Apparently the NFL's two most exciting offenses are the Rams and 49ers. When they play each other.
Both teams scored in each quarter en route to 80 combined points. Consider that the 11th highest scoring NFL regular season game featured 91 points, and that if the Niners had converted that late two-point conversion, overtime likely could have pushed the scoring to 91, as well (with a field goal and then a TD).
What caused this outburst? Too many factors to recount here. But in pouring through the stats, one angle jumps out at me: third down conversions. The Niners were 9-of-18 (50%), not to mention 2-of-3 on fourth down. The Rams were 8-of-12 (67%). No NFL team last exceeded exceeded 49%, and the average efficiency was 38%. In fact, since 2009, only one team (the 2011 Saints) has cleared 50% for the season.
Based on historic averages, the 49ers extended drives two more times than the average team does, while the Rams extended their drives five more times than usual. That's fairly remarkable, and obviously well earned. But both teams will return to the mean as the season progresses.
As highlighted yesterday, the Rams won't face this easy a defense again until Week 17--against these same 49ers. Their other remaining games are @ Dallas, Seattle, @ Jacksonville, Arizona, @ Giants, Houston, @ Minnesota, New Orleans, @ Arizona, Philadelphia, @ Seattle, @ Tennessee. I could one, maybe two games where they can realistically hope to put up 21+ points.
If you have Todd Gurley, listen closely--or ignore me entirely, which many people do with great success. And this is probably the last time I'll say this: My knock on the Rams' franchise running back is that he's incredibly inefficient on the ground. Last year's 3.2 YPC might have been an outlier. But he's only at 3.8 YPC this year, with two of three games coming against puff defenses. His final run last night, which sealed the win, was for 20 yards. Remove that, and he finishes the game with 3.4 YPC.
YPC isn't everything. Gurley is clearly a scoring threat every game. But the opposing defenses are about to get significantly tougher. Gurley's YPC won't magically improve without dramatic personnel or game-plan changes, which aren't likely. So you're looking at a regression in yards and TD opportunities.
This is not the time to sit back and wait for this conceivable scenario to play out. This it the moment to trade Gurley for top dollar. You can get almost anything for him. So do it. Remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future performance, and that Gurley has thrived due to circumstances that won't be replicated with nearly the same frequency the rest of the season.
If I'm wrong on this--if Gurley is an RB1 the rest of the season--all of you come down on me hard in December. But this is where value meets reality. And I'll stake my reputation on the fact that this is the moment to cash in.
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This week's Free Agent Friday kicks off with J.J Nelson (37% rostered in ESPN leagues), but not for obvious reasons. Nelson is fantasy's third highest scoring wideout. Of course he needs to be added--and them immediately traded. If you can land an RB3 with upside like Tevin Coleman, or like Derrick Henry a week ago (though if you can trade Nelson straight-up for Henry today, wow). J.J. has been promoted on this site since 2015. But with Larry Fitzgerald healthy, John Brown likely to return at some point, and Carson Palmer fading, Nelson's realistic ceiling is as a WR3. So go get him if you can, and then put his value to use.
The same goes for Chris Thompson, who's still available in 21% of leagues. When someone averaging 6.5 touches per game is the fourth highest fantasy scoring RB, something's gotta change: he'll either get more touches or regress. It will be the latter, as he's enjoyed double-digit touches in only 5 of 37 NFL games, and that won't change unless Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine get hurt. With Kelley day-to-day and Perine now a likely part of the game plan going forward, Thompson is one of the riskiest top 30 RBs to start on a weekly basis.
Oh, and Derrick Henry is also available in 21% of leagues. C'mon, people. This is insane. I'm not saying Henry's an RB1; a healthy Murray won't be relegated to the sidelines. But go check and see if Henry's sitting on waivers in your league(s), and if so, drop a WR4 and end this madness.
Is this the season Tyler Lockett (33% rostered) fulfills his potential? Possessing WR2/3 upside if everything clicks (i.e. he's healthy and the offense finds itself), Lockett is worth a pickup if you can take the chance on this boom-bust receiver.
I don't care how about Blake Bortles has looked. Allen Hurns should be rostered in more than 9% of leagues. He and Marqise Lee (only 30% rostered, which is similarly bizarre) will continue to be Jacksonville's top two receivers for the foreseeable future. Playing the odds, at least one of them will be fantasy relevant every week.
Chris Carson. Available in 78% of ESPN leagues. Nothing else needs to be said here.
Finally, several of you have asked about Eric Ebron. All summer I hyped him as one of three undervalued TEs to grab at the end of your draft (Austin Hooper and Coby Fleener were the others). Ebron is a must-start when healthy, persiod, and he's rostered in only 35% of leagues.
Both teams scored in each quarter en route to 80 combined points. Consider that the 11th highest scoring NFL regular season game featured 91 points, and that if the Niners had converted that late two-point conversion, overtime likely could have pushed the scoring to 91, as well (with a field goal and then a TD).
What caused this outburst? Too many factors to recount here. But in pouring through the stats, one angle jumps out at me: third down conversions. The Niners were 9-of-18 (50%), not to mention 2-of-3 on fourth down. The Rams were 8-of-12 (67%). No NFL team last exceeded exceeded 49%, and the average efficiency was 38%. In fact, since 2009, only one team (the 2011 Saints) has cleared 50% for the season.
Based on historic averages, the 49ers extended drives two more times than the average team does, while the Rams extended their drives five more times than usual. That's fairly remarkable, and obviously well earned. But both teams will return to the mean as the season progresses.
As highlighted yesterday, the Rams won't face this easy a defense again until Week 17--against these same 49ers. Their other remaining games are @ Dallas, Seattle, @ Jacksonville, Arizona, @ Giants, Houston, @ Minnesota, New Orleans, @ Arizona, Philadelphia, @ Seattle, @ Tennessee. I could one, maybe two games where they can realistically hope to put up 21+ points.
If you have Todd Gurley, listen closely--or ignore me entirely, which many people do with great success. And this is probably the last time I'll say this: My knock on the Rams' franchise running back is that he's incredibly inefficient on the ground. Last year's 3.2 YPC might have been an outlier. But he's only at 3.8 YPC this year, with two of three games coming against puff defenses. His final run last night, which sealed the win, was for 20 yards. Remove that, and he finishes the game with 3.4 YPC.
YPC isn't everything. Gurley is clearly a scoring threat every game. But the opposing defenses are about to get significantly tougher. Gurley's YPC won't magically improve without dramatic personnel or game-plan changes, which aren't likely. So you're looking at a regression in yards and TD opportunities.
This is not the time to sit back and wait for this conceivable scenario to play out. This it the moment to trade Gurley for top dollar. You can get almost anything for him. So do it. Remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future performance, and that Gurley has thrived due to circumstances that won't be replicated with nearly the same frequency the rest of the season.
If I'm wrong on this--if Gurley is an RB1 the rest of the season--all of you come down on me hard in December. But this is where value meets reality. And I'll stake my reputation on the fact that this is the moment to cash in.
---
This week's Free Agent Friday kicks off with J.J Nelson (37% rostered in ESPN leagues), but not for obvious reasons. Nelson is fantasy's third highest scoring wideout. Of course he needs to be added--and them immediately traded. If you can land an RB3 with upside like Tevin Coleman, or like Derrick Henry a week ago (though if you can trade Nelson straight-up for Henry today, wow). J.J. has been promoted on this site since 2015. But with Larry Fitzgerald healthy, John Brown likely to return at some point, and Carson Palmer fading, Nelson's realistic ceiling is as a WR3. So go get him if you can, and then put his value to use.
The same goes for Chris Thompson, who's still available in 21% of leagues. When someone averaging 6.5 touches per game is the fourth highest fantasy scoring RB, something's gotta change: he'll either get more touches or regress. It will be the latter, as he's enjoyed double-digit touches in only 5 of 37 NFL games, and that won't change unless Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine get hurt. With Kelley day-to-day and Perine now a likely part of the game plan going forward, Thompson is one of the riskiest top 30 RBs to start on a weekly basis.
Oh, and Derrick Henry is also available in 21% of leagues. C'mon, people. This is insane. I'm not saying Henry's an RB1; a healthy Murray won't be relegated to the sidelines. But go check and see if Henry's sitting on waivers in your league(s), and if so, drop a WR4 and end this madness.
Is this the season Tyler Lockett (33% rostered) fulfills his potential? Possessing WR2/3 upside if everything clicks (i.e. he's healthy and the offense finds itself), Lockett is worth a pickup if you can take the chance on this boom-bust receiver.
I don't care how about Blake Bortles has looked. Allen Hurns should be rostered in more than 9% of leagues. He and Marqise Lee (only 30% rostered, which is similarly bizarre) will continue to be Jacksonville's top two receivers for the foreseeable future. Playing the odds, at least one of them will be fantasy relevant every week.
Chris Carson. Available in 78% of ESPN leagues. Nothing else needs to be said here.
Finally, several of you have asked about Eric Ebron. All summer I hyped him as one of three undervalued TEs to grab at the end of your draft (Austin Hooper and Coby Fleener were the others). Ebron is a must-start when healthy, persiod, and he's rostered in only 35% of leagues.