After consulting with the FF4W brain trust, I'm replacing the weekly "Tuesday Trader" feature with a rundown of some guys to target on waivers. Most leagues' waiver wires hit on Wednesday, so Tuesday is the best time to offer these thoughts.
Kicking things off, Jerick McKinnon: For a guy I've pushed on this site in the summers of 2014, 2015, and 2016, it's odd/stupid that I didn't push him harder heading into Week 5. The oddity/stupidity is exacerbated by the fact that I've open questioned Latavius Murray's value. What did I expect? My hesitation was based largely on Latavius Murray's recent $15 million contract, over $3 million of which is guaranteed. Surely the Vikings won't relegate him to the sidelines, right? McKinnon's upside is capped in this time-share right? Wrong. Despite calling McKinnon "the league's best #3 RB" this summer, I didn't follow through when it counted. In hindsight, I should have sounded the alarm that Murray's limitations and injury recovery could be enough to launch McKinnon into RB2 territory.
Long-time readers of this page know my views on McKinnon: He's always had RB1 upside if he ever earned 20+ touches. Despite stumbling last season in a timeshare with the TD-dependent Matt Asiata, McKinnon dominated in supplemental roles in 2015 and 2014. So the question now becomes, What will Minnesota do with Murray? McKinnon touched the ball nine times in the Vikes' final 13 plays last night. It's his job to lose. So does that mean 18+ touches? Or does it mean 12-14? If the former, he's the most valuable RB pickup of the week (yes, more valuable than Aaron Jones). If the latter, he's an RB2/3. Understanding this is all a guessing game at this point, I'd guess in favor of McKinnon earning 18+. Target him as your #1 waiver add if you need an RB.
Aaron Jones -- I drafted him in my 23-round league and then dropped him two weeks into the season after a rash of injuries forced me to replace promising talents like Jones with more sure-fire RB4s--focusing more on earning few extra points near-term to help me win. Bad mistake, of course. This is the luck and skill of fantasy football. Injuries to Green Bay's top two RBs allowed the world to see what Jones could do. But unlike Murray in Minnesota, Montgomery is essentially guaranteed a meaningful role . . . whenever he returns to the field. Jones is deceptively overrated. That's not to say he won't lead the backfield in touches another one or two or more times. But he has to thread the needle of excellence to be an every-week fantasy starter. Both Montgomery and the Packers' schedule (four opposing top-8 run defenses in weeks 13-16) will conspire to limit Jones's upside.
Who's healthy for the Giants? That's who you want to add. Keep an eye on which receivers they sign this week (yes, they need multiple additions); one of them might enter atop the depth chart, at least until Sterling Shepard returns. Shepard, by the way, has WR2 potential, so definitely try to snag him from your opponent. But don't overreach--yet. If your opponent is desperate for wins (that would be most fantasy managers at this point, since even 4-1 teams aren't safe), remind her/him that the Giants next face Denver and Seattle before going on a bye. You could get the injured receiver on the cheap if your opponent needs wins now.
Obviously, Ed Dickson isn't as amazing as his Week 5 production suggests. That said, he serves a purpose for those needing a TE rental. "Potential" is the key, of course. The 30-year-old's last relevant season was in 2011. He's a perennial backup TE for a reason, and with Greg Olsen likely to return by mid-November, Dickson is a back-end waiver add this week; you can find plenty of comparable streaming options in free agency.
Kansas City's #3 WR Albert Wilson was already outperforming #2 wideout Chris Conley before Conley was knocked out for the year Sunday. Don't expect more than WR4 numbers for Wilson most weeks, but that's enough to make him a sneaky deep-league streamer.
Derek Carr's now available in 26% of ESPN leagues. If 16 QBs are rostered in your league, and if Carr isn't one of them, he needs to be. His first two games this season were far more indicative of his potential than his next two. He should be back in action this weekend against the Chargers.
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Many of us picked the Steelers in the FF4W Survivor pool, so many of us were knocked out. 16 of the original 140 competitors remains. Congrats to those who've picked wisely.
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And a quick note that this weekend's DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week was a big winner, overcoming Stefon Diggs' mid-game injury and Eli Manning's modest numbers due to nearly all his teammates getting hurt. Melvin Gordon, T.Y. Hilton, and David Njoku were consistently used in a small percentage of competitions, meaning their huge numbers pushed this lineup above most others.
Kicking things off, Jerick McKinnon: For a guy I've pushed on this site in the summers of 2014, 2015, and 2016, it's odd/stupid that I didn't push him harder heading into Week 5. The oddity/stupidity is exacerbated by the fact that I've open questioned Latavius Murray's value. What did I expect? My hesitation was based largely on Latavius Murray's recent $15 million contract, over $3 million of which is guaranteed. Surely the Vikings won't relegate him to the sidelines, right? McKinnon's upside is capped in this time-share right? Wrong. Despite calling McKinnon "the league's best #3 RB" this summer, I didn't follow through when it counted. In hindsight, I should have sounded the alarm that Murray's limitations and injury recovery could be enough to launch McKinnon into RB2 territory.
Long-time readers of this page know my views on McKinnon: He's always had RB1 upside if he ever earned 20+ touches. Despite stumbling last season in a timeshare with the TD-dependent Matt Asiata, McKinnon dominated in supplemental roles in 2015 and 2014. So the question now becomes, What will Minnesota do with Murray? McKinnon touched the ball nine times in the Vikes' final 13 plays last night. It's his job to lose. So does that mean 18+ touches? Or does it mean 12-14? If the former, he's the most valuable RB pickup of the week (yes, more valuable than Aaron Jones). If the latter, he's an RB2/3. Understanding this is all a guessing game at this point, I'd guess in favor of McKinnon earning 18+. Target him as your #1 waiver add if you need an RB.
Aaron Jones -- I drafted him in my 23-round league and then dropped him two weeks into the season after a rash of injuries forced me to replace promising talents like Jones with more sure-fire RB4s--focusing more on earning few extra points near-term to help me win. Bad mistake, of course. This is the luck and skill of fantasy football. Injuries to Green Bay's top two RBs allowed the world to see what Jones could do. But unlike Murray in Minnesota, Montgomery is essentially guaranteed a meaningful role . . . whenever he returns to the field. Jones is deceptively overrated. That's not to say he won't lead the backfield in touches another one or two or more times. But he has to thread the needle of excellence to be an every-week fantasy starter. Both Montgomery and the Packers' schedule (four opposing top-8 run defenses in weeks 13-16) will conspire to limit Jones's upside.
Who's healthy for the Giants? That's who you want to add. Keep an eye on which receivers they sign this week (yes, they need multiple additions); one of them might enter atop the depth chart, at least until Sterling Shepard returns. Shepard, by the way, has WR2 potential, so definitely try to snag him from your opponent. But don't overreach--yet. If your opponent is desperate for wins (that would be most fantasy managers at this point, since even 4-1 teams aren't safe), remind her/him that the Giants next face Denver and Seattle before going on a bye. You could get the injured receiver on the cheap if your opponent needs wins now.
Obviously, Ed Dickson isn't as amazing as his Week 5 production suggests. That said, he serves a purpose for those needing a TE rental. "Potential" is the key, of course. The 30-year-old's last relevant season was in 2011. He's a perennial backup TE for a reason, and with Greg Olsen likely to return by mid-November, Dickson is a back-end waiver add this week; you can find plenty of comparable streaming options in free agency.
Kansas City's #3 WR Albert Wilson was already outperforming #2 wideout Chris Conley before Conley was knocked out for the year Sunday. Don't expect more than WR4 numbers for Wilson most weeks, but that's enough to make him a sneaky deep-league streamer.
Derek Carr's now available in 26% of ESPN leagues. If 16 QBs are rostered in your league, and if Carr isn't one of them, he needs to be. His first two games this season were far more indicative of his potential than his next two. He should be back in action this weekend against the Chargers.
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Many of us picked the Steelers in the FF4W Survivor pool, so many of us were knocked out. 16 of the original 140 competitors remains. Congrats to those who've picked wisely.
---
And a quick note that this weekend's DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week was a big winner, overcoming Stefon Diggs' mid-game injury and Eli Manning's modest numbers due to nearly all his teammates getting hurt. Melvin Gordon, T.Y. Hilton, and David Njoku were consistently used in a small percentage of competitions, meaning their huge numbers pushed this lineup above most others.