A lot of your sit-start questions revolve around some surprisingly overvalued Week 6 RBs. I'm not advising benching these guys in all leagues. I am advising lowering expectations, and then finding replacements if those lowered expectations aren't good enough for your lineup.
Aaron Jones dominated last weekend. And so naturally, nearly every expert lists him as an RB1 or RB2 this weekend, with notables from CBS Sports and Yahoo! Sports placing him in the top 11. On the one hand, sure, Jones could be the real deal. But what are the odds that he'll come close to replicating Week 5's breakout in Minnesota? Ty Montgomery is returning. The Vikings are yielding 3.3 YPC and one rushing touchdown. Aaron Rodgers has a full slate of healthy receivers. Jones is realistically an RB3 at best and should have been sold high this week.
Doug Martin returned from a suspension to manhandle a Patriots D that hasn't stopped anyone on the ground. He'll carry the ball today in Arizona, which, aside from last week's modest letdown against Philly, has been brilliant against the run. Don't get me wrong: Martin is a terrific talent and is a certifiable RB2+ going forward. But nearly every expert is predicting RB1 numbers this week. I don't see it.
Did you sell high on Carlos Hyde last week? It's still not too late. All summer and into the fall, I haven't seen how Hyde could assist anyone in the fantasy playoffs: Either he'd lose his starting job, or he'd be sidelined with an injury. When guys have low probabilities of helping you win a playoff game, sell high when the moment strikes. You can still get something for him this morning. Take it while you can.
Jay Ajayi is in a similar boat. I talked about him in this weekend's podcast, which features several of my Week 6 boom-bust projections: https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-6-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts. Miami's offense is in disarray. Last year he had four games with 18+ fantasy points, two with 10 or 11, and the rest with eight or less. And that's in PPR. Most experts this weekend are clinging to the bizarre belief that Ajayi will produce RB1 numbers in Atlanta. My podcast says everything else I need to say on the subject. But understand that bell-cows rarely remain bell-cows all season--particularly those who rarely catch a pass and who are sitting at 3.4 YPC.
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Last week's "DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week" dominated, despite Stefon Diggs' early-game injury. Of course, I'm not going for domination; I'm going for doubling people's money. Here's my ideal Week 6 DFS 50/50 Lineup, using Fan Duel pricing:
QB Kirk Cousins ($7,800) -- A home game against the anemic 49ers will keep the moderately priced Cousins rolling.
RB Leonard Fournette ($8,600) -- After weeks of wrongly warning that this rookie was overrated, last week I sheepishly hopped on the bandwagon. As long as the offense runs through him, he's one of the safest 50-50 bets around.
RB Jerick McKinnon ($5,600) -- Too cheap to pass up. I thought about going with Samaje Perine, but Washington's rookie is a big unknown with a low YPC. Who knows whether Chris Thompson will earn more touches in the end? With Diggs out in Minnesota, I like McKinnon's projeccted usage.
WR Julio Jones ($8,400) -- When healthy, one of fantasy's three or four safest wideouts.
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) -- I've been warning against Hopkins for two years. "Houston needs to find a good QB" was my refrain. Well, they found it. So Hopkins is now a locked-in top 8 wideout. Facing Cleveland doesn't hurt.
WR Keenan Allen ($7,200) -- There are a dozen or more decent options at this price point. I'm going with the highly targeted Allen and an almost guaranteed WR3+ production (with WR1 upside).
TE Austin Hooper ($4,800) -- I wanted to go Evan Engram, but (a) couldn't afford him, and (b) talked myself into preferring Hooper anyway, as Atlanta's starting tight end was targeted seven times last week and should be involved again with Mohammed Sanu out. He also has more TD potential than Engram (facing Miami instead of Denver).
K Will Lutz ($4,700) -- Gotta love Lutz.
DST Ravens ($4,900) -- An easy top 10 DST this week with top 3 potential.
Good luck today.
Aaron Jones dominated last weekend. And so naturally, nearly every expert lists him as an RB1 or RB2 this weekend, with notables from CBS Sports and Yahoo! Sports placing him in the top 11. On the one hand, sure, Jones could be the real deal. But what are the odds that he'll come close to replicating Week 5's breakout in Minnesota? Ty Montgomery is returning. The Vikings are yielding 3.3 YPC and one rushing touchdown. Aaron Rodgers has a full slate of healthy receivers. Jones is realistically an RB3 at best and should have been sold high this week.
Doug Martin returned from a suspension to manhandle a Patriots D that hasn't stopped anyone on the ground. He'll carry the ball today in Arizona, which, aside from last week's modest letdown against Philly, has been brilliant against the run. Don't get me wrong: Martin is a terrific talent and is a certifiable RB2+ going forward. But nearly every expert is predicting RB1 numbers this week. I don't see it.
Did you sell high on Carlos Hyde last week? It's still not too late. All summer and into the fall, I haven't seen how Hyde could assist anyone in the fantasy playoffs: Either he'd lose his starting job, or he'd be sidelined with an injury. When guys have low probabilities of helping you win a playoff game, sell high when the moment strikes. You can still get something for him this morning. Take it while you can.
Jay Ajayi is in a similar boat. I talked about him in this weekend's podcast, which features several of my Week 6 boom-bust projections: https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013/week-6-fantasy-football-preview-bargains-and-busts. Miami's offense is in disarray. Last year he had four games with 18+ fantasy points, two with 10 or 11, and the rest with eight or less. And that's in PPR. Most experts this weekend are clinging to the bizarre belief that Ajayi will produce RB1 numbers in Atlanta. My podcast says everything else I need to say on the subject. But understand that bell-cows rarely remain bell-cows all season--particularly those who rarely catch a pass and who are sitting at 3.4 YPC.
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Last week's "DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week" dominated, despite Stefon Diggs' early-game injury. Of course, I'm not going for domination; I'm going for doubling people's money. Here's my ideal Week 6 DFS 50/50 Lineup, using Fan Duel pricing:
QB Kirk Cousins ($7,800) -- A home game against the anemic 49ers will keep the moderately priced Cousins rolling.
RB Leonard Fournette ($8,600) -- After weeks of wrongly warning that this rookie was overrated, last week I sheepishly hopped on the bandwagon. As long as the offense runs through him, he's one of the safest 50-50 bets around.
RB Jerick McKinnon ($5,600) -- Too cheap to pass up. I thought about going with Samaje Perine, but Washington's rookie is a big unknown with a low YPC. Who knows whether Chris Thompson will earn more touches in the end? With Diggs out in Minnesota, I like McKinnon's projeccted usage.
WR Julio Jones ($8,400) -- When healthy, one of fantasy's three or four safest wideouts.
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) -- I've been warning against Hopkins for two years. "Houston needs to find a good QB" was my refrain. Well, they found it. So Hopkins is now a locked-in top 8 wideout. Facing Cleveland doesn't hurt.
WR Keenan Allen ($7,200) -- There are a dozen or more decent options at this price point. I'm going with the highly targeted Allen and an almost guaranteed WR3+ production (with WR1 upside).
TE Austin Hooper ($4,800) -- I wanted to go Evan Engram, but (a) couldn't afford him, and (b) talked myself into preferring Hooper anyway, as Atlanta's starting tight end was targeted seven times last week and should be involved again with Mohammed Sanu out. He also has more TD potential than Engram (facing Miami instead of Denver).
K Will Lutz ($4,700) -- Gotta love Lutz.
DST Ravens ($4,900) -- An easy top 10 DST this week with top 3 potential.
Good luck today.