Just when you think your team is doomed at 0-3, a few guys step up and remind you the playoffs are within reach. And just when you think your team is rolling at 3-0, a couple guys get hurt and remind you that roster management never ends.
Yesterday threw enough curve balls to keep many people a bit off-balance--though if you listened to the FF4W bargains/busts podcast (https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013), you might have scored big. 11 of my 15 picks hit, including avoiding Derek Carr and Ben Roethlisberger and propping up seemingly unstartable guys like Andre Ellington and Hunter Henry. The weekly podcast includes many insights not shared on this page. If enough people listen and enjoy it, I'll keep producing them.
As we always do Monday mornings, let's look at each team's biggest fantasy impact:
Saints -- For months FF4W has been pushing Alvin Kamara as New Orleans' most undervalued RB. Essentially, if you were going to invest in him, Mark Ingram, or Adrian Peterson, the rookie offered the most upside at the least price. Yesterday Kamara nearly out-touched Mark Ingram and clearly outplayed him. This trend isn't likely to reverse course.
Dolphins -- During the London game, I tweeted out what seemed obvious to everyone--that Jay Cutler should have stayed retired: https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/914497028213936128. If Miami has a shot at the postseason, it's with Matt Moore at the helm. The easiest part of the Dolphins' schedule is over, and the team has two TDs to show for it (vs. 41 last season). No Fin is a reliable fantasy starter until Cutler leaves the scene.
Bills -- I have to mention two guys here. First, Jordan Matthews will have thumb surgery and will miss a month or more. As Buffalo is one of the league's least pass-friendly teams (Matthews is the #1 wideout despite catching only 10 balls all year), this won't have the kind of impact it would have on other teams. Zay Jones and Andre Holmes go from WR7's to WR5/6's. Second, Charles Clay. Wow. He's been an elite fantasy TE in three of four weeks and will continue to produce with Matthews out. As the roughly 200 FF4W preseason ranking subscribers know, he was ranked higher on my draft board (16th TE and 156 overall) than on any other known draft board. For example, Fantasy Pros' compilation of about a hundred experts placed him in the bottom 5 among TEs. This is yet another example of what I often push: When the world goes "zig" and you go "zag," if you believe in your research and analysis, keep going "zag." Don't listen to the noise, no matter how loud or pervasive.
Falcons -- Losing Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu put Atlanta in a hole they couldn't get out of. If there's a silver lining, Julio's hip flexor came right before the Falcons' bye week, so he'll have 13 days to recover. Justin Hardy would be in the streaming conversation if Julio and Sanu remain out, while Tevin Coleman would go from "nust-start in PPR" to "must-start throughout the fantasy universe."
Bengals -- Last night I was kicking myself for not pushing Tyler Kroft. I had planned to hype him when I wrote about Tyler Eifert last week, but even going against Cleveland, he seemed like the ultimate dart throw in a week when plenty of top 14-24 TEs could produce. The thing about Kroft is that Andy Dalton doesn't have any obvious #2 receiver beyond A.J. Green. Brandon LaFell has a low ceiling, Tyler Boyd's been a bust, and John Ross has been hurt. Kroft is a legit streaming TE in the near term.
Browns -- Remember Rashard Higgins? That's why we don't pounce on random receivers after one big game--unless that receiver has a clear path for posting more big numbers. What's true today was true this summer: no Brown receiver is worth rostering--must less starting--in most leagues. As always, more of the offense should run through Duke Johnson, and less of the offense should run through Isaiah Crowell. I'll keep beating that drum until the drum answers (or something like that--you get what I'm saying).
Rams -- I was painfully wrong about Todd Gurley this weekend. Held in check for two-thirds of the game, he broke through near the end of the third quarter and never looked back. Hats off to those who held on. While I still think he'll return to earth, yesterday was an important test, and he clearly passed.
Cowboys -- Dak Prescott has gotten better each week. While some of that has to do with the competition, he's established himself has a top 10 QB with top 5 upside if everyone stays healthy (and unsuspended).
Lions -- Ameer Abdullah picked up his first rushing touchdown since 2015. Crazy, right? Oh, and he now has two in his past 20 games. With Theo Riddick largely silenced and underperforming all season, Abdullah has an opening to be a reliable RB2--provided he keeps earning 18+ touches.
Vikings -- All injuries are devastating. When it happens to a rookie seemingly destined for elite production, it's particularly agonizing. We want to see these guys do things that few before them have done. If Cook misses a lot of time, Latavius Murray would ascend to hit-or-miss RB3 status, and Jerick McKinnon would be a name to watch in deeper leagues in case Murray falters.
Panthers -- I didn't think Carolina would clear 17 points. Instead, they doubled it and ruined the season for the many Survivor Pool competitors convinced the Patriots would win convincingly. While Cam Newton and his four TDs deserve special recognition, the most compelling fantasy story is Devin Funchess, who's been playing at another level since Greg Olsen's injury. Funchess is now a guy you want to start for a while and then sell high, because once Olsen returns, it will be hard for Funchess to earn weekly fantasy startability, even in deep leagues.
Patriots -- I had pegged New England's DST as a fantastic draft-day investment. Instead, they're dead last in fantasy points and have given up an average of 32 points per game. Of course, this is great news for those leaning on Tom Brady, as he's throwing more in the fourth quarter than we've seen in recent years.
Steelers -- I had predicted down games for Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. Bell converted a whopping 39 touches into RB1 production, while Brown had one of his worst games in years. Bell's now on pace for 416 touches, which would place him in the top 25 on the all-time season list. Something to monitor.
Ravens -- This team might not win more than six games. Whether or not it's due to his preseason back injury, Joe Flacco (possibly in combination with the offensive line) is the biggest culprit. His yards-per-pass is around 5.0, which is embarrassingly bad for a starter, let alone a veteran. And no, I don't think Danny Woodhead's absence matters. The Ravens have enough weapons to score, and they're not getting it done. Signed through 2021, Flacco is simply a liability this season.
Jaguars -- Remember when I warned about Leonard Fournette in August and September? Flat wrong. Granted, Allen Robinson's Week 1 injury thrust the rookie into the primary role. But he's earned every accolade thus far. The one warning sign all season remains the same: he's up to 81 carries, putting him on pace for 324. For a guy who battled injuries in college and over the summer, the heavy workload makes him a greater injury risk than the average starting RB.
Jets -- With Matt Forte sidelined, and I broke with past statements and urged readers to start Bilal Powell. So those of you who drafted him too early have a reprieve: you should be able to find a trading partner, pitching Powell as an RB2 going forward (he won't be).
Titans -- The only thing worse than the Titans getting pummeled was Marcus Mariota exiting early with a hamstring injury. As most of you know, I had more doubts about Mariota this preseason than most people, unable to comprehend the wave of "top 8 QB" talk. Corey Davis's absence certainly hasn't helped. Mariota is better than how he's played and worse than his average preseason ADP suggested. But for now, we just have to hope the hamstring injury isn't serious.
Texans -- Break up the Texans! Can anyone remember why this team started Tom Savage Week 1? Deshaun Watson racked up five touchdowns yesterday and has a soft enough schedule to keep rolling most of the season. Games against Kansas City (Week 5) and Seattle (Week 8) are the two most glaring "risky start" contests. Otherwise, he should be in weekly lineups.
49ers -- Carlos Hyde earned RB2 production and didn't get seriously hurt, which is a victory for anyone who's leaning on him this season. As I've said multiple times, sell high while you can. Or pick up Matt Breida and sell him high as soon as (or to be fair, "if") Hyde goes down.
Cardinals -- Every season I go out on a big limb dozens and dozens of times. Usually I preface it by saying something like "I'm staking my reputation on the believe that . . ." My goal is to get more than 50% of the "big limb" predictions correct. These are the picks that run contrary to common sense--or at least universal sensibilities. For weeks I've been pushing Andre Ellington as the RB to roster in Arizona. Ignore Kerwynn Williams. Ignore Chris Johnson. I made the plea again several times last week. More than 120 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros ranked him, on average, as Week 4's 37th best RB--in other words, virtually unstartable. One person placed him better than 30th (Brad Richter at #24), while more than half ranked him 44th or worse. Whether you're a regular or casual reader of this page, you know how much I was urging folks to start the unheralded Ellington. The result was low-end RB1 production: nine catches and 104 total yards.
Eagles -- Wendell Smallwood poached a TD, but LeGarrette Blount stole the show: 16 rushes for 136 yards. I swung and missed big on the presumed demise of Blount, who a couple weeks ago looked headed for retirement. Maybe being on the precipice of irrelevance kicked him into another gear. Regardless, that's two straight excellent games for Blount.
Chargers -- It was a frustrating day for Melvin Gordon and for those who started him. Yesterday's letdown probably was due to him playing hurt. Keep an eye on his recovery this week and his health in general these next couple of months; the 0-4 Chargers are looking like they'll be playing for pride this season, which is not generally a good thing when you're leaning on a nicked-up star player during the fantasy playoffs.
Giants -- Paul Perkins picked up 13 yards on nine carries, got hurt, and (in all likelihood) ceded 1a RB dutiess to rookie Wayne Gallman. Gallman might not be the answer in New York, but he proved capable and found the end zone. That should be enough to make him the lead back in the Giants' unenviable committee, which means RB3/4 production with TD-dependent upside.
Buccaneers -- I didn't buy into Cameron Brate last year and slept on him this season. He's now scored twice in his past two contests, which is all the more incredible considering fellow TE O.J. Howard isn't going anywhere.
Raiders -- Similar to the Tennessee-Houston game, Denver shut down Oakland, and Oakland's QB got hurt. We'll know more about Derek Carr's back spasms soon. If he misses time, E.J. Manuel's presence will significantly downgrade every Raider.
Broncos -- C.J. Anderson reasserted himself as the clear lead back only a week after it looked like Jamaal Charles would be a permanent backfield fixture. Anderson out-touched the veteran 24-6. Clearly I haven't been able to read this correctly in recent weeks, and I probably won't be able to when they return in two weeks.
Colts -- I've told many of you this in September and will push a little harder this morning: Trade the 34-year-old Frank Gore while you can. His numbers look better than they are because of a couple TDs. Rostered in 100% of ESPN leagues, you should be able to find a motivated buyer looking for a low-end RB2. In reality, Gore's 3.1 YPC and Indy's sub-par offense--not to mention Robert Turbin poaching a score yesterday--make the veteran a huge weekly risk. Get what you can and move on.
Seahawks -- Chris Carson reportedly has a serious ankle injury, which could mean a long stint on the sidelines. Even before the injury, hopefully some of you saw the writing on the wall--that running behind a bad offensive line and competing with a sizable backfield were not a recipe for long-term dominance. As many of you have heard from me, Carson's ceiling was always capped. Just like Eddie Lacy's and Thomas Rawls' ceilings are capped. And yes, even J.D. McKissic, while a great story, is unlikely to be worth starting more than once out of every three to four games. We'll learn soon whether Carson is droppable or stashable. For now, let's learn from all this and be prepared to sell high on whatever Seattle RB gets hyped next.
Yesterday threw enough curve balls to keep many people a bit off-balance--though if you listened to the FF4W bargains/busts podcast (https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013), you might have scored big. 11 of my 15 picks hit, including avoiding Derek Carr and Ben Roethlisberger and propping up seemingly unstartable guys like Andre Ellington and Hunter Henry. The weekly podcast includes many insights not shared on this page. If enough people listen and enjoy it, I'll keep producing them.
As we always do Monday mornings, let's look at each team's biggest fantasy impact:
Saints -- For months FF4W has been pushing Alvin Kamara as New Orleans' most undervalued RB. Essentially, if you were going to invest in him, Mark Ingram, or Adrian Peterson, the rookie offered the most upside at the least price. Yesterday Kamara nearly out-touched Mark Ingram and clearly outplayed him. This trend isn't likely to reverse course.
Dolphins -- During the London game, I tweeted out what seemed obvious to everyone--that Jay Cutler should have stayed retired: https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/914497028213936128. If Miami has a shot at the postseason, it's with Matt Moore at the helm. The easiest part of the Dolphins' schedule is over, and the team has two TDs to show for it (vs. 41 last season). No Fin is a reliable fantasy starter until Cutler leaves the scene.
Bills -- I have to mention two guys here. First, Jordan Matthews will have thumb surgery and will miss a month or more. As Buffalo is one of the league's least pass-friendly teams (Matthews is the #1 wideout despite catching only 10 balls all year), this won't have the kind of impact it would have on other teams. Zay Jones and Andre Holmes go from WR7's to WR5/6's. Second, Charles Clay. Wow. He's been an elite fantasy TE in three of four weeks and will continue to produce with Matthews out. As the roughly 200 FF4W preseason ranking subscribers know, he was ranked higher on my draft board (16th TE and 156 overall) than on any other known draft board. For example, Fantasy Pros' compilation of about a hundred experts placed him in the bottom 5 among TEs. This is yet another example of what I often push: When the world goes "zig" and you go "zag," if you believe in your research and analysis, keep going "zag." Don't listen to the noise, no matter how loud or pervasive.
Falcons -- Losing Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu put Atlanta in a hole they couldn't get out of. If there's a silver lining, Julio's hip flexor came right before the Falcons' bye week, so he'll have 13 days to recover. Justin Hardy would be in the streaming conversation if Julio and Sanu remain out, while Tevin Coleman would go from "nust-start in PPR" to "must-start throughout the fantasy universe."
Bengals -- Last night I was kicking myself for not pushing Tyler Kroft. I had planned to hype him when I wrote about Tyler Eifert last week, but even going against Cleveland, he seemed like the ultimate dart throw in a week when plenty of top 14-24 TEs could produce. The thing about Kroft is that Andy Dalton doesn't have any obvious #2 receiver beyond A.J. Green. Brandon LaFell has a low ceiling, Tyler Boyd's been a bust, and John Ross has been hurt. Kroft is a legit streaming TE in the near term.
Browns -- Remember Rashard Higgins? That's why we don't pounce on random receivers after one big game--unless that receiver has a clear path for posting more big numbers. What's true today was true this summer: no Brown receiver is worth rostering--must less starting--in most leagues. As always, more of the offense should run through Duke Johnson, and less of the offense should run through Isaiah Crowell. I'll keep beating that drum until the drum answers (or something like that--you get what I'm saying).
Rams -- I was painfully wrong about Todd Gurley this weekend. Held in check for two-thirds of the game, he broke through near the end of the third quarter and never looked back. Hats off to those who held on. While I still think he'll return to earth, yesterday was an important test, and he clearly passed.
Cowboys -- Dak Prescott has gotten better each week. While some of that has to do with the competition, he's established himself has a top 10 QB with top 5 upside if everyone stays healthy (and unsuspended).
Lions -- Ameer Abdullah picked up his first rushing touchdown since 2015. Crazy, right? Oh, and he now has two in his past 20 games. With Theo Riddick largely silenced and underperforming all season, Abdullah has an opening to be a reliable RB2--provided he keeps earning 18+ touches.
Vikings -- All injuries are devastating. When it happens to a rookie seemingly destined for elite production, it's particularly agonizing. We want to see these guys do things that few before them have done. If Cook misses a lot of time, Latavius Murray would ascend to hit-or-miss RB3 status, and Jerick McKinnon would be a name to watch in deeper leagues in case Murray falters.
Panthers -- I didn't think Carolina would clear 17 points. Instead, they doubled it and ruined the season for the many Survivor Pool competitors convinced the Patriots would win convincingly. While Cam Newton and his four TDs deserve special recognition, the most compelling fantasy story is Devin Funchess, who's been playing at another level since Greg Olsen's injury. Funchess is now a guy you want to start for a while and then sell high, because once Olsen returns, it will be hard for Funchess to earn weekly fantasy startability, even in deep leagues.
Patriots -- I had pegged New England's DST as a fantastic draft-day investment. Instead, they're dead last in fantasy points and have given up an average of 32 points per game. Of course, this is great news for those leaning on Tom Brady, as he's throwing more in the fourth quarter than we've seen in recent years.
Steelers -- I had predicted down games for Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. Bell converted a whopping 39 touches into RB1 production, while Brown had one of his worst games in years. Bell's now on pace for 416 touches, which would place him in the top 25 on the all-time season list. Something to monitor.
Ravens -- This team might not win more than six games. Whether or not it's due to his preseason back injury, Joe Flacco (possibly in combination with the offensive line) is the biggest culprit. His yards-per-pass is around 5.0, which is embarrassingly bad for a starter, let alone a veteran. And no, I don't think Danny Woodhead's absence matters. The Ravens have enough weapons to score, and they're not getting it done. Signed through 2021, Flacco is simply a liability this season.
Jaguars -- Remember when I warned about Leonard Fournette in August and September? Flat wrong. Granted, Allen Robinson's Week 1 injury thrust the rookie into the primary role. But he's earned every accolade thus far. The one warning sign all season remains the same: he's up to 81 carries, putting him on pace for 324. For a guy who battled injuries in college and over the summer, the heavy workload makes him a greater injury risk than the average starting RB.
Jets -- With Matt Forte sidelined, and I broke with past statements and urged readers to start Bilal Powell. So those of you who drafted him too early have a reprieve: you should be able to find a trading partner, pitching Powell as an RB2 going forward (he won't be).
Titans -- The only thing worse than the Titans getting pummeled was Marcus Mariota exiting early with a hamstring injury. As most of you know, I had more doubts about Mariota this preseason than most people, unable to comprehend the wave of "top 8 QB" talk. Corey Davis's absence certainly hasn't helped. Mariota is better than how he's played and worse than his average preseason ADP suggested. But for now, we just have to hope the hamstring injury isn't serious.
Texans -- Break up the Texans! Can anyone remember why this team started Tom Savage Week 1? Deshaun Watson racked up five touchdowns yesterday and has a soft enough schedule to keep rolling most of the season. Games against Kansas City (Week 5) and Seattle (Week 8) are the two most glaring "risky start" contests. Otherwise, he should be in weekly lineups.
49ers -- Carlos Hyde earned RB2 production and didn't get seriously hurt, which is a victory for anyone who's leaning on him this season. As I've said multiple times, sell high while you can. Or pick up Matt Breida and sell him high as soon as (or to be fair, "if") Hyde goes down.
Cardinals -- Every season I go out on a big limb dozens and dozens of times. Usually I preface it by saying something like "I'm staking my reputation on the believe that . . ." My goal is to get more than 50% of the "big limb" predictions correct. These are the picks that run contrary to common sense--or at least universal sensibilities. For weeks I've been pushing Andre Ellington as the RB to roster in Arizona. Ignore Kerwynn Williams. Ignore Chris Johnson. I made the plea again several times last week. More than 120 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros ranked him, on average, as Week 4's 37th best RB--in other words, virtually unstartable. One person placed him better than 30th (Brad Richter at #24), while more than half ranked him 44th or worse. Whether you're a regular or casual reader of this page, you know how much I was urging folks to start the unheralded Ellington. The result was low-end RB1 production: nine catches and 104 total yards.
Eagles -- Wendell Smallwood poached a TD, but LeGarrette Blount stole the show: 16 rushes for 136 yards. I swung and missed big on the presumed demise of Blount, who a couple weeks ago looked headed for retirement. Maybe being on the precipice of irrelevance kicked him into another gear. Regardless, that's two straight excellent games for Blount.
Chargers -- It was a frustrating day for Melvin Gordon and for those who started him. Yesterday's letdown probably was due to him playing hurt. Keep an eye on his recovery this week and his health in general these next couple of months; the 0-4 Chargers are looking like they'll be playing for pride this season, which is not generally a good thing when you're leaning on a nicked-up star player during the fantasy playoffs.
Giants -- Paul Perkins picked up 13 yards on nine carries, got hurt, and (in all likelihood) ceded 1a RB dutiess to rookie Wayne Gallman. Gallman might not be the answer in New York, but he proved capable and found the end zone. That should be enough to make him the lead back in the Giants' unenviable committee, which means RB3/4 production with TD-dependent upside.
Buccaneers -- I didn't buy into Cameron Brate last year and slept on him this season. He's now scored twice in his past two contests, which is all the more incredible considering fellow TE O.J. Howard isn't going anywhere.
Raiders -- Similar to the Tennessee-Houston game, Denver shut down Oakland, and Oakland's QB got hurt. We'll know more about Derek Carr's back spasms soon. If he misses time, E.J. Manuel's presence will significantly downgrade every Raider.
Broncos -- C.J. Anderson reasserted himself as the clear lead back only a week after it looked like Jamaal Charles would be a permanent backfield fixture. Anderson out-touched the veteran 24-6. Clearly I haven't been able to read this correctly in recent weeks, and I probably won't be able to when they return in two weeks.
Colts -- I've told many of you this in September and will push a little harder this morning: Trade the 34-year-old Frank Gore while you can. His numbers look better than they are because of a couple TDs. Rostered in 100% of ESPN leagues, you should be able to find a motivated buyer looking for a low-end RB2. In reality, Gore's 3.1 YPC and Indy's sub-par offense--not to mention Robert Turbin poaching a score yesterday--make the veteran a huge weekly risk. Get what you can and move on.
Seahawks -- Chris Carson reportedly has a serious ankle injury, which could mean a long stint on the sidelines. Even before the injury, hopefully some of you saw the writing on the wall--that running behind a bad offensive line and competing with a sizable backfield were not a recipe for long-term dominance. As many of you have heard from me, Carson's ceiling was always capped. Just like Eddie Lacy's and Thomas Rawls' ceilings are capped. And yes, even J.D. McKissic, while a great story, is unlikely to be worth starting more than once out of every three to four games. We'll learn soon whether Carson is droppable or stashable. For now, let's learn from all this and be prepared to sell high on whatever Seattle RB gets hyped next.