Three things with significant fantasy implications occurred last night.
Kicking things off, the Ezekiel Elliott saga just got weirder, and not that cool kind of weird you might find in a David Lynch film, or that funny-odd kind of weird in a show like "Last Man on Earth." Clarence Hill from the Fort-Worth Star Telegram revealed that Kia Roberts--the NFL's lead investigator in the Zeke case--had recommended no suspension for Dallas's franchise QB. Then later in the evening, the NFL Players Association filed a temporary restraining order aimed at blocking the potential upholding of Zeke's six-game suspension.
The NFL took over a year to investigate the facts and come to a decision. In less than three weeks, the entire case is now in jeopardy. Zeke could actually win this thing. From a legal and NFL perspective, an overturning of this suspension would be an absolute PR (and potentially legal) nightmare for the NFL. From a fantasy perspective, this could mean some of you grabbed a top 3 RB in the third round. It's too soon to know what will happen, of course. But we should have closure in the next two to three days.
Shifting to the AFC, the Andrew Luck health saga continues, and isn't getting better. Colts owner Jim Irsay came right out and said Luck' unlikely to play Week 1. Reports have ranged from the franchise QB returning for the opening for the opening game, to being placed on the reserve/PUP list and missing the first six. The continued uncertainty a week before the season begins has led me to drop T.Y. Hilton even further on my draft board (just outside the top 20 receivers), while the already barely draftable Jack Doyle moves into the "don't draft" category, beyond the top 16. Luck, meanwhile, moves to #15 on the QB list, behind Philip Rivers. Best case scenario, Luck returns to full health and dominates. But we need to consider the possibility that whatever the Colts claim, Luck might not be 100% when he first takes the field. At the very least, he'll need to shake off a lot of rust in the first few games back.
A couple days ago I wrote about the fantasy implications of the Jets tanking. Today I'll take that a step further. ESPN New York suggested yesterday that Matt Forte is on the Jets' roster bubble. While that's not "news" and shouldn't be overstated, it's a reminder that Forte's $4 million guaranteed salary won't be easy to pawn off onto other teams. The Jets don't need the nearly retired veteran, so if they're going for 0-16, better to give a potential future contributor like Elijah McGuire some more looks.
And obviously there's more to this. Overnight Bilal Powell plummeted on my draft rankings, which were just distributed to nearly 300 of you who've subscribed. Why? Let's call this what it is: There's no way the Jets ride Powell throughout the season. It's inconceivable this team puts their future at risk by featuring their best offensive player. To those who doubt this, consider that their starting QB, Josh McCown, played in two series in last night's meaningless final preseason game. It's nearly unheard of for a Week 1 starter to risk injury by playing a week before the start of the season. More inconceivably, he got hurt during the game and then limped back onto the field to keep playing.
Any team that wants to win would have protected its QB. And any team that wants to lose won't start Powell anywhere close to 16 games. The most likely outcome is that Powell's traded before Week 8, and likely to a team that needs him as a change-of-pace back--not as the featured starter.
So I'm doubling down on Powell and his almost universal RB2 standing. He's now outside my top 30 RBs. Some of you will say it's insane. Let's check back in November and see. If there's still time, be a contrarian: avoid him at his current draft position, or trade him at peak value. Make the pitch that Forte might be dumped, and you're willing to give up a guy who's value is actually rising--when in fact it's the peak before the valley.
Kicking things off, the Ezekiel Elliott saga just got weirder, and not that cool kind of weird you might find in a David Lynch film, or that funny-odd kind of weird in a show like "Last Man on Earth." Clarence Hill from the Fort-Worth Star Telegram revealed that Kia Roberts--the NFL's lead investigator in the Zeke case--had recommended no suspension for Dallas's franchise QB. Then later in the evening, the NFL Players Association filed a temporary restraining order aimed at blocking the potential upholding of Zeke's six-game suspension.
The NFL took over a year to investigate the facts and come to a decision. In less than three weeks, the entire case is now in jeopardy. Zeke could actually win this thing. From a legal and NFL perspective, an overturning of this suspension would be an absolute PR (and potentially legal) nightmare for the NFL. From a fantasy perspective, this could mean some of you grabbed a top 3 RB in the third round. It's too soon to know what will happen, of course. But we should have closure in the next two to three days.
Shifting to the AFC, the Andrew Luck health saga continues, and isn't getting better. Colts owner Jim Irsay came right out and said Luck' unlikely to play Week 1. Reports have ranged from the franchise QB returning for the opening for the opening game, to being placed on the reserve/PUP list and missing the first six. The continued uncertainty a week before the season begins has led me to drop T.Y. Hilton even further on my draft board (just outside the top 20 receivers), while the already barely draftable Jack Doyle moves into the "don't draft" category, beyond the top 16. Luck, meanwhile, moves to #15 on the QB list, behind Philip Rivers. Best case scenario, Luck returns to full health and dominates. But we need to consider the possibility that whatever the Colts claim, Luck might not be 100% when he first takes the field. At the very least, he'll need to shake off a lot of rust in the first few games back.
A couple days ago I wrote about the fantasy implications of the Jets tanking. Today I'll take that a step further. ESPN New York suggested yesterday that Matt Forte is on the Jets' roster bubble. While that's not "news" and shouldn't be overstated, it's a reminder that Forte's $4 million guaranteed salary won't be easy to pawn off onto other teams. The Jets don't need the nearly retired veteran, so if they're going for 0-16, better to give a potential future contributor like Elijah McGuire some more looks.
And obviously there's more to this. Overnight Bilal Powell plummeted on my draft rankings, which were just distributed to nearly 300 of you who've subscribed. Why? Let's call this what it is: There's no way the Jets ride Powell throughout the season. It's inconceivable this team puts their future at risk by featuring their best offensive player. To those who doubt this, consider that their starting QB, Josh McCown, played in two series in last night's meaningless final preseason game. It's nearly unheard of for a Week 1 starter to risk injury by playing a week before the start of the season. More inconceivably, he got hurt during the game and then limped back onto the field to keep playing.
Any team that wants to win would have protected its QB. And any team that wants to lose won't start Powell anywhere close to 16 games. The most likely outcome is that Powell's traded before Week 8, and likely to a team that needs him as a change-of-pace back--not as the featured starter.
So I'm doubling down on Powell and his almost universal RB2 standing. He's now outside my top 30 RBs. Some of you will say it's insane. Let's check back in November and see. If there's still time, be a contrarian: avoid him at his current draft position, or trade him at peak value. Make the pitch that Forte might be dumped, and you're willing to give up a guy who's value is actually rising--when in fact it's the peak before the valley.