Some quick thoughts on last night's game:
Jamison Crowder was the 25th highest scoring PPR WR last season. Now he's droppable. There's nothing insightful here. It's all very obvious. We could give him a pass on Week 4 because he was dealing with a hamstring injury. But the reality is, Ryan Grant and Josh Doctson are gaining ground, and Washington is facing three top-13 pass defenses in the fantasy playoffs. Rostered in 100% of ESPN leagues, Crowder doesn't merit rostering in 25%.
Rob Kelley left the game in the first quarter with an ankle injury. Samaje Perine was adequate at best. And Chris Thompson couldn't get going. What appeared to be an exciting backfield this preseason now rests almost entirely on the partially used Thompson, who in case it's not obvious, should be sold high immediately.
Josh Norman reportedly will miss some time with a rib injury. A DST1, the Redskins get luck with a bye next week and then a home game vs. the Niners. In other words, this DST shouldn't miss a beat in the near term and should be rostered in more than 11% of ESPN leagues.
On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith continues to shock and amaze me. I told folks all preseason that he was worthless--that a guy at his age with his skills and with no receiver improvements (and backed by a strong defense) wouldn't suddenly become a QB1. Today he's the second highest scoring fantasy QB, right behind Tom Brady. I don't understand it, can't envision it continuing, and yet clearly have no business commenting on it further.
---
Raise your hand if you've ever held onto a player for too long. Gotta admit, I do it every season. I watch one of my guys reach peak value, somehow believe that's the new norm, and then feel that terrible fantasy emotion--regret--when he crashes back to earth.
Effective roster management requires well-timed contrarianism. Sell on the news. Buy on the lull.
For the sake of this discussion, "the news" is anything that artificially props up a player beyond his real value. For example, DeMarco Murray got hurt Week 2, propelling Derrick Henry to sky-high levels. Did anyone think Henry would become the bell-cow, relegating Murray to the sidelines? No, the best-case scenario had Henry and Murray swapping their 1A/1B roles. Yet I read countless questions from FF4W readers asking about acquiring Henry for, literally, a pot of gold (actually, figuratively). That wasn't a time to buy high on Henry. It was a time to sell high--to capitalize on his hype before the hype subsided.
Of course, we don't *know* a player is overvalued. We assess the situation and make an informed decision. We ignore the buzz and focus on simple equations: When he gets healthy, the $25 million Murray will get a fair share of touches. When that happens, Henry will earn, at most, around 18 touches a game and will share goal-line work. He'll top out at around a mid-range RB2, which is still fantastic given he was an RB4 before the weekend. But it didn't match the hype.
I've written a couple times about C.J. Anderson getting knocked out for the year in 2016. I had snagged Devontae Booker a couple weeks earlier. In the span of a few hours, he became that week's top waiver pickup. And I had him. And then his perceived value quickly exceeded his actual value--a rookie RB with a solid-yet-unspectacular skill-set playing in a sub-par offensive. So I packaged him in a trade for Amari Cooper, who despite his poor showing this season was a high-end WR2 last season. And Booker never came close to meeting expectations.
People often make a bigger deal of "the news" than is justified. It's happening with Latavius Murray, who's expected to replace Dalvin Cook as Minnesota's #1 running back. Murray is being touted as one of the most--and in some places, the most--valuable waiver pickup this week. If one of your opponents lost Cook, Chris Carson, and/or Ty Montgomery this past weekend, they're probably itching for a replacement. They've probably already looked to see if anyone has Latavius. And luckily enough, you do.
So trade him. Murray is a widely perceived RB2 who will be lucky to produce RB3 numbers consistently. You're getting more by selling on the news than by keeping a guy you won't want to start in the fantasy playoffs. Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls also fall into this camp--guys who are unlikely to earn enough consistent carries to markedly improve your fantasy team. Even Devin Funchess fits into this category, as "the news" surrounding his breakout Week 4 performance is a bit marred by the fact that his fantasy playoff prospects are dimmer than they appear due to Greg Olsen's eventual return and the fact that his bust-out came at the expense of an unusually ineffective running game--oh, and facing the league's worst pass defense.
As for "buying on the lull," who isn't getting attention out there? Who isn't a "hot waiver pickup" or "sneaky Week 5 bargain." Whose quiet Week 4 results are keeping them under fantasy radars?
Those are the guys I'm targeting. "The lull" is exactly what I'm looking for when eyeballing undervalued players. Ben Roethlisberger's schedule will open up soon, and given his play this season, you can probably get him for a WR4. Same goes for the injured Derek Carr, who will overcome a mixed first month and return to the top 14. Same goes for Joe Mixon, who will take over this backfield regardless of what any expert says. Same goes for the much-maligned Amari Cooper, who's not even a top 60 wideout despite posting back-to-back 70-catch, 1,000-yard, 5-TD seasons.
News helps those who don't have time to research. So "the lull"--the absence of research--forces opponents to rely on stats and hunches, both of which can be misleading. And that's exactly where we want our opponents: ignorant, but thinking they're knowledgeable.
Sell on news that sparks opponents' imagination of "what could be." Buy on the lull that makes opponents sullen and impatient.
Jamison Crowder was the 25th highest scoring PPR WR last season. Now he's droppable. There's nothing insightful here. It's all very obvious. We could give him a pass on Week 4 because he was dealing with a hamstring injury. But the reality is, Ryan Grant and Josh Doctson are gaining ground, and Washington is facing three top-13 pass defenses in the fantasy playoffs. Rostered in 100% of ESPN leagues, Crowder doesn't merit rostering in 25%.
Rob Kelley left the game in the first quarter with an ankle injury. Samaje Perine was adequate at best. And Chris Thompson couldn't get going. What appeared to be an exciting backfield this preseason now rests almost entirely on the partially used Thompson, who in case it's not obvious, should be sold high immediately.
Josh Norman reportedly will miss some time with a rib injury. A DST1, the Redskins get luck with a bye next week and then a home game vs. the Niners. In other words, this DST shouldn't miss a beat in the near term and should be rostered in more than 11% of ESPN leagues.
On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith continues to shock and amaze me. I told folks all preseason that he was worthless--that a guy at his age with his skills and with no receiver improvements (and backed by a strong defense) wouldn't suddenly become a QB1. Today he's the second highest scoring fantasy QB, right behind Tom Brady. I don't understand it, can't envision it continuing, and yet clearly have no business commenting on it further.
---
Raise your hand if you've ever held onto a player for too long. Gotta admit, I do it every season. I watch one of my guys reach peak value, somehow believe that's the new norm, and then feel that terrible fantasy emotion--regret--when he crashes back to earth.
Effective roster management requires well-timed contrarianism. Sell on the news. Buy on the lull.
For the sake of this discussion, "the news" is anything that artificially props up a player beyond his real value. For example, DeMarco Murray got hurt Week 2, propelling Derrick Henry to sky-high levels. Did anyone think Henry would become the bell-cow, relegating Murray to the sidelines? No, the best-case scenario had Henry and Murray swapping their 1A/1B roles. Yet I read countless questions from FF4W readers asking about acquiring Henry for, literally, a pot of gold (actually, figuratively). That wasn't a time to buy high on Henry. It was a time to sell high--to capitalize on his hype before the hype subsided.
Of course, we don't *know* a player is overvalued. We assess the situation and make an informed decision. We ignore the buzz and focus on simple equations: When he gets healthy, the $25 million Murray will get a fair share of touches. When that happens, Henry will earn, at most, around 18 touches a game and will share goal-line work. He'll top out at around a mid-range RB2, which is still fantastic given he was an RB4 before the weekend. But it didn't match the hype.
I've written a couple times about C.J. Anderson getting knocked out for the year in 2016. I had snagged Devontae Booker a couple weeks earlier. In the span of a few hours, he became that week's top waiver pickup. And I had him. And then his perceived value quickly exceeded his actual value--a rookie RB with a solid-yet-unspectacular skill-set playing in a sub-par offensive. So I packaged him in a trade for Amari Cooper, who despite his poor showing this season was a high-end WR2 last season. And Booker never came close to meeting expectations.
People often make a bigger deal of "the news" than is justified. It's happening with Latavius Murray, who's expected to replace Dalvin Cook as Minnesota's #1 running back. Murray is being touted as one of the most--and in some places, the most--valuable waiver pickup this week. If one of your opponents lost Cook, Chris Carson, and/or Ty Montgomery this past weekend, they're probably itching for a replacement. They've probably already looked to see if anyone has Latavius. And luckily enough, you do.
So trade him. Murray is a widely perceived RB2 who will be lucky to produce RB3 numbers consistently. You're getting more by selling on the news than by keeping a guy you won't want to start in the fantasy playoffs. Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls also fall into this camp--guys who are unlikely to earn enough consistent carries to markedly improve your fantasy team. Even Devin Funchess fits into this category, as "the news" surrounding his breakout Week 4 performance is a bit marred by the fact that his fantasy playoff prospects are dimmer than they appear due to Greg Olsen's eventual return and the fact that his bust-out came at the expense of an unusually ineffective running game--oh, and facing the league's worst pass defense.
As for "buying on the lull," who isn't getting attention out there? Who isn't a "hot waiver pickup" or "sneaky Week 5 bargain." Whose quiet Week 4 results are keeping them under fantasy radars?
Those are the guys I'm targeting. "The lull" is exactly what I'm looking for when eyeballing undervalued players. Ben Roethlisberger's schedule will open up soon, and given his play this season, you can probably get him for a WR4. Same goes for the injured Derek Carr, who will overcome a mixed first month and return to the top 14. Same goes for Joe Mixon, who will take over this backfield regardless of what any expert says. Same goes for the much-maligned Amari Cooper, who's not even a top 60 wideout despite posting back-to-back 70-catch, 1,000-yard, 5-TD seasons.
News helps those who don't have time to research. So "the lull"--the absence of research--forces opponents to rely on stats and hunches, both of which can be misleading. And that's exactly where we want our opponents: ignorant, but thinking they're knowledgeable.
Sell on news that sparks opponents' imagination of "what could be." Buy on the lull that makes opponents sullen and impatient.