As with every Monday morning, there's a lot to cover. Not sure how many of you read through this whole thing every week--or if it's useful. But hopefully it helps frame some of the fantasy storylines to examine more closely in the days ahead.
Vikings – A week after Latavius Murray racked up 123 yards on 19 touches, Jerick McKinnon reclaimed the lead back role with his own impressive performance (largely through the air). If you sold high on Murray last week, great job (I’ve been higher on McKinnon since Dalvin Cook went down, but admittedly thought Murray would lead the backfield yesterday). This could remain a hot-hand committee for the rest of the year.
Browns – Isaiah Crowell picked up his first TD of the season. He also lost his first fumble. This is nothing more than a sell-high moment.
Raiders – If you’re replacing a starter for one week, hold onto the ball. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard didn’t. Both fared well otherwise, but it will be interesting to see whether their turnovers cost them when the nearly re-retired Marshawn Lynch returns.
Bills – After a lukewarm start to the season, LeSean McCoy has strung together two consecutive outstanding games. Signed through his age-31 season in 2019, McCoy is on track for a near-career high in rushing attempts (313) and a career high in total touches (400), all while compiling a career-low 3.8 YPC. Primarily volume—not TD opportunities or efficiency—is propelling him to RB1 production.
Chargers – I hate to take away an impressive run like Melvin Gordon’s 87-yarder. And I won’t. But looking beyond his impressive 9.4 YPC yesterday, here’s what I see: a third-year back who’s barely above 4.0 YPC after failing to reach that middling plateau his first two seasons. Remove that 87-yard run, and you’re looking at a lead back with sub-3.4 YPC in six of eight games. That’s Isaiah Crowell territory, except with a higher powered offense. Yes, he’s been playing hurt. But his inefficiency since entering the league is alarming; I’m knocking him down several spots in my internal dynasty league rankings.
Patriots – 45 of New England’s offensive plays involved running backs. That’s up from 38 last week. In 2016 the Pats averaged only 33 RB looks per game. Maybe yesterday was an outlier. But with Tom Brady collecting only eight TDs in his past five games (and plenty of stalled drives in or near the red zone), it will be interesting to see whether this trend continues.
Colts – Um, Jack Doyle: 12 catches for 121 yards and a score. Indy’s coaching staff must have game-planned this and not had the courtesy of telling any of us. In fairness, he’s been averaging six receptions the past three weeks. But with T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief essentially invisible, what a great guy to sell high this week.
Bengals – Andy Dalton came through, though it wasn’t as dominating as I anticipated. And with that, staring at three consecutive road games—two against arguably the top two pass defenses, Jacksonville and Denver—he’ll be virtually unstartable for the foreseeable future.
Bears -- Jordan Howard is becoming the 1972 version of Steve Carlton: the only bright spot in an otherwise abysmal offense. A lack of TD opportunities aside, his volume makes him a weekly RB2/3, regardless of the opponent.
Saints – Mark Ingram was spectacular, and then he lost two fumbles—his second and third of the season. He also lost two last year. Alvin Kamara took over when it counted late. Ingram is a locked-in RB1. But keep an eye on these two this week.
Falcons – Tevin Coleman took over in this game, in a role that Devonta Freeman normally would have played. Call it situational for now. But Coleman’s 15 touches (vs. 13 for Freeman) needs to be monitored.
Jets – The Jets almost pulled off a sizable upset. This is a team that, if a few things had broken differently, could have been on a six-game win streak. Robby Anderson is the big story here. I’ve remained in denial, despite the fact he’s been a fantasy contributor in five of the past six games.
49ers – I keep warning folks to sell high on Carlos Hyde. Some weeks I look stupid. Others, it makes more sense. Yesterday was another example of the latter: a winless team with a rookie QB forced to air it out because of a terrible defense. In these types of games, Hyde doesn’t have much of a chance to make an impact.
Eagles – Corey Clement earned 10 touches. Wendell Smallwood? Only two. With LeGarrette Blount reverting to plodding mode (and with Philly apparently okay with this three-yards-at-a-time approach), Smallwood is now droppable in nearly every league.
Panthers – By all accounts, this was an ugly win. Yet at 5-3, Carolina has three winnable games and a bye these next four weeks and owns one of the most favorable fantasy playoff schedules around. From a fantasy perspective, the most notable storyline is how much this team needs Greg Olsen back on the field. Available in 58% of ESPN leagues, if you’re hurting at tight end, Olsen should be your top waiver add as soon as you can clear space for a three-week bench stash.
Buccaneers – Doug Martin once again dominated backfield touches, and once again had little to show for it. He’s an RB3 you just hope finds the end zone.
Texans – I thought Seattle would slow down Deshaun Watson. I converted that thought into a public prediction on my podcast. He’s simply unbelievable, and one has to wonder why Houston saw fit to start Tom Savage Week 1, as well as why the Browns, Bears, 49ers, Jaguars, and Jets passed on him in the draft. Safe to say that so far, he’s one of the successful rookie QBs in NFL history.
Seahawks – Where did Paul Richardson’s outburst come from? If this is a sign of things to come, how can anyone predict which of Seattle’s four main receivers will shine? Oh, and how could Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls combine for minus-1 yard on 12 carries? (That’s a rhetorical question.) My J.D. McKissic dart throw prediction looks pretty foolish, except when you consider he outgained Lacy and Rawls combined, one has to wonder if Pete Carroll will give the more versatile McKissic a few more looks next week.
Cowboys – As shared in my weekend podcast, Dak Prescott was headed toward a down game. A bunch of experts insisted he’d be the #1 or #2 Week 8 fantasy QB. When healthy (or at least “healthier”), Washington’s pass D is underrated.
Redskins – Maybe now the Josh Doctson fervor will subside. People tend to like what’s “new” more than what’s sustainable. Doctson remains a very green talent in a crowded receiving corps. This week, the long-forgotten Jamison Crowder finally stepped up. With 5-6 receivers vying for looks every week, there is no constant.
Steelers – Raise your hand if you thought JuJu Smith-Schuster would flop (I just raised my hand). Bad me. Great job to those who believed in him. I played the percentages based on Detroit’s solid (and turnover-friendly) pass defense and Ben Roethlisberger’s notoriously middling-to-awful road numbers the past three years. This is why playing the percentages is no guarantee for success. That said, I was adamant over the weekend that Martavis Bryant was no longer needed on this team. Does anyone see Mike Tomlin welcoming him back now?
Lions – Ameer Abdullah’s usage (14-15 touches per game) was to be expected this preseason. But his inefficiency (3.7 YPC), minimal involvement in the passing game, and continued lack of scoring opportunities have made him unstartable most weeks. He’s a bigger name than he is a fantasy asset.
Vikings – A week after Latavius Murray racked up 123 yards on 19 touches, Jerick McKinnon reclaimed the lead back role with his own impressive performance (largely through the air). If you sold high on Murray last week, great job (I’ve been higher on McKinnon since Dalvin Cook went down, but admittedly thought Murray would lead the backfield yesterday). This could remain a hot-hand committee for the rest of the year.
Browns – Isaiah Crowell picked up his first TD of the season. He also lost his first fumble. This is nothing more than a sell-high moment.
Raiders – If you’re replacing a starter for one week, hold onto the ball. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard didn’t. Both fared well otherwise, but it will be interesting to see whether their turnovers cost them when the nearly re-retired Marshawn Lynch returns.
Bills – After a lukewarm start to the season, LeSean McCoy has strung together two consecutive outstanding games. Signed through his age-31 season in 2019, McCoy is on track for a near-career high in rushing attempts (313) and a career high in total touches (400), all while compiling a career-low 3.8 YPC. Primarily volume—not TD opportunities or efficiency—is propelling him to RB1 production.
Chargers – I hate to take away an impressive run like Melvin Gordon’s 87-yarder. And I won’t. But looking beyond his impressive 9.4 YPC yesterday, here’s what I see: a third-year back who’s barely above 4.0 YPC after failing to reach that middling plateau his first two seasons. Remove that 87-yard run, and you’re looking at a lead back with sub-3.4 YPC in six of eight games. That’s Isaiah Crowell territory, except with a higher powered offense. Yes, he’s been playing hurt. But his inefficiency since entering the league is alarming; I’m knocking him down several spots in my internal dynasty league rankings.
Patriots – 45 of New England’s offensive plays involved running backs. That’s up from 38 last week. In 2016 the Pats averaged only 33 RB looks per game. Maybe yesterday was an outlier. But with Tom Brady collecting only eight TDs in his past five games (and plenty of stalled drives in or near the red zone), it will be interesting to see whether this trend continues.
Colts – Um, Jack Doyle: 12 catches for 121 yards and a score. Indy’s coaching staff must have game-planned this and not had the courtesy of telling any of us. In fairness, he’s been averaging six receptions the past three weeks. But with T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief essentially invisible, what a great guy to sell high this week.
Bengals – Andy Dalton came through, though it wasn’t as dominating as I anticipated. And with that, staring at three consecutive road games—two against arguably the top two pass defenses, Jacksonville and Denver—he’ll be virtually unstartable for the foreseeable future.
Bears -- Jordan Howard is becoming the 1972 version of Steve Carlton: the only bright spot in an otherwise abysmal offense. A lack of TD opportunities aside, his volume makes him a weekly RB2/3, regardless of the opponent.
Saints – Mark Ingram was spectacular, and then he lost two fumbles—his second and third of the season. He also lost two last year. Alvin Kamara took over when it counted late. Ingram is a locked-in RB1. But keep an eye on these two this week.
Falcons – Tevin Coleman took over in this game, in a role that Devonta Freeman normally would have played. Call it situational for now. But Coleman’s 15 touches (vs. 13 for Freeman) needs to be monitored.
Jets – The Jets almost pulled off a sizable upset. This is a team that, if a few things had broken differently, could have been on a six-game win streak. Robby Anderson is the big story here. I’ve remained in denial, despite the fact he’s been a fantasy contributor in five of the past six games.
49ers – I keep warning folks to sell high on Carlos Hyde. Some weeks I look stupid. Others, it makes more sense. Yesterday was another example of the latter: a winless team with a rookie QB forced to air it out because of a terrible defense. In these types of games, Hyde doesn’t have much of a chance to make an impact.
Eagles – Corey Clement earned 10 touches. Wendell Smallwood? Only two. With LeGarrette Blount reverting to plodding mode (and with Philly apparently okay with this three-yards-at-a-time approach), Smallwood is now droppable in nearly every league.
Panthers – By all accounts, this was an ugly win. Yet at 5-3, Carolina has three winnable games and a bye these next four weeks and owns one of the most favorable fantasy playoff schedules around. From a fantasy perspective, the most notable storyline is how much this team needs Greg Olsen back on the field. Available in 58% of ESPN leagues, if you’re hurting at tight end, Olsen should be your top waiver add as soon as you can clear space for a three-week bench stash.
Buccaneers – Doug Martin once again dominated backfield touches, and once again had little to show for it. He’s an RB3 you just hope finds the end zone.
Texans – I thought Seattle would slow down Deshaun Watson. I converted that thought into a public prediction on my podcast. He’s simply unbelievable, and one has to wonder why Houston saw fit to start Tom Savage Week 1, as well as why the Browns, Bears, 49ers, Jaguars, and Jets passed on him in the draft. Safe to say that so far, he’s one of the successful rookie QBs in NFL history.
Seahawks – Where did Paul Richardson’s outburst come from? If this is a sign of things to come, how can anyone predict which of Seattle’s four main receivers will shine? Oh, and how could Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls combine for minus-1 yard on 12 carries? (That’s a rhetorical question.) My J.D. McKissic dart throw prediction looks pretty foolish, except when you consider he outgained Lacy and Rawls combined, one has to wonder if Pete Carroll will give the more versatile McKissic a few more looks next week.
Cowboys – As shared in my weekend podcast, Dak Prescott was headed toward a down game. A bunch of experts insisted he’d be the #1 or #2 Week 8 fantasy QB. When healthy (or at least “healthier”), Washington’s pass D is underrated.
Redskins – Maybe now the Josh Doctson fervor will subside. People tend to like what’s “new” more than what’s sustainable. Doctson remains a very green talent in a crowded receiving corps. This week, the long-forgotten Jamison Crowder finally stepped up. With 5-6 receivers vying for looks every week, there is no constant.
Steelers – Raise your hand if you thought JuJu Smith-Schuster would flop (I just raised my hand). Bad me. Great job to those who believed in him. I played the percentages based on Detroit’s solid (and turnover-friendly) pass defense and Ben Roethlisberger’s notoriously middling-to-awful road numbers the past three years. This is why playing the percentages is no guarantee for success. That said, I was adamant over the weekend that Martavis Bryant was no longer needed on this team. Does anyone see Mike Tomlin welcoming him back now?
Lions – Ameer Abdullah’s usage (14-15 touches per game) was to be expected this preseason. But his inefficiency (3.7 YPC), minimal involvement in the passing game, and continued lack of scoring opportunities have made him unstartable most weeks. He’s a bigger name than he is a fantasy asset.