Week 2 Monday Night Football Thoughts, and Tuesday Trader: Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas, Russell Wilson, Matt Forte, J.J. Nelson, and Coby Fleener
Last night was yet another example of a terrible offensive line running into a capable defense--and an offense that's still trying to make sense of this reality. The Giants are not this bad, but they certainly looked the part. Unable to get a snap off at 4th and goal at the Lions' 1 was the tip of the iceberg. Expect dramatic adjustments this week heading into Philly. Unfortunately, the Giants face only one sub-par D between now and November. So it could be more than a month before we see what this team can be, and for many of us, that's too long to wait.
For the Lions, Matthew Stafford didn't need to do much, thanks to Detroit's strong D and Ameer Abdullah's efficient running. And while Theo Riddick's 12 touches were a nice surprise, only three game through the air--where he's most effective--meaning he earned only 6.7 points in PPR. Don't give up on Riddick. Volume will translate into fantasy success eventually. And finally, Eric Ebron was Stafford's primary receiver, catching all five of his targets for 42 yards and a score. As I've written since June or July, the under-drafted Ebron is a clear-cut TE1 whenever healthy.
---
When we sell high and buy low, we generally win. In today's edition of the Tuesday Trader, let's make sense of the hundreds of fantasy players swirling through our heads, picking out a few to invest in before they get hot, and a few to part ways with before their value plummets.
At the head of the buy-low pack is Brandin Cooks. If you have him, don't sweat his slow start. If you don't have him, get him. Quickly. Preferably for no better than top 20-25 WR value. Your pitch to a trade partner: "Brady is spreading the wealth. Cooks will have good games and bad games." The reality: The 23-year-old is coming off back-to-back WR1 seasons but hasn't yet found his groove in New England. To think the Pats will under-utilize him is short-sighted. Cooks will dominate plenty of games, and his floor is as high as any receiver outside A. Brown and Julio.
Former Cooks teammate Michael Thomas also has been modestly good at best. Your pitch: "Brees hasn't looked the same, and Willie Snead's return will further muddy the waters." The reality: Thomas has faced the Vikings and Patriots to start the year. After next week's contest in Carolina, things will open up for the second-year phenom and the rest of the Saints. He'll be fine.
Is it time to panic about Russell Wilson? It certainly was last year when Wilson stumbled through his first seven games, with only one game exceeding 13 fantasy points. The offensive line was a primary culprit. The team adjusted. Wilson went on to finish among the top 10 fantasy QBs. Your pitch: "Wilson is droppable in most leagues. This o-line will limit him all season." The reality: As FF4W commenter Robbie Lange aptly pointed out yesterday, in recent years Wilson has always better in the second half of the season. He, Peter Carroll, and Carroll's coaching staff deserve credit for their mid-season adjustments. It can and will happen again.
Matt Forte is an easy sell-high guy. Your pitch: "He's an RB3 headed toward RB2 production--the team's clear lead back who's on pace for 56 receptions and an impressive 4.6 YPC." The reality: Forte is fast-approaching 32 years old and is not in the Jets' long-term plans. He's a huge risk of being out of the fantasy picture by December.
J.J. Nelson has always been a "could be" kind of receiver. If he only earned enough targets, he could do some damage. Well, two weeks into the season, he's one of fantasy's top receivers. Think it'll last? I'll rephrase that: Think he'll be even a WR2 the rest of the way? He won't. Your pitch: "John Brown's out indefinitely, Larry Fitzgerald's showing his age, and the backfield is a mess. Nelson is Arizona's best offensive weapon." The reality: Nelson is a great story and a terrific talent. But let's not kid ourselves. Brown *should* return in the coming weeks, even though his long-term prospects are spotty. Jaron Brown picked up 73 yards on a whopping 11 targets and isn't going anywhere. And Fitz's mere six Week 2 targets were more about him being bottled up by the defense. Nelson is a fantastic WR3+. But he's not an every-week starter.
While I hyped Coby Fleener plenty this preseason, there's always a time to sell. With Willie Snead returning soon, Fleener's adequate-but-pedestrian offensive role should tick downward. Thus far he's been a TD-dependent fantasy asset. While I continue to like Fleener as a top 10 TE, he's expendable in most leagues--especially if you can trade him for top 5-7 TE value.
---
Finally, some of you might have noticed a new image representing this page. FF4W reader Josh Murphy (www.cartattz.com) volunteered to develop a logo a couple weeks ago. Big thanks to Josh for lending his talents to the site.
For the Lions, Matthew Stafford didn't need to do much, thanks to Detroit's strong D and Ameer Abdullah's efficient running. And while Theo Riddick's 12 touches were a nice surprise, only three game through the air--where he's most effective--meaning he earned only 6.7 points in PPR. Don't give up on Riddick. Volume will translate into fantasy success eventually. And finally, Eric Ebron was Stafford's primary receiver, catching all five of his targets for 42 yards and a score. As I've written since June or July, the under-drafted Ebron is a clear-cut TE1 whenever healthy.
---
When we sell high and buy low, we generally win. In today's edition of the Tuesday Trader, let's make sense of the hundreds of fantasy players swirling through our heads, picking out a few to invest in before they get hot, and a few to part ways with before their value plummets.
At the head of the buy-low pack is Brandin Cooks. If you have him, don't sweat his slow start. If you don't have him, get him. Quickly. Preferably for no better than top 20-25 WR value. Your pitch to a trade partner: "Brady is spreading the wealth. Cooks will have good games and bad games." The reality: The 23-year-old is coming off back-to-back WR1 seasons but hasn't yet found his groove in New England. To think the Pats will under-utilize him is short-sighted. Cooks will dominate plenty of games, and his floor is as high as any receiver outside A. Brown and Julio.
Former Cooks teammate Michael Thomas also has been modestly good at best. Your pitch: "Brees hasn't looked the same, and Willie Snead's return will further muddy the waters." The reality: Thomas has faced the Vikings and Patriots to start the year. After next week's contest in Carolina, things will open up for the second-year phenom and the rest of the Saints. He'll be fine.
Is it time to panic about Russell Wilson? It certainly was last year when Wilson stumbled through his first seven games, with only one game exceeding 13 fantasy points. The offensive line was a primary culprit. The team adjusted. Wilson went on to finish among the top 10 fantasy QBs. Your pitch: "Wilson is droppable in most leagues. This o-line will limit him all season." The reality: As FF4W commenter Robbie Lange aptly pointed out yesterday, in recent years Wilson has always better in the second half of the season. He, Peter Carroll, and Carroll's coaching staff deserve credit for their mid-season adjustments. It can and will happen again.
Matt Forte is an easy sell-high guy. Your pitch: "He's an RB3 headed toward RB2 production--the team's clear lead back who's on pace for 56 receptions and an impressive 4.6 YPC." The reality: Forte is fast-approaching 32 years old and is not in the Jets' long-term plans. He's a huge risk of being out of the fantasy picture by December.
J.J. Nelson has always been a "could be" kind of receiver. If he only earned enough targets, he could do some damage. Well, two weeks into the season, he's one of fantasy's top receivers. Think it'll last? I'll rephrase that: Think he'll be even a WR2 the rest of the way? He won't. Your pitch: "John Brown's out indefinitely, Larry Fitzgerald's showing his age, and the backfield is a mess. Nelson is Arizona's best offensive weapon." The reality: Nelson is a great story and a terrific talent. But let's not kid ourselves. Brown *should* return in the coming weeks, even though his long-term prospects are spotty. Jaron Brown picked up 73 yards on a whopping 11 targets and isn't going anywhere. And Fitz's mere six Week 2 targets were more about him being bottled up by the defense. Nelson is a fantastic WR3+. But he's not an every-week starter.
While I hyped Coby Fleener plenty this preseason, there's always a time to sell. With Willie Snead returning soon, Fleener's adequate-but-pedestrian offensive role should tick downward. Thus far he's been a TD-dependent fantasy asset. While I continue to like Fleener as a top 10 TE, he's expendable in most leagues--especially if you can trade him for top 5-7 TE value.
---
Finally, some of you might have noticed a new image representing this page. FF4W reader Josh Murphy (www.cartattz.com) volunteered to develop a logo a couple weeks ago. Big thanks to Josh for lending his talents to the site.