks later, they'd have another bye and repeat the process.
As a result, no player would ever have to play on extraordinarily short rest. Those entering concussion protocols on Sunday would have more time to be ready for their next game. And with four 9-10 day rest periods a season (one after each bye and one after each Wednesday/Thursday game), there are more extended opportunities to heal.
A sample schedule is here: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2016/10/how-nfl-could-add-wednesday-night.html I'm not arrogant enough to think this is realistically implementable. But it's better than what players have to go through now.
---
So back to tonight's face-off. The Patriots are looking for answers, and they're playing a team that simply can't stop them. Tampa Bay's best hope is to control the clock with a strong run game and to put up 30+ points. The problem is, they'll toss that game plan out the window when the Pats are up 21-7 in the middle of the 2nd quarter. So Jacquizz Rodgers--already a risky play with or without the return of Doug Martin--is an unstartable RB4/5, while Martin is too big a risk in his first game back from a suspension. Martin deservedly is viewed as his team's best hope in the backfield. That said, no one knows how much he'll be utilized, and how quickly he'll shake off the rust.
For the Patriots, Brandin Cooks is a go. Barring a pre-game setback, Gronk is a go. James White is a go. Chris Hogan is a go. And Tom Brady will toss 4+ TDs. I'm not saying anything out of the ordinary here. But I am saying they'll all outperform lofty expectations.