The Risks/Rewards of Trading for Ezekiel Elliott

If you're 7-0 or 6-1 and in a re-draft league, this is the time to buy low on Ezekiel Elliott, particularly if your opponent is 4-3 or worse. Why? Because you can convince her or him (yes, you possess this persuasive power) that Zeke's October 30 hearing is the end of the line for this 15-month saga. There won't be any more stall tactics. The six-game suspension will be upheld. And your opponent--desperate for wins if they hope to reach the postseason--can't afford to lose their star RB for weeks 9-14.

Be candid with them. Make this a face-to-face conversation, not an e-mail exchange. They need to see you're being sincere.

And you are being sincere. Because often the best trades are the ones where both sides know exactly what's at stake. There's simply a difference of need. And so the mark of a fair trade is where each side gets something they need, while giving up something they don't need as much.

Explain to them that you can afford to lose some regular season games. You can sit Zeke on your bench for six weeks, go 3-3, and still comfortably make the playoffs. And tell them, "But if you can't go 5-1 without Zeke, then here's a chance for both of us to get something out of this situation. You get something in the short term to help you reach the playoffs; I go all-in with Zeke when he returns Week 15."

If s/he says no, so be it. They're taking their chances that Zeke's suspension will be reduced or overturned. Highly unlikely.

The next question is what you'd offer them. An upside-reduced Jordy Nelson could be insulting. And as much as I've been pumping up Nelson Agholor all season, his 24 receptions are the second-lowest among the 24 highest scoring fantasy WRs (Stefon Diggs has 23), and he has by far the fewest targets of any receiver in the top 30. So while I'd love to trade Agholor for Zeke if I could afford to near-term hit, I wouldn't view Agholor as a great "get" for Zeke if I were 3-4 and desperate for wins.

I can't give anyone a firm answer on who to offer. All I can say is, you'll probably need to give up a weekly starter. If you can afford to, and if s/he accepts, you've got a good chance at a huge fantasy playoff upgrade.

Last thought on Zeke: He still comes with risks. You're playing the odds trading for him. You're assuming a decision will be made before Week 9. If that decision is delayed until right before or after Week 10, you could lose him for most or all of the fantasy playoffs. But the odds are better than they've ever been that this issue will be resolved within the next 5-7 days.