Week 1 Thursday Night Football Preview; Contrarian Prediction #'s 17-20: Eli Manning, Leonard Fournette, Tarik Cohen, and Titans DST
After 11-12 weeks of research, speculation, predictions, and push-back, we're all ready for tonight's kickoff to the fantasy football season. Or so we hope.
This preseason is wrapping up with a likely lingering suspension to a top 3 RB; a postponed Week 1 game; and the usual question marks attached to scores of rookies, aging veterans, and other players who could pivot in either the "boom" or "bust" direction.
In the coming weeks and months, one thing is almost guaranteed: the fantasy world will be shocked to learn which fantasy stalwarts either get hurt or disappoint on the field, as well as which players seemingly come out of nowhere to dominate. It happens every season, like a ticking clock (does anyone have ticking clocks anymore?). The key for each of us is to spot the impending trend before it's normalized--before we lose the ability to jettison an overrated player and acquire an underrated one.
A quick final notice on FF4W's third annual survivor pool. A record 116 of you have signed up for this free contest, forcing me to create a second one (Yahoo allows only 100 competitors per league). For those who don't know what survivor pools are, you pick one team each week to win. If they lose, you're done, and you can't pick the same team twice. Sign up before tonight's Chiefs-Patriots kickoff at:
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival/register/joinprivategroup?gid=15539&password=vernondavis
For tonight, I'm anticipating a 20+ point Patriots victory. The buzz surrounding Kareem Hunt won't be substantiated until later this month. I think New England will stack the box and force Alex Smith to throw. The Pats are built to be a 19-0 team, having improved since their Super Bowl win. Barring serious injuries, any loss this season will be an upset.
Finally, wrapping up my contrarian predictions, here are four to more than replace the three that no longer apply because of injuries/suspensions to Julian Edelman, Spencer Ware, and Willie Snead:
Contrarian Prediction #17: Eli Manning (QB-16 ADP) will be a top 11 QB. If you're a regular FF4W reader, you know I was very down on Eli last summer when most of the fantasy universe fell in love with his top 10 potential. This year I'm once again on the opposite side of conventional thought, except I'm the one pushing Eli. Consider that this offseason they added a perennial top 10 wideout to a receiving corps that includes Odell Beckham, Jr. and Sterling Shepard. Eli's never thrown to this much talent. Ever. And while Brandon Marshall surely will regress statistically compared to his earlier top-dog days, he remains a difference maker in an offense that will be forced to lean on the pass. Meanwhile, Shane Vereen is back after missing 11 games. He caught 59 passes in 2015 and is a near lock for 50 catches this year--further padding Eli's stats. What's more, the Giants had the second toughest schedule last year based on opponents' record. According to ESPN, this year they have the eighth easiest schedule. 98% of Fantasy Pros' 131 experts rank Eli outside the top 11, while 79% place him 16th or worse. 11 notables, including ESPN's Field Yates, rank him in the 20s. Wow. Eli is that streaming QB you won't want to give up.
Contrarian Prediction #18: Leonard Fournette (RB-11 ADP Standard/PPR) will not be a top 18/20 RB. I haven't been as high as most people on 2017's #4 overall pick. My hunch has been that T.Y. Yeldon and/or Chris Ivory will continue to play a complementary role for much of the season, in part due to Fournette's lack of pass-game chops. Meanwhile Blake Bortles' struggles would embolden defenses to game-plan largely against Fournette. But it's his foot injury--on top of similar injuries at LSU--that make his RB-11 ADP outrageously high. 95% of the 100+ industry experts compiled by Fantasy Pros place him in the top 18 in Standard, with 93% tagging him as top 20 in PPR. No thanks. Although Fournette is primed for a terrific NFL career, temper expectations this season.
Contrarian Prediction #19: Tarik Cohen will (RB-75/74 ADP) will be a top 50 RB. Capable on the ground and in the air, the rookie Cohen is in a prime spot, playing alongside low-ceiling backup Benny Cunningham and behind last season's heavily worked Jordan Howard. Cameron Meredith's season-ending injury gives Chicago one less playmaker on a team desperate for playmakers. I can see Cohen stepping into an 8-10 touch role by October even if Howard remains healthy. With 98% of experts ranking him outside the top 50--and most outside the top 70--Cohen offers RB4 value in deep leagues and RB2 upside if Howard gets hurt.
Contrarian Prediction #20: Tennessee Titans (DST-21 ADP) will be a top 16 DST. Tennessee owned the 26th best DST last year. No expert places this year's unit higher than 18th. They'll be better than that, and are probably a 50/50 bet to crack the top 10. Talk about a bargain. If this sounds like crazy talk, consider last year's Titans faced not only a powerhouse Colts offense (411 points in 2016), but also the Chargers and Packers. According to CBS Sports' John Breech, this year's club has the second easiest schedule, and that doesn't factor the major QB problems in Indy and Jacksonville, giving Tennessee potentially four easier games than those 2016 matchups garnered. Also keep in mind that this offseason the Titans replaced their talent-depleted cornerbacks with first rounder Adoree' Jackson and former New England standout Logan Ryan, while their stout run D remains largely intact. At worst, this DST will be a 7-8 game streaming option. At best, with a schedule that winds down with the 49ers, Rams, and Jaguars, the Titans will help some of you win a fantasy title.
Good luck to everyone this season. We won't all be winners. But we can damn well try.
This preseason is wrapping up with a likely lingering suspension to a top 3 RB; a postponed Week 1 game; and the usual question marks attached to scores of rookies, aging veterans, and other players who could pivot in either the "boom" or "bust" direction.
In the coming weeks and months, one thing is almost guaranteed: the fantasy world will be shocked to learn which fantasy stalwarts either get hurt or disappoint on the field, as well as which players seemingly come out of nowhere to dominate. It happens every season, like a ticking clock (does anyone have ticking clocks anymore?). The key for each of us is to spot the impending trend before it's normalized--before we lose the ability to jettison an overrated player and acquire an underrated one.
A quick final notice on FF4W's third annual survivor pool. A record 116 of you have signed up for this free contest, forcing me to create a second one (Yahoo allows only 100 competitors per league). For those who don't know what survivor pools are, you pick one team each week to win. If they lose, you're done, and you can't pick the same team twice. Sign up before tonight's Chiefs-Patriots kickoff at:
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival/register/joinprivategroup?gid=15539&password=vernondavis
For tonight, I'm anticipating a 20+ point Patriots victory. The buzz surrounding Kareem Hunt won't be substantiated until later this month. I think New England will stack the box and force Alex Smith to throw. The Pats are built to be a 19-0 team, having improved since their Super Bowl win. Barring serious injuries, any loss this season will be an upset.
Finally, wrapping up my contrarian predictions, here are four to more than replace the three that no longer apply because of injuries/suspensions to Julian Edelman, Spencer Ware, and Willie Snead:
Contrarian Prediction #17: Eli Manning (QB-16 ADP) will be a top 11 QB. If you're a regular FF4W reader, you know I was very down on Eli last summer when most of the fantasy universe fell in love with his top 10 potential. This year I'm once again on the opposite side of conventional thought, except I'm the one pushing Eli. Consider that this offseason they added a perennial top 10 wideout to a receiving corps that includes Odell Beckham, Jr. and Sterling Shepard. Eli's never thrown to this much talent. Ever. And while Brandon Marshall surely will regress statistically compared to his earlier top-dog days, he remains a difference maker in an offense that will be forced to lean on the pass. Meanwhile, Shane Vereen is back after missing 11 games. He caught 59 passes in 2015 and is a near lock for 50 catches this year--further padding Eli's stats. What's more, the Giants had the second toughest schedule last year based on opponents' record. According to ESPN, this year they have the eighth easiest schedule. 98% of Fantasy Pros' 131 experts rank Eli outside the top 11, while 79% place him 16th or worse. 11 notables, including ESPN's Field Yates, rank him in the 20s. Wow. Eli is that streaming QB you won't want to give up.
Contrarian Prediction #18: Leonard Fournette (RB-11 ADP Standard/PPR) will not be a top 18/20 RB. I haven't been as high as most people on 2017's #4 overall pick. My hunch has been that T.Y. Yeldon and/or Chris Ivory will continue to play a complementary role for much of the season, in part due to Fournette's lack of pass-game chops. Meanwhile Blake Bortles' struggles would embolden defenses to game-plan largely against Fournette. But it's his foot injury--on top of similar injuries at LSU--that make his RB-11 ADP outrageously high. 95% of the 100+ industry experts compiled by Fantasy Pros place him in the top 18 in Standard, with 93% tagging him as top 20 in PPR. No thanks. Although Fournette is primed for a terrific NFL career, temper expectations this season.
Contrarian Prediction #19: Tarik Cohen will (RB-75/74 ADP) will be a top 50 RB. Capable on the ground and in the air, the rookie Cohen is in a prime spot, playing alongside low-ceiling backup Benny Cunningham and behind last season's heavily worked Jordan Howard. Cameron Meredith's season-ending injury gives Chicago one less playmaker on a team desperate for playmakers. I can see Cohen stepping into an 8-10 touch role by October even if Howard remains healthy. With 98% of experts ranking him outside the top 50--and most outside the top 70--Cohen offers RB4 value in deep leagues and RB2 upside if Howard gets hurt.
Contrarian Prediction #20: Tennessee Titans (DST-21 ADP) will be a top 16 DST. Tennessee owned the 26th best DST last year. No expert places this year's unit higher than 18th. They'll be better than that, and are probably a 50/50 bet to crack the top 10. Talk about a bargain. If this sounds like crazy talk, consider last year's Titans faced not only a powerhouse Colts offense (411 points in 2016), but also the Chargers and Packers. According to CBS Sports' John Breech, this year's club has the second easiest schedule, and that doesn't factor the major QB problems in Indy and Jacksonville, giving Tennessee potentially four easier games than those 2016 matchups garnered. Also keep in mind that this offseason the Titans replaced their talent-depleted cornerbacks with first rounder Adoree' Jackson and former New England standout Logan Ryan, while their stout run D remains largely intact. At worst, this DST will be a 7-8 game streaming option. At best, with a schedule that winds down with the 49ers, Rams, and Jaguars, the Titans will help some of you win a fantasy title.
Good luck to everyone this season. We won't all be winners. But we can damn well try.