As with every Tuesday, so many questions came in yesterday about whether to pick up Player A or Player B (and sometimes Players C-thru-J). There's no right answer, because if there were, you'd already know it.
To solve this dilemma, I look at two things: the quality of my team, and each player's floor/ceiling. So if you're 0-4 and getting blown out every week, aim high. Take a guy with a 30% chance of becoming an RB1 (and 70% chance of remaining an RB4) vs. a guy with an 80% chance of being an RB2/3 (and maybe only a 5% chance of hitting the RB1 plateau). If you're 1-3 and have lost two close ones--if bad luck is keeping your team from breaking through--and if Player B's likely RB2/3 production gives you a positional upgrade, then it might make more sense to play it safer and take the small upgrade. Why? Because you need wins now. You can't afford to wait 2-3 weeks for Player A to *maybe* break out.
If you're 4-0 or 3-1, you have a little flexibility to look longer term at the high-risk/high-reward guys. High floors might keep you out of the league basement, but high ceilings make champions.
Looking around the league, Aaron Jones is a big target this week. Does he has RB1 upside? Only if Ty Montgomery misses most of the season. It looks like Green Bay's top running back is, at best, questionable for Week 5, and surely he'll be a re-injury risk if he returns too soon. But Montgomery won't be relegated to the sidelines whenever he does return. At best, Jones will jump Jamaal Williams on the depth chart and split time with Montgomery for most of the season. Again, "at best," barring a serious Montgomery re-injury. That gives Jones an RB2 ceiling and a more realistic RB3 value when both guys are on the field. That's why I'm advising Jones for people who need an RB2 and who can afford to take the risk. I'm not advising him as a stash for the fantasy playoffs.
So the next time you're wondering whether to make a waiver add--and for FAAB folks, how much you want to spend--consider your record and the player's floor/ceiling. Based on that combination of factors, you should have a good sense of how much he's worth to you.
To solve this dilemma, I look at two things: the quality of my team, and each player's floor/ceiling. So if you're 0-4 and getting blown out every week, aim high. Take a guy with a 30% chance of becoming an RB1 (and 70% chance of remaining an RB4) vs. a guy with an 80% chance of being an RB2/3 (and maybe only a 5% chance of hitting the RB1 plateau). If you're 1-3 and have lost two close ones--if bad luck is keeping your team from breaking through--and if Player B's likely RB2/3 production gives you a positional upgrade, then it might make more sense to play it safer and take the small upgrade. Why? Because you need wins now. You can't afford to wait 2-3 weeks for Player A to *maybe* break out.
If you're 4-0 or 3-1, you have a little flexibility to look longer term at the high-risk/high-reward guys. High floors might keep you out of the league basement, but high ceilings make champions.
Looking around the league, Aaron Jones is a big target this week. Does he has RB1 upside? Only if Ty Montgomery misses most of the season. It looks like Green Bay's top running back is, at best, questionable for Week 5, and surely he'll be a re-injury risk if he returns too soon. But Montgomery won't be relegated to the sidelines whenever he does return. At best, Jones will jump Jamaal Williams on the depth chart and split time with Montgomery for most of the season. Again, "at best," barring a serious Montgomery re-injury. That gives Jones an RB2 ceiling and a more realistic RB3 value when both guys are on the field. That's why I'm advising Jones for people who need an RB2 and who can afford to take the risk. I'm not advising him as a stash for the fantasy playoffs.
So the next time you're wondering whether to make a waiver add--and for FAAB folks, how much you want to spend--consider your record and the player's floor/ceiling. Based on that combination of factors, you should have a good sense of how much he's worth to you.