My latest bargains/busts podcast is now out:
https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-7-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts
Last weekend I hit 11 out of 16 and have been consistently above 60%--and sometimes at or above 70%--the past five weeks. I'm not picking guys who are undervalued simply because of a late-week scratch (for example, Chris Ivory due to Leonard Fournette's expected absence). Yes, Ivory is a solid play this week as an RB2/3. But I'm not going to take credit for saying this week's 44th ranked RB will break out. The podcast features plenty of surprises that could seem downright stupid. And that's the point.
Speaking of Fournette, he's a fascinating player to monitor this season. I was adamant all summer that Fournette's chronic ankle injuries in college--and their re-emergence in the preseason--was a major warning sign to those expecting RB1 or even high-end RB2 production. Then he's gone out and dominated the first six weeks of the season. The past two weeks I've thrown in the towel, acknowledging that he's as good or better than advertised, and that my concerns were misplaced.
Now an ankle injury is expected to sideline him today. Whatever Fournette has done and could do for the rest of his career, put it aside. Chronic injuries generally don't just go away, unless a player changes the way he plays (Steph Curry is a great example, as his career almost ended a few years ago . . . until a new team strength and conditioning coach taught Curry how to adjust his balance and movements to minimize pressure on his ankles).
So today could simply be one missed game for Fournette in an otherwise 15-game, RB1 season. But I believe the red flag is real and isn't going anywhere.
And here's my Week 7 DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. I've gone through four dramatically different lineups this morning. In other words, today's has been tougher than any other I've tried this season. But my lineups have hit big in recent weeks, and I'm doing my best to keep it going.
QB Dak Prescott ($8,400) -- I seriously considered a couple other QBs, including Tom Brady. The fact is, Dallas could jump out to a comfortable lead with an effective ground game, limiting Prescott's upside. But in 50/50, I like Prescott's odds of getting at least two scores, so I'm comfortable paying that price for him.
RB Mark Ingram ($7,100) -- His price is too low to pass him by. With Adrian Peterson gone, Ingram and/or Alvin Kamara will do well today. I thought about stacking both Saint backs, but that would be too much of a hedge. With Kamara priced almost as high, Ingram is the better value.
RB Jerick McKinnon ($7,000) -- No Chris Ivory ($5,900), which is where my mind was when I woke up this morning. Instead, McKinnon gets the nod against a beatable Ravens run D. I was all in on McKinnon last week for a reason. The same is true this week.
WR Antonio Brown ($9,300) -- Yes, Cincy has a good D, and the latest reports suggest Martavis Bryant will get more involved than usual today. And of course, Big Ben has been mediocre at best. But there is plenty of bad blood between these two teams, and Brown has the most wrongs to right (I talk through this in the podcast).
WR Julio Jones ($8,800) -- Speaking of wrongs to right, Julio and the Falcons will put everything on the line in today's Super Bowl rematch against a Patriots D that's having trouble stopping the pass (and for that matter, the run). Atlanta needs to get Julio going. He's one of only four top 40 fantasy wideouts without a score. That will change today.
WR Kenny Stills ($4,900) -- As I share in the podcast, for his career Stills is averaging a TD every eight receptions (much better than Julio and Brown, and yes, even better than Calvin Johnson). At this price, and given Parker's status, Stills is one of the best dart throws in fantasy.
TE George Kittle ($4,800) -- Another bargain highlighted in the podcast, Kittle has been one of the NFL's most targeted tight ends the past two weeks. He's a safe bet at only $4,800.
K Will Lutz ($4,800) -- It's not the first time I've put Lutz on this weekly list, and until his price increases, it won't be the last.
DST Vikings ($4,700) -- My one hesitation here is that the Ravens-Vikings game could be run-focused, which would limit turnovers and sacks. But at $4,700, this is simply a very safe play.
Good luck today.
https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-7-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts
Last weekend I hit 11 out of 16 and have been consistently above 60%--and sometimes at or above 70%--the past five weeks. I'm not picking guys who are undervalued simply because of a late-week scratch (for example, Chris Ivory due to Leonard Fournette's expected absence). Yes, Ivory is a solid play this week as an RB2/3. But I'm not going to take credit for saying this week's 44th ranked RB will break out. The podcast features plenty of surprises that could seem downright stupid. And that's the point.
Speaking of Fournette, he's a fascinating player to monitor this season. I was adamant all summer that Fournette's chronic ankle injuries in college--and their re-emergence in the preseason--was a major warning sign to those expecting RB1 or even high-end RB2 production. Then he's gone out and dominated the first six weeks of the season. The past two weeks I've thrown in the towel, acknowledging that he's as good or better than advertised, and that my concerns were misplaced.
Now an ankle injury is expected to sideline him today. Whatever Fournette has done and could do for the rest of his career, put it aside. Chronic injuries generally don't just go away, unless a player changes the way he plays (Steph Curry is a great example, as his career almost ended a few years ago . . . until a new team strength and conditioning coach taught Curry how to adjust his balance and movements to minimize pressure on his ankles).
So today could simply be one missed game for Fournette in an otherwise 15-game, RB1 season. But I believe the red flag is real and isn't going anywhere.
And here's my Week 7 DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. I've gone through four dramatically different lineups this morning. In other words, today's has been tougher than any other I've tried this season. But my lineups have hit big in recent weeks, and I'm doing my best to keep it going.
QB Dak Prescott ($8,400) -- I seriously considered a couple other QBs, including Tom Brady. The fact is, Dallas could jump out to a comfortable lead with an effective ground game, limiting Prescott's upside. But in 50/50, I like Prescott's odds of getting at least two scores, so I'm comfortable paying that price for him.
RB Mark Ingram ($7,100) -- His price is too low to pass him by. With Adrian Peterson gone, Ingram and/or Alvin Kamara will do well today. I thought about stacking both Saint backs, but that would be too much of a hedge. With Kamara priced almost as high, Ingram is the better value.
RB Jerick McKinnon ($7,000) -- No Chris Ivory ($5,900), which is where my mind was when I woke up this morning. Instead, McKinnon gets the nod against a beatable Ravens run D. I was all in on McKinnon last week for a reason. The same is true this week.
WR Antonio Brown ($9,300) -- Yes, Cincy has a good D, and the latest reports suggest Martavis Bryant will get more involved than usual today. And of course, Big Ben has been mediocre at best. But there is plenty of bad blood between these two teams, and Brown has the most wrongs to right (I talk through this in the podcast).
WR Julio Jones ($8,800) -- Speaking of wrongs to right, Julio and the Falcons will put everything on the line in today's Super Bowl rematch against a Patriots D that's having trouble stopping the pass (and for that matter, the run). Atlanta needs to get Julio going. He's one of only four top 40 fantasy wideouts without a score. That will change today.
WR Kenny Stills ($4,900) -- As I share in the podcast, for his career Stills is averaging a TD every eight receptions (much better than Julio and Brown, and yes, even better than Calvin Johnson). At this price, and given Parker's status, Stills is one of the best dart throws in fantasy.
TE George Kittle ($4,800) -- Another bargain highlighted in the podcast, Kittle has been one of the NFL's most targeted tight ends the past two weeks. He's a safe bet at only $4,800.
K Will Lutz ($4,800) -- It's not the first time I've put Lutz on this weekly list, and until his price increases, it won't be the last.
DST Vikings ($4,700) -- My one hesitation here is that the Ravens-Vikings game could be run-focused, which would limit turnovers and sacks. But at $4,700, this is simply a very safe play.
Good luck today.