A reminder that this weekend's bargains/busts podcast is available here: https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013. About 15-20 unconventional predictions every week, delivered in four minutes and 44 seconds. Believe it or not, my original concept was a 44-second podcast where I'd talk really, really fast. It was more gimmick than anything else, kind of like my last book. But the 44-second idea was immediately rejected by everyone I mentioned it to. I'm keeping it in my back pocket, though.
Since starting the "Ideal DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week" feature in Week 2, I've hit on 83%. Last week marked three consecutive dominant lineups--as in, the kind of lineups that also could have won some bucks in higher-stakes DFS tournaments (where you often have to finish in the top 15%).
But I'm only as good as my last call, so let's see if I can keep this up. As with past weeks, my picks have gone through a bunch of iterations since my first crack at it on Friday. Duke Johnson, Alvin Kamara, James White, Kelvin Benjamin, Austin Hooper, Tyler Kroft, and Zach Ertz have made their way in and out of lineup. My focus is on high-floor, high-upside guys. It takes two or three breakout performers to more than compensate for a couple of duds.
QB Carson Wentz ($7,900) -- 11 TDs in his last three games, and facing an anemic 49ers D at home. What could go wrong? Of course, plenty could go wrong, including LeGarrette Blount scoring three times and Wentz game-managing the rest of the way. But realistically, the second-year franchise QB is well-positioned to dominate.
RB Devonta Freeman ($8,000) -- The 3-3 Falcons won't lose this game. They'll make adjustments after last week's demoralizing performance. Freeman will score a couple times.
RB Mark Ingram ($7,200) -- As rock-solid an option out there because of volume and one-yard-score potential. His active role through the air separates him from comparably priced RBs like Jordan Howard who rely almost entirely on their ground game.
WR A.J. Green ($8,500) -- I've already pushed Andy Dalton on my podcast; Green will be the biggest beneficiary of a comfortable home win against the Colts.
WR Julio Jones ($8,700) -- Again, I believe Atlanta will play to their strengths this week, exploiting an overachieving Jets defense. Last week I inserted Julio into my 50-50 lineup despite not scoring all season. What happened? He scored. Past production is meaningless when you're talking about elite talents. Julio will score again.
WR Brandon LaFell ($4,600) -- LaFell is about as cheap a receiver as you'll find this week. Despite rookie John Ross's expected involvement, I like LaFell exceeding expectations at worst (six catches for 50+ yards), and far exceeding expectations (six catches for 50+ yards and a score) at best.
TE Hunter Henry ($5,500) -- I've kept going back and forth with this slot. But only two TEs have surpassed 8.5 Fan Duel points in each of the past five weeks: Zach Ertz and Henry. Since I don't want to stack Philly's passing game (for reasons hinted it earlier), Henry is my cheaper, comparably-high-floor option.
K Jake Elliott ($4,800) -- My one hedge, but this approach was successful two or three weeks again when I installed Eli Manning and Aldrick Rosas. When you're expecting a team to post buckets of points, stacking a QB with a kicker increases the odds that if one falters, the other will shine. Wentz could throw for three scores in a 35-10 win, leaving Elliott with a modest five points. But who cares since Wentz dominated? Similarly, the Niners could keep Philly out of the end zone for much of the day. But that opens the door for Elliott to score 14+ points on several field goal tries.
DST Bengals ($4,800) -- A last-minute switch (literally, as I was writing this) from the same-priced Saints. The Bears have won two straight behind the arm of Mitch Trubisky. Well, not exactly. Trubisky completed 12 passes in those two wins. New Orleans is yielding 4.9 YPC on the ground, and the risk here is that Chicago successfully controls the clock with long, run-focused drives. There's not a lot of room for sacks or turnovers in that scenario. But Cincinnati is much better against the run, is coming off a tough road loss, and is in a must-win situation against a worse run game than Chicago's and a similarly minimally experienced QB. The Bengals should post 12+ points and finish in the top 8.
Good luck this week.
Since starting the "Ideal DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week" feature in Week 2, I've hit on 83%. Last week marked three consecutive dominant lineups--as in, the kind of lineups that also could have won some bucks in higher-stakes DFS tournaments (where you often have to finish in the top 15%).
But I'm only as good as my last call, so let's see if I can keep this up. As with past weeks, my picks have gone through a bunch of iterations since my first crack at it on Friday. Duke Johnson, Alvin Kamara, James White, Kelvin Benjamin, Austin Hooper, Tyler Kroft, and Zach Ertz have made their way in and out of lineup. My focus is on high-floor, high-upside guys. It takes two or three breakout performers to more than compensate for a couple of duds.
QB Carson Wentz ($7,900) -- 11 TDs in his last three games, and facing an anemic 49ers D at home. What could go wrong? Of course, plenty could go wrong, including LeGarrette Blount scoring three times and Wentz game-managing the rest of the way. But realistically, the second-year franchise QB is well-positioned to dominate.
RB Devonta Freeman ($8,000) -- The 3-3 Falcons won't lose this game. They'll make adjustments after last week's demoralizing performance. Freeman will score a couple times.
RB Mark Ingram ($7,200) -- As rock-solid an option out there because of volume and one-yard-score potential. His active role through the air separates him from comparably priced RBs like Jordan Howard who rely almost entirely on their ground game.
WR A.J. Green ($8,500) -- I've already pushed Andy Dalton on my podcast; Green will be the biggest beneficiary of a comfortable home win against the Colts.
WR Julio Jones ($8,700) -- Again, I believe Atlanta will play to their strengths this week, exploiting an overachieving Jets defense. Last week I inserted Julio into my 50-50 lineup despite not scoring all season. What happened? He scored. Past production is meaningless when you're talking about elite talents. Julio will score again.
WR Brandon LaFell ($4,600) -- LaFell is about as cheap a receiver as you'll find this week. Despite rookie John Ross's expected involvement, I like LaFell exceeding expectations at worst (six catches for 50+ yards), and far exceeding expectations (six catches for 50+ yards and a score) at best.
TE Hunter Henry ($5,500) -- I've kept going back and forth with this slot. But only two TEs have surpassed 8.5 Fan Duel points in each of the past five weeks: Zach Ertz and Henry. Since I don't want to stack Philly's passing game (for reasons hinted it earlier), Henry is my cheaper, comparably-high-floor option.
K Jake Elliott ($4,800) -- My one hedge, but this approach was successful two or three weeks again when I installed Eli Manning and Aldrick Rosas. When you're expecting a team to post buckets of points, stacking a QB with a kicker increases the odds that if one falters, the other will shine. Wentz could throw for three scores in a 35-10 win, leaving Elliott with a modest five points. But who cares since Wentz dominated? Similarly, the Niners could keep Philly out of the end zone for much of the day. But that opens the door for Elliott to score 14+ points on several field goal tries.
DST Bengals ($4,800) -- A last-minute switch (literally, as I was writing this) from the same-priced Saints. The Bears have won two straight behind the arm of Mitch Trubisky. Well, not exactly. Trubisky completed 12 passes in those two wins. New Orleans is yielding 4.9 YPC on the ground, and the risk here is that Chicago successfully controls the clock with long, run-focused drives. There's not a lot of room for sacks or turnovers in that scenario. But Cincinnati is much better against the run, is coming off a tough road loss, and is in a must-win situation against a worse run game than Chicago's and a similarly minimally experienced QB. The Bengals should post 12+ points and finish in the top 8.
Good luck this week.