I've shared my thoughts about Ezekiel Elliott in about a dozen columns since August, yet he's the focal point of more questions this week than any other player. I get it: This is our nation's biggest "Will he or won't he" dilemma since Season 7, Episode 18 of "The Real Housewives of Orange County." (Full disclosure: I Googled "Will he or won't he," and that's the first thing that came up.) So what do we make of the Southern District of New York granting Zeke another temporary restraining order yesterday? If the NFL wins fight, will it be off to Northern District of Montana for another appeal? When does this end?
Of course, I have no idea. And I can't confidently advise anyone on whether Zeke is a buy-low or sell-high RB. It's a gamble either way/
Here's what I do know . . . and I've been preaching this every time I've mentioned "Zeke" and "suspension" in the same column: The longer this drags out, the worse it is for those rostering him. If you landed him in the third round of your draft, you probably would have been better off taking the loss in weeks 1-6 and then enjoying mid-to-high-end RB1 production the rest of the way. As it stands, if his suspension goes into effect after this weekend--if the NFL finally wins this drawn-out legal battle--then Zeke will miss weeks 8-13.
After that, we can get into a dangerous area for fantasy managers. Realistically, Zeke won't be suspended for the NFL playoffs (if Dallas gets there). So I've long held that a resolution will come during this regular season, and will be implemented during this regular season. That means if a six-game suspension went into effect after Week 8, Zeke would miss the first round of most leagues' fantasy playoffs (Week 14). If after Week 9 or Week 10, those of you relying on the Cowboys' franchise running back will probably find a gaping hole in your playoff lineup.
So if Zeke were on my team, I'd gamble that Zeke will be worthless for part or all of the fantasy playoffs. Here's what I'd do: talk with every league opponent and pitch Zeke as a 50/50 RB1 the rest of the season. I'd gladly trade him for Jerick McKinnon or an injured Stefon Diggs. Again, it's a gamble. Who knows what will happen? But I'd rather get terrific value for Zeke than run the risk of getting zero value for part or all of the fantasy playoffs.
Here are some other things I'm watching as we approach Week 7:
Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder, and Jordan Reed were supposed to lead the Redskins' receiving corps. Instead, Josh Doctson now has a legit shot at to carve out a more consistent role. The highly touted 2016 first rounder is a name to watch in deeper leagues.
With Rob Kelley returning to practice, and with Washington facing Philly's elite run D, this is shaping up to be a week to bench most--if not all--of the Redskins' backfield. As for Chris Thompson--yes, the same Chris Thompson ranked 7th among all RB fantasy scorers--I don't see how he can keep this up. Or can he? I'm stumped.
Speaking of the Eagles, Wendell Smallwood should be back in uniform this weekend. But will it matter? LeGarrette Blount has been re-born the past two weeks. After earning 27 touches his last two contests, he'll be a dangerous start his first game back.
Apparently it's "The Year of the Gruesome Injury" in professional sports, and Robert Turbin is the latest victim (actually, that ignoble honor falls to the NBA's Gordon Hayward--brutal). So for the Colts, Turbin's loss is Marlon Mack's gain. Don't buy into Mack's poor usage this past weekend. He has a great shot of being a split-time back this season. The only problem (and it's a big one) is the Colts' unfavorable schedule. Mack realistically will be an RB3/4 the rest of the way, which means he's a must-roster back in most leagues.
Finally, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry continue to jockey for backfield supremacy in Tennessee. I've been writing since the summer that Murray's vastly overrated as an RB1--and he still is--while Henry is fantasy's top RB handcuff. If Henry's value moves into the RB2 range--and if Murray is still at least splitting backfield touches--then Henry's a sell-high guy. But if you can get Henry for RB3 value or less, he has been and continues to be worth the investment.
Of course, I have no idea. And I can't confidently advise anyone on whether Zeke is a buy-low or sell-high RB. It's a gamble either way/
Here's what I do know . . . and I've been preaching this every time I've mentioned "Zeke" and "suspension" in the same column: The longer this drags out, the worse it is for those rostering him. If you landed him in the third round of your draft, you probably would have been better off taking the loss in weeks 1-6 and then enjoying mid-to-high-end RB1 production the rest of the way. As it stands, if his suspension goes into effect after this weekend--if the NFL finally wins this drawn-out legal battle--then Zeke will miss weeks 8-13.
After that, we can get into a dangerous area for fantasy managers. Realistically, Zeke won't be suspended for the NFL playoffs (if Dallas gets there). So I've long held that a resolution will come during this regular season, and will be implemented during this regular season. That means if a six-game suspension went into effect after Week 8, Zeke would miss the first round of most leagues' fantasy playoffs (Week 14). If after Week 9 or Week 10, those of you relying on the Cowboys' franchise running back will probably find a gaping hole in your playoff lineup.
So if Zeke were on my team, I'd gamble that Zeke will be worthless for part or all of the fantasy playoffs. Here's what I'd do: talk with every league opponent and pitch Zeke as a 50/50 RB1 the rest of the season. I'd gladly trade him for Jerick McKinnon or an injured Stefon Diggs. Again, it's a gamble. Who knows what will happen? But I'd rather get terrific value for Zeke than run the risk of getting zero value for part or all of the fantasy playoffs.
Here are some other things I'm watching as we approach Week 7:
Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder, and Jordan Reed were supposed to lead the Redskins' receiving corps. Instead, Josh Doctson now has a legit shot at to carve out a more consistent role. The highly touted 2016 first rounder is a name to watch in deeper leagues.
With Rob Kelley returning to practice, and with Washington facing Philly's elite run D, this is shaping up to be a week to bench most--if not all--of the Redskins' backfield. As for Chris Thompson--yes, the same Chris Thompson ranked 7th among all RB fantasy scorers--I don't see how he can keep this up. Or can he? I'm stumped.
Speaking of the Eagles, Wendell Smallwood should be back in uniform this weekend. But will it matter? LeGarrette Blount has been re-born the past two weeks. After earning 27 touches his last two contests, he'll be a dangerous start his first game back.
Apparently it's "The Year of the Gruesome Injury" in professional sports, and Robert Turbin is the latest victim (actually, that ignoble honor falls to the NBA's Gordon Hayward--brutal). So for the Colts, Turbin's loss is Marlon Mack's gain. Don't buy into Mack's poor usage this past weekend. He has a great shot of being a split-time back this season. The only problem (and it's a big one) is the Colts' unfavorable schedule. Mack realistically will be an RB3/4 the rest of the way, which means he's a must-roster back in most leagues.
Finally, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry continue to jockey for backfield supremacy in Tennessee. I've been writing since the summer that Murray's vastly overrated as an RB1--and he still is--while Henry is fantasy's top RB handcuff. If Henry's value moves into the RB2 range--and if Murray is still at least splitting backfield touches--then Henry's a sell-high guy. But if you can get Henry for RB3 value or less, he has been and continues to be worth the investment.