How’d everyone do? That bad/great? (I’m covering all sides.) As I do every Monday morning, let’s look at each Sunday team’s most notable fantasy storyline:
Dolphins – Jay Ajayi partially proved me wrong with an impressive 150 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. It was his best game of the season. But his very limited passing game appeal and far-and-few TD opportunities cap his upside. Even yesterday’s outburst made him only Week 6’s 17th highest scoring RB heading into Monday Night Football. That’s not what people invested in when most drafted him too early in the first or second round. He’s also on pace for 300+ carries this year after nearly netting that pace last season. He remains a sell-high RB if you can convince someone he’s a high-end RB2.
Falcons – A terrible home loss for a team that now finds itself 3-2 with the Patriots, Panthers, Cowboys, and Seahawks looming in four of the next five weeks. The most notable fantasy storyline is Austin Hooper leading Atlanta in targets (nine). I picked him for my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week, and he came through. Hooper now has 16 targets in the last two contests after earning only six looks in the first three.
Browns – Cleveland had no virtually no shot yesterday, but if limiting Deshaun Watson to “only” three TDs marks success, then mission accomplished for the 0-6 Browns. Most notably, QB Kevin Hogan was awful. But I suppose he remains Cleveland’s best QB—at least until the next NFL draft.
Texans –Will Fuller V now has one TD for every “Will Fuller” in his family. That’s five TDs on six receptions. I was huge on the second-year wideout this summer, writing on this blog, “Fuller is one of fantasy's most underrated WRs: the 65th ranked WR among the 39 experts and with a WR-ADP of 70. Insane. I repeat: i-n-s-a-n-e. No one has all the answers in fantasy football, but when not one expert ranks Fuller better than 51st and most place him in the 60s, there's a prediction gap to be filled. Fuller will be a top 50 WR and is likely to crack the top 40. I will be drafting him late and loving it.” (http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/07/32-teams-in-32-days-day-19-houston.html) Yet I couldn’t have ever predicted this level of dominance. If his targets can tick upward to the 6-8 range, he’ll be a locked-in WR2+. But be mindful earning 2-3 targets a game is not a recipe for sustained WR1 production.
Patriots – New England wins another nail-biter that any other year should have been a convincing win. Dion Lewis’s rising usage (2-5-5-8-13 touches) is a boon for those who grabbed him off the scrap heap, and means trouble for those leaning on Mike Gillislee or James White. With no sense of who will lead this backfield from week to week, all three become incredibly risky starts.
Jets – What could have been. The near-upset was almost earned—and certainly might have been lost—at the hands of Austin Seferian-Jenkins (though that late turnover might have been the result of a bad call). For fantasy purposes, the reclamation project caught eight of 11 targets and is conceivably a TE1 for now.
Packers – Aaron Rodgers. Devastating. The 4-2 Packers’ playoff hunt is almost certainly shot unless they sign Colin Kaepernick or trade for a Jacoby Brissett-like talent. Obviously, every fantasy receiver loses significant value. It’s also worth noting the buzz surrounding Aaron Jones was, as expected, overblown. Much credit to Minnesota’s D. At the same time, the rookie Jones was a clear sell-high RB all week, and now he’s more of a wait-and-see RB3/4.
Vikings – Jerick McKinnon started slowly and then lost a fumble. But the coaching staff believed in him enough to look past the mistake and feed him at the 3-yard-line, when he found pay dirt. He would score a second time while racking up 99 yards on 21 touches. As expected, Latavius Murray was a plodding afterthought.
49ers – The C.J. Beathard Era has begun. Brian Hoyer hasn’t been entirely bad; he’s just been Brian Hoyer-like. Still, the Niners had seen enough, and Beathard fared quite well in his NFL debut. Another notable nugget: Carlos Hyde out-touched Matt Breida 20-8. Surprising from my perspective. Breida actually ran much better, but Hyde scored twice on the ground as part of a 13-carry, 28-yard rushing line (2.2 YPC for those keeping track). Sell Hyde for RB2 value if you can. Immediately. Like, don’t even read the Redskins paragraph until you’ve made offers to seven different opponents.
Redskins – I received a lot of sit/start questions yesterday regarding what to do with Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson. When folks were debating which two RBs to start, I frequently urged a hedge: starting both Washington RBs with the understanding that one or both should do great. Sure enough, Thompson dominated, while Perine snuck into the end zone to salvage an otherwise uninspiring day.
Lions – 90 total points. Five DST touchdowns. QB ratings of 62 and 78. And a near-comeback from 35 points down midway through the 3rd quarter. The Detroit-New Orleans game was one of the stranger ones we’ll see in a while. The most notable fantasy storyline is the TD-deprived Ameer Abdullah. This remains a pass-first team. Despite Abdullah’s bell-cow role (he’s on pace for a healthy 240 carries), his lack of scoring opportunities and limited passing-game role will continue to frustrate fantasy managers.
Saints – Adrian Peterson is shipped to Arizona, presumably pushing 6-8 more touches onto Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Of course, that’s an oversimplification. But clearly Ingram and Kamara form one of the league’s top 1-2 punches. Ingram has always been one step away from elite-level production, continually stymied by bizarre under-usage or an unfortunate injury. In a league lacking many dependable backfield stars, Ingram is comfortably an RB1 going forward, while Kamara is an RB2/3 waiting his turn.
Bears – Break up the Bears! Seriously, though, a little poor execution and bad luck in weeks 1 and 4 are the difference between a 2-4 and a 4-2 team. And here I was, a few minutes before the opening kickoff, joking about the sad state of affairs in Chicago’s receiver corps (https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/919606349813682176). For fantasy purposes, by my count, Jordan Howard took part in over half of Chicago’s offensive plays, including 36 carries for 167 yards. He’s back on the weekly RB1 radar.
Ravens – I thought Joe Flacco would be respectable. Instead, in a home game against a beatable D, he was one of the worst NFL QBs who took the field yesterday, and that includes at least a couple of backups thrust into action. I’ve long promoted the narrative that Flacco’s one of the league’s most overrated QBs—that for years Baltimore’s Super Bowl title has protected him from deserved scrutiny. Whether he’s still playing hurt, or whether it’s the o-line’s fault, or whether his receivers are better on paper than on the field, Flacco hit rock-bottom on Sunday.
Buccaneers – Jameis Winston was knocked out early with a shoulder injury. Game over? Not at all. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick—surely playing with a chip on his shoulder in the belief he deserved to land a starting job this offseason—did what he does best. I read one notable expert analysis last night claiming all of Tampa Bay’s receivers will take big hits if Winston misses time. Nonsense. Although his latest health reports are promising, if Winston remains sidelined, Fitzpatrick should be added in all two-QB leagues and could help one-QB leaguers desperate for streaming top 14 production.
Cardinals – You gotta hand it to Adrian Peterson: he’s not done yet. 26 carries for 134 yards and two scores. Someone asked me yesterday morning about Andre Ellington, and I suggested starting Ellington over Aaron Jones, but to remain skeptical about Ellington’s near-term prospects. The fact is, the acquisition of AP was a boom-bust move. Yesterday was the boom. We’ll know in 2-3 weeks whether the veteran’s health and abilities can hold up.
Rams – Sammy Watkins: one catch for 11 yards. As if it weren’t obvious last week, whether or not the offense isn’t exactly phasing him out, he’s clearly not a valued commodity, and Jared Goff isn’t (yet?) a great enough QB to sustain Watkins as a weekly threat (his bad throw on a deep ball to Watkins, for example). Watkins is worth rostering in deeper leagues “just in case.” But for now he’s a weekly dart throw.
Jaguars – Jacksonville has as good a shot as any 3-3 team of making the playoffs. It will not happen because of Blake Bortles or Marqise Lee or Allen Hurns. It will happen because of a healthy Leonard Fournette and a stout D. And if the rookie back helps lead the Jags to the playoffs, he should be seriously considered for league MVP—an award that has gone to only one non-QB in the past 10 years.
Steelers – After Big Ben literally threw the game away in Week 5, employed an approach that worked in their two previous wins: run Le’Veon Bell like their season depended on it. And it worked. Bell was great, but not quite elite, through five weeks. With a top 10 RB performance against Cincinnati next week, he could reclaim the top fantasy RB scoring spot.
Chiefs – With several guys playing out of their minds, a dud was bound to happen. Kansas City is in the midst of a relatively tough part of their schedule. There will be more bumps. Longer term, Alex Smith will regress to low-end QB1 at best, while Kareem Hunt remains the real deal.
Chargers – Remember when people were dropping Hunter Henry left and right after two zero-point efforts in his first three games this season? This site urged readers to grab him immediately. He’s been great-to-stellar in every game since. Yet another reason why early-season struggles are sometimes misleading.
Raiders – The Chargers have a good pass D, so Derek Carr’s letdown is not a sign of things to come. He remains a nice buy-low QB.
Giants – Break up the injury-depleted Giants! They lose their top four wideouts and “starting” RB, and somehow don’t miss a beat on the road against one of the league’s tougher D’s. If you listened to my weekend bargains/busts podcast (https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-6-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts), you heard me promote the heck out of Evan Engram and warn against the more highly touted Roger Lewis. It all played out as expected (but I never expected the Giants to win).
Broncos – An ugly Denver loss, made uglier by Emmanuel Sanders’ potentially serious injury. Assuming he misses time, Bennie Fowler will become one of the league’s lowest-ceiling #2 wideouts, Jordan Taylor could become a desperation streamer, and the Broncos’ TE’s won’t benefit in the slightest.
Dolphins – Jay Ajayi partially proved me wrong with an impressive 150 yards, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. It was his best game of the season. But his very limited passing game appeal and far-and-few TD opportunities cap his upside. Even yesterday’s outburst made him only Week 6’s 17th highest scoring RB heading into Monday Night Football. That’s not what people invested in when most drafted him too early in the first or second round. He’s also on pace for 300+ carries this year after nearly netting that pace last season. He remains a sell-high RB if you can convince someone he’s a high-end RB2.
Falcons – A terrible home loss for a team that now finds itself 3-2 with the Patriots, Panthers, Cowboys, and Seahawks looming in four of the next five weeks. The most notable fantasy storyline is Austin Hooper leading Atlanta in targets (nine). I picked him for my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week, and he came through. Hooper now has 16 targets in the last two contests after earning only six looks in the first three.
Browns – Cleveland had no virtually no shot yesterday, but if limiting Deshaun Watson to “only” three TDs marks success, then mission accomplished for the 0-6 Browns. Most notably, QB Kevin Hogan was awful. But I suppose he remains Cleveland’s best QB—at least until the next NFL draft.
Texans –Will Fuller V now has one TD for every “Will Fuller” in his family. That’s five TDs on six receptions. I was huge on the second-year wideout this summer, writing on this blog, “Fuller is one of fantasy's most underrated WRs: the 65th ranked WR among the 39 experts and with a WR-ADP of 70. Insane. I repeat: i-n-s-a-n-e. No one has all the answers in fantasy football, but when not one expert ranks Fuller better than 51st and most place him in the 60s, there's a prediction gap to be filled. Fuller will be a top 50 WR and is likely to crack the top 40. I will be drafting him late and loving it.” (http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2017/07/32-teams-in-32-days-day-19-houston.html) Yet I couldn’t have ever predicted this level of dominance. If his targets can tick upward to the 6-8 range, he’ll be a locked-in WR2+. But be mindful earning 2-3 targets a game is not a recipe for sustained WR1 production.
Patriots – New England wins another nail-biter that any other year should have been a convincing win. Dion Lewis’s rising usage (2-5-5-8-13 touches) is a boon for those who grabbed him off the scrap heap, and means trouble for those leaning on Mike Gillislee or James White. With no sense of who will lead this backfield from week to week, all three become incredibly risky starts.
Jets – What could have been. The near-upset was almost earned—and certainly might have been lost—at the hands of Austin Seferian-Jenkins (though that late turnover might have been the result of a bad call). For fantasy purposes, the reclamation project caught eight of 11 targets and is conceivably a TE1 for now.
Packers – Aaron Rodgers. Devastating. The 4-2 Packers’ playoff hunt is almost certainly shot unless they sign Colin Kaepernick or trade for a Jacoby Brissett-like talent. Obviously, every fantasy receiver loses significant value. It’s also worth noting the buzz surrounding Aaron Jones was, as expected, overblown. Much credit to Minnesota’s D. At the same time, the rookie Jones was a clear sell-high RB all week, and now he’s more of a wait-and-see RB3/4.
Vikings – Jerick McKinnon started slowly and then lost a fumble. But the coaching staff believed in him enough to look past the mistake and feed him at the 3-yard-line, when he found pay dirt. He would score a second time while racking up 99 yards on 21 touches. As expected, Latavius Murray was a plodding afterthought.
49ers – The C.J. Beathard Era has begun. Brian Hoyer hasn’t been entirely bad; he’s just been Brian Hoyer-like. Still, the Niners had seen enough, and Beathard fared quite well in his NFL debut. Another notable nugget: Carlos Hyde out-touched Matt Breida 20-8. Surprising from my perspective. Breida actually ran much better, but Hyde scored twice on the ground as part of a 13-carry, 28-yard rushing line (2.2 YPC for those keeping track). Sell Hyde for RB2 value if you can. Immediately. Like, don’t even read the Redskins paragraph until you’ve made offers to seven different opponents.
Redskins – I received a lot of sit/start questions yesterday regarding what to do with Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson. When folks were debating which two RBs to start, I frequently urged a hedge: starting both Washington RBs with the understanding that one or both should do great. Sure enough, Thompson dominated, while Perine snuck into the end zone to salvage an otherwise uninspiring day.
Lions – 90 total points. Five DST touchdowns. QB ratings of 62 and 78. And a near-comeback from 35 points down midway through the 3rd quarter. The Detroit-New Orleans game was one of the stranger ones we’ll see in a while. The most notable fantasy storyline is the TD-deprived Ameer Abdullah. This remains a pass-first team. Despite Abdullah’s bell-cow role (he’s on pace for a healthy 240 carries), his lack of scoring opportunities and limited passing-game role will continue to frustrate fantasy managers.
Saints – Adrian Peterson is shipped to Arizona, presumably pushing 6-8 more touches onto Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Of course, that’s an oversimplification. But clearly Ingram and Kamara form one of the league’s top 1-2 punches. Ingram has always been one step away from elite-level production, continually stymied by bizarre under-usage or an unfortunate injury. In a league lacking many dependable backfield stars, Ingram is comfortably an RB1 going forward, while Kamara is an RB2/3 waiting his turn.
Bears – Break up the Bears! Seriously, though, a little poor execution and bad luck in weeks 1 and 4 are the difference between a 2-4 and a 4-2 team. And here I was, a few minutes before the opening kickoff, joking about the sad state of affairs in Chicago’s receiver corps (https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/919606349813682176). For fantasy purposes, by my count, Jordan Howard took part in over half of Chicago’s offensive plays, including 36 carries for 167 yards. He’s back on the weekly RB1 radar.
Ravens – I thought Joe Flacco would be respectable. Instead, in a home game against a beatable D, he was one of the worst NFL QBs who took the field yesterday, and that includes at least a couple of backups thrust into action. I’ve long promoted the narrative that Flacco’s one of the league’s most overrated QBs—that for years Baltimore’s Super Bowl title has protected him from deserved scrutiny. Whether he’s still playing hurt, or whether it’s the o-line’s fault, or whether his receivers are better on paper than on the field, Flacco hit rock-bottom on Sunday.
Buccaneers – Jameis Winston was knocked out early with a shoulder injury. Game over? Not at all. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick—surely playing with a chip on his shoulder in the belief he deserved to land a starting job this offseason—did what he does best. I read one notable expert analysis last night claiming all of Tampa Bay’s receivers will take big hits if Winston misses time. Nonsense. Although his latest health reports are promising, if Winston remains sidelined, Fitzpatrick should be added in all two-QB leagues and could help one-QB leaguers desperate for streaming top 14 production.
Cardinals – You gotta hand it to Adrian Peterson: he’s not done yet. 26 carries for 134 yards and two scores. Someone asked me yesterday morning about Andre Ellington, and I suggested starting Ellington over Aaron Jones, but to remain skeptical about Ellington’s near-term prospects. The fact is, the acquisition of AP was a boom-bust move. Yesterday was the boom. We’ll know in 2-3 weeks whether the veteran’s health and abilities can hold up.
Rams – Sammy Watkins: one catch for 11 yards. As if it weren’t obvious last week, whether or not the offense isn’t exactly phasing him out, he’s clearly not a valued commodity, and Jared Goff isn’t (yet?) a great enough QB to sustain Watkins as a weekly threat (his bad throw on a deep ball to Watkins, for example). Watkins is worth rostering in deeper leagues “just in case.” But for now he’s a weekly dart throw.
Jaguars – Jacksonville has as good a shot as any 3-3 team of making the playoffs. It will not happen because of Blake Bortles or Marqise Lee or Allen Hurns. It will happen because of a healthy Leonard Fournette and a stout D. And if the rookie back helps lead the Jags to the playoffs, he should be seriously considered for league MVP—an award that has gone to only one non-QB in the past 10 years.
Steelers – After Big Ben literally threw the game away in Week 5, employed an approach that worked in their two previous wins: run Le’Veon Bell like their season depended on it. And it worked. Bell was great, but not quite elite, through five weeks. With a top 10 RB performance against Cincinnati next week, he could reclaim the top fantasy RB scoring spot.
Chiefs – With several guys playing out of their minds, a dud was bound to happen. Kansas City is in the midst of a relatively tough part of their schedule. There will be more bumps. Longer term, Alex Smith will regress to low-end QB1 at best, while Kareem Hunt remains the real deal.
Chargers – Remember when people were dropping Hunter Henry left and right after two zero-point efforts in his first three games this season? This site urged readers to grab him immediately. He’s been great-to-stellar in every game since. Yet another reason why early-season struggles are sometimes misleading.
Raiders – The Chargers have a good pass D, so Derek Carr’s letdown is not a sign of things to come. He remains a nice buy-low QB.
Giants – Break up the injury-depleted Giants! They lose their top four wideouts and “starting” RB, and somehow don’t miss a beat on the road against one of the league’s tougher D’s. If you listened to my weekend bargains/busts podcast (https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-6-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts), you heard me promote the heck out of Evan Engram and warn against the more highly touted Roger Lewis. It all played out as expected (but I never expected the Giants to win).
Broncos – An ugly Denver loss, made uglier by Emmanuel Sanders’ potentially serious injury. Assuming he misses time, Bennie Fowler will become one of the league’s lowest-ceiling #2 wideouts, Jordan Taylor could become a desperation streamer, and the Broncos’ TE’s won’t benefit in the slightest.