Fantasy giveth, and Fantasy taketh away. And because 22 guys always have to be on the field, fantasy giveth back again.
I haven't looked at stats, but this season seems worse than others. Major talents are getting knocked out for the year every week. Yet this is how fantasy works: a guy gets hurt, and another takes his place.
So as I do every Monday morning, let's try to make sense of Sunday's games, highlighting each team's most notable fantasy impact:
Titans – DeMarco Murray dominated the backfield touches. After sharply outperforming Murray in YPC to start the season, Derrick Henry has fared much worse since Week 3 and is now more “handcuff” than a “1B” to Murray’s lead-back status. Of course, this could change on a dime, and it’s as good a time as any to sell high on Murray.
Dolphins – Jay Cutler threw a TD pass—his third of the season. He remains one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL, and regrettably for the team, the league, and fantasy circles, this year we probably won’t get to see whether Matt Moore can do better.
Bills – Charles Clay was carted off Sunday, which is never a good sign. Backup Nick O’Leary looked terrific in relief. With Buffalo struggling to make much happen through the air, O’Leary could be a nice streaming option in deep leagues for as long as Clay’s sidelined.
Bengals – Joe Mixon earned most of the backfield touches and earned a TD carry near the goal line. He’s further entrenched as an RB2/3 with significant upside if he can reach 18+ touches consistently.
Jets – Bilal Powell gets knocked out, and backup Elijah McGuire nets seven yards on eight carries (along with 10 receiving yards). Some of that has to do with the Browns’ run D. But even if Powell misses time, McGuire will be better trade bait than spot starter.
Browns – David Njoku was the bargain TE I pushed in yesterday’s podcast. For most of the game he led Cleveland in receiving, and he also scored, further solidifying his standing as the best thing the team has going for it not named Duke Johnson (and yes, that includes the overrated Corey Coleman).
Panthers – Cam Newton proved me wrong, in large part due to TE Ed Dickson’s 175 yards. All but one of Dickson’s receptions came with 10+ yards remaining for a first down, and one came on a third down. His value will plummet as Greg Olsen closes in on a return. But for now, he has to be on the streaming radar.
Lions – A bad loss, and things don’t get easier for Detroit these next three weeks (Saints, Steelers, Packers). The most notable fantasy angle is Golden Tate’s ongoing retreat from clear-cut #1 receiver status. He hasn’t amassed more than 58 receiving yards since Week 1. He faced a lull early last season, too, before a huge rest-of-year rebound. So don’t count him out. But there’s more reason to be concerned this year.
49ers – You know what I’m about to write: All the fantasy fanfare surrounding Carlos Hyde is unwarranted. I don’t say that maliciously. But I warn readers every preseason. He is the quintessential sell-high RB, unable to stay healthy and unable to thrive in a sub-par offense. Yesterday a hip injury forced him out after doing little-to-nothing, giving way to backup Matt Breida, who thrived. Those rostering Hyde have to hope there’s nothing to it. But the reality is, this is a time-share waiting to happen.
Colts – Marlon Mack dominated on only 10 touches: 93 yards and a TD. While Frank Gore fared mildly well, as most of you know, I’ve been warning about the veteran for months, including this past week: he’s not playing like a bell-cow and won’t keep the job. Yesterday, Mack took a big step toward overtaking Gore at some point this season.
Cardinals – Two things: (1) I got some push-back in my warning over the weekend about all of Arizona’s receivers being sell-high guys. All good. Keep pushing me. But let’s call it what it is: Carson Palmer mustered only one TD on 44 throws, most of which came with Arizona down more than two scores. This isn’t the Palmer of two years ago, and it’s not even the Palmer of last year. Leaning on one of four active receivers on a mediocre passing team is asking for trouble. (2) A shout-out to those who’ve responded to my 20-or-so public pleas (this page, Twitter, podcast) to pick up and start Andre Ellington. He was a Week 5 RB1 in PPR and is an example of how to anticipate fantasy success, rather than merely react to it.
Eagles – Nelson Agholor now has three solid fantasy performances in five weeks. He was one of my huge WR bargains in this past weekend’s podcast, and delivered WR1 production. He’s one of many crazily under-rostered receivers (available in 80% of ESPN leagues).
Chargers – This is not meant to highlight every correct prediction made, but this week I hit on a lot of guys. Melvin Gordon was undervalued in most Week 5 rankings and in DFS. He was one of my prime bargain targets heading into the weekend (on this page and in my 4:44 podcast), and he went on to score the most RB points of the week. One sign a breakout was coming? The near-elite back was given only 11 touches in a Week 4 loss. Something had to change.
Giants – I’ve never witnessed a receiving corps obliterated in a single game. Until yesterday. Odell Beckham, Jr. and Brandon Marshall might be out for the year. Oh, and Sterling Shepard and #4 wideout Dwayne Harris were knocked out. Oh, and so was RB Orleans Darkwa. And Eli Manning suffered a neck injury. The only good news is that Eli should be fine. But the Week 6 Giants will look a lot different than the pre-Week 5 Giants, and if OBJ and Marshall are indeed done, Eli will struggle to post top 18 QB numbers the rest of the season.
Jaguars – Leonard Fournette. Unless he gets hurt, there’s no other Jag worth mentioning all year.
Steelers – “Maybe I don’t have it anymore.” That was Ben Roethlisberger’s reaction to his five-interception Sunday, which included two pick-6’s. To be fair, Jacksonville’s D is for real. To be unfair, Big Ben is barely on the QB2 radar next week in Kansas City and realistically might not be a QB1 more than a couple more times all season.
Ravens – I called it quits on Mike Wallace a two weeks ago. Mea culpa. After starting the season with three catches and 21 yards—in three games combined—he’s broken through in weeks 4 and 5 and is a terrific sell-high receiver if you can net WR3 value.
Raiders – Responding to a question on this page yesterday morning, I recommended Marshawn Lynch over Latavius Murray in Week 5, making a comment somewhere along the lines of “This is the one time I’ll recommend starting Lynch over an RB starter.” He came through with 53 yards and a touchdown. But beyond the stats, the warning signs are everywhere: inefficient running and an ascending Jalen Richard. Sell high on Lynch (RB2 value if possible) before he’s hurt or in a time-share.
Seahawks – What’s all the fuss about Seattle’s backfield? Someone asked me yesterday whether to start Eddie Lacy or Thomas Rawls. I equated it to a debate over whether to start Jeff Hornacek or Toni Kukoc in fantasy basketball (circa 1990s). It’s really a false choice these days. Yes, a road game against the Rams creates more challenges than the average matchup. But Seattle’s offensive line problems and the “many mouths to feed” Seahawks offense makes this a sit-back-and-wait backfield.
Rams – Todd Gurley was rendered irrelevant against Seattle’s tough D. As I warned last week, next up are Jacksonville and Arizona, then the Giants, Houston, and Minnesota. Gurley could continue to shock me. But I’ve been anticipating a return to TD-dependent RB2 production, and this rough stretch will prove me right or wrong.
Packers – Someone asked me last night what they should do with Ty Montgomery. Good question. I’ve been consistent about this since the summer: Montgomery is a part-time back who was thrust into more of a full-time role, averaging 20 touches per game through the first three weeks. Aaron Jones looked incredible Sunday. There’s no conceivable way Montgomery will earn more than 10-12 touches a game when he returns, regardless of Jones’s status. Hopefully you can get RB2 value for Montgomery, convincing an opponent that he’ll continue to be a major backfield threat, and that Jones’s Week 5 effort was a fluke (though it probably wasn’t).
Cowboys – It isn’t always pretty, but Dez Bryant is now posting WR2 numbers on the season and is one or two good games away from cracking the WR1 circle. He was one of my favorite undervalued top 25 receivers entering the season. A Zeke Elliott suspension will make him even more valuable.
Chiefs – Alex Smith was fantastic in a tough road matchup. I’m continually amazed at how wrong I was—and still am—about this formerly perennial sub-middling fantasy talent.
Texans – DeShaun Watson struggled for much of the game, yet still gave fantasy managers a ton to cheer about. That’s the mark of a valuable fantasy commodity. Oh, and Will Fuller is for real. All it took was a competent QB to convert Houston into a team that could support 3+ fantasy contributors per week.
I haven't looked at stats, but this season seems worse than others. Major talents are getting knocked out for the year every week. Yet this is how fantasy works: a guy gets hurt, and another takes his place.
So as I do every Monday morning, let's try to make sense of Sunday's games, highlighting each team's most notable fantasy impact:
Titans – DeMarco Murray dominated the backfield touches. After sharply outperforming Murray in YPC to start the season, Derrick Henry has fared much worse since Week 3 and is now more “handcuff” than a “1B” to Murray’s lead-back status. Of course, this could change on a dime, and it’s as good a time as any to sell high on Murray.
Dolphins – Jay Cutler threw a TD pass—his third of the season. He remains one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL, and regrettably for the team, the league, and fantasy circles, this year we probably won’t get to see whether Matt Moore can do better.
Bills – Charles Clay was carted off Sunday, which is never a good sign. Backup Nick O’Leary looked terrific in relief. With Buffalo struggling to make much happen through the air, O’Leary could be a nice streaming option in deep leagues for as long as Clay’s sidelined.
Bengals – Joe Mixon earned most of the backfield touches and earned a TD carry near the goal line. He’s further entrenched as an RB2/3 with significant upside if he can reach 18+ touches consistently.
Jets – Bilal Powell gets knocked out, and backup Elijah McGuire nets seven yards on eight carries (along with 10 receiving yards). Some of that has to do with the Browns’ run D. But even if Powell misses time, McGuire will be better trade bait than spot starter.
Browns – David Njoku was the bargain TE I pushed in yesterday’s podcast. For most of the game he led Cleveland in receiving, and he also scored, further solidifying his standing as the best thing the team has going for it not named Duke Johnson (and yes, that includes the overrated Corey Coleman).
Panthers – Cam Newton proved me wrong, in large part due to TE Ed Dickson’s 175 yards. All but one of Dickson’s receptions came with 10+ yards remaining for a first down, and one came on a third down. His value will plummet as Greg Olsen closes in on a return. But for now, he has to be on the streaming radar.
Lions – A bad loss, and things don’t get easier for Detroit these next three weeks (Saints, Steelers, Packers). The most notable fantasy angle is Golden Tate’s ongoing retreat from clear-cut #1 receiver status. He hasn’t amassed more than 58 receiving yards since Week 1. He faced a lull early last season, too, before a huge rest-of-year rebound. So don’t count him out. But there’s more reason to be concerned this year.
49ers – You know what I’m about to write: All the fantasy fanfare surrounding Carlos Hyde is unwarranted. I don’t say that maliciously. But I warn readers every preseason. He is the quintessential sell-high RB, unable to stay healthy and unable to thrive in a sub-par offense. Yesterday a hip injury forced him out after doing little-to-nothing, giving way to backup Matt Breida, who thrived. Those rostering Hyde have to hope there’s nothing to it. But the reality is, this is a time-share waiting to happen.
Colts – Marlon Mack dominated on only 10 touches: 93 yards and a TD. While Frank Gore fared mildly well, as most of you know, I’ve been warning about the veteran for months, including this past week: he’s not playing like a bell-cow and won’t keep the job. Yesterday, Mack took a big step toward overtaking Gore at some point this season.
Cardinals – Two things: (1) I got some push-back in my warning over the weekend about all of Arizona’s receivers being sell-high guys. All good. Keep pushing me. But let’s call it what it is: Carson Palmer mustered only one TD on 44 throws, most of which came with Arizona down more than two scores. This isn’t the Palmer of two years ago, and it’s not even the Palmer of last year. Leaning on one of four active receivers on a mediocre passing team is asking for trouble. (2) A shout-out to those who’ve responded to my 20-or-so public pleas (this page, Twitter, podcast) to pick up and start Andre Ellington. He was a Week 5 RB1 in PPR and is an example of how to anticipate fantasy success, rather than merely react to it.
Eagles – Nelson Agholor now has three solid fantasy performances in five weeks. He was one of my huge WR bargains in this past weekend’s podcast, and delivered WR1 production. He’s one of many crazily under-rostered receivers (available in 80% of ESPN leagues).
Chargers – This is not meant to highlight every correct prediction made, but this week I hit on a lot of guys. Melvin Gordon was undervalued in most Week 5 rankings and in DFS. He was one of my prime bargain targets heading into the weekend (on this page and in my 4:44 podcast), and he went on to score the most RB points of the week. One sign a breakout was coming? The near-elite back was given only 11 touches in a Week 4 loss. Something had to change.
Giants – I’ve never witnessed a receiving corps obliterated in a single game. Until yesterday. Odell Beckham, Jr. and Brandon Marshall might be out for the year. Oh, and Sterling Shepard and #4 wideout Dwayne Harris were knocked out. Oh, and so was RB Orleans Darkwa. And Eli Manning suffered a neck injury. The only good news is that Eli should be fine. But the Week 6 Giants will look a lot different than the pre-Week 5 Giants, and if OBJ and Marshall are indeed done, Eli will struggle to post top 18 QB numbers the rest of the season.
Jaguars – Leonard Fournette. Unless he gets hurt, there’s no other Jag worth mentioning all year.
Steelers – “Maybe I don’t have it anymore.” That was Ben Roethlisberger’s reaction to his five-interception Sunday, which included two pick-6’s. To be fair, Jacksonville’s D is for real. To be unfair, Big Ben is barely on the QB2 radar next week in Kansas City and realistically might not be a QB1 more than a couple more times all season.
Ravens – I called it quits on Mike Wallace a two weeks ago. Mea culpa. After starting the season with three catches and 21 yards—in three games combined—he’s broken through in weeks 4 and 5 and is a terrific sell-high receiver if you can net WR3 value.
Raiders – Responding to a question on this page yesterday morning, I recommended Marshawn Lynch over Latavius Murray in Week 5, making a comment somewhere along the lines of “This is the one time I’ll recommend starting Lynch over an RB starter.” He came through with 53 yards and a touchdown. But beyond the stats, the warning signs are everywhere: inefficient running and an ascending Jalen Richard. Sell high on Lynch (RB2 value if possible) before he’s hurt or in a time-share.
Seahawks – What’s all the fuss about Seattle’s backfield? Someone asked me yesterday whether to start Eddie Lacy or Thomas Rawls. I equated it to a debate over whether to start Jeff Hornacek or Toni Kukoc in fantasy basketball (circa 1990s). It’s really a false choice these days. Yes, a road game against the Rams creates more challenges than the average matchup. But Seattle’s offensive line problems and the “many mouths to feed” Seahawks offense makes this a sit-back-and-wait backfield.
Rams – Todd Gurley was rendered irrelevant against Seattle’s tough D. As I warned last week, next up are Jacksonville and Arizona, then the Giants, Houston, and Minnesota. Gurley could continue to shock me. But I’ve been anticipating a return to TD-dependent RB2 production, and this rough stretch will prove me right or wrong.
Packers – Someone asked me last night what they should do with Ty Montgomery. Good question. I’ve been consistent about this since the summer: Montgomery is a part-time back who was thrust into more of a full-time role, averaging 20 touches per game through the first three weeks. Aaron Jones looked incredible Sunday. There’s no conceivable way Montgomery will earn more than 10-12 touches a game when he returns, regardless of Jones’s status. Hopefully you can get RB2 value for Montgomery, convincing an opponent that he’ll continue to be a major backfield threat, and that Jones’s Week 5 effort was a fluke (though it probably wasn’t).
Cowboys – It isn’t always pretty, but Dez Bryant is now posting WR2 numbers on the season and is one or two good games away from cracking the WR1 circle. He was one of my favorite undervalued top 25 receivers entering the season. A Zeke Elliott suspension will make him even more valuable.
Chiefs – Alex Smith was fantastic in a tough road matchup. I’m continually amazed at how wrong I was—and still am—about this formerly perennial sub-middling fantasy talent.
Texans – DeShaun Watson struggled for much of the game, yet still gave fantasy managers a ton to cheer about. That’s the mark of a valuable fantasy commodity. Oh, and Will Fuller is for real. All it took was a competent QB to convert Houston into a team that could support 3+ fantasy contributors per week.