What's more important: having a great draft or being a great in-season manager? The latter, and it's not even close.
A draft is a series of decisions based on information known in a very narrow window of time. And since NFL news doesn't generally hit during a draft, what you know going into it is usually what you know coming out of it.
In-season management covers all of the actions we take based on thousands and thousands and thousands of player value shifts. Savvy managers know how to convert a worthless August roster into a title contender.
(Note: The main exception to this rule is if you're competing in a league where trades aren't allowed and nearly 300 players come off the board on draft day, leaving almost no one of relevance remaining on waivers. And yes, sadly, that would be my ill-chosen league.)
(Second Note: But actually, it's still possible to recover in such a league. More on that below.)
According to the final pre-Week 1 average draft positions based on Fantasy Pros' compilation of major online league sites like ESPN, the following were, on average, the top 14 players taken in PPR leagues:
(1) David Johnson
(2) Le'Veon Bell
(3) Antonio Brown
(4) Julio Jones
(5) Odell Beckham, Jr.
(6) LeSean McCoy
(7) Mike Evans
(8) A.J. Green
(9) Devonta Freeman
(10) Melvin Gordon
(11) Jordy Nelson
(12) Michael Thomas
(13) Jordan Howard
(14) DeMarco Murray
Suppose, for whatever reason, you were given every other pick in the first round of your 14-team league. After throwing up in excitement, conceivably you could have ended up with DJ, Bell, OBJ, Green, Thomas, Howard, and Murray. You then would have bragged to friends and family, to your boss and co-workers, to the Twitter-sphere and beyond, "My team is AWESOME." And you would have taken a much-deserved break from fantasy because, really, you got this. . . .
For a variety of reasons, most first rounders are underperforming--many of them dramatically (at least those who aren't sidelined with moderate-to-severe injuries). This is not some wacky 2017 exception. This is what happens, to varying degrees, every season. We generally can't anticipate it. But we can always do something about it.
Take my league, where I'm still trying to patch together a strong RB corps after losing DJ Week 1. It might take a few weeks, but it'll happen. Despite nearly 300 players coming off the board on draft day, before Week 1 even got underway, one opponent was able to snag Buck Allen for $11 (out of a $100 FAAB cap), while another grabbed Tarik Cohen for $8. When Seattle appeared to be a four-man backfield on September 6, another opponent lifted Chris Carson for $3 (I bid the same but lost out in the tiebreaker).
Many of us have guessed wrong--at least so far. I made a series of dollar bids on guys like Kerwynn Williams, who hasn't and likely will never be starter material, as well as Orleans Darkwa and Alfred Morris. More largely unrostered players will break through eventually. They just need to be in the right place (on our team) at the right time (when they're about to bust out).
More often than not, drafts are won after the draft. Just like titles. I'm not saying drafts are irrelevant; some people take the team they started with and ride them straight through the playoffs. But most of the time, moderate-to-dramatic in-season adjustments are the best way to take home the prize. And it's why we can't take a fantasy vacation day until the season's over.
A draft is a series of decisions based on information known in a very narrow window of time. And since NFL news doesn't generally hit during a draft, what you know going into it is usually what you know coming out of it.
In-season management covers all of the actions we take based on thousands and thousands and thousands of player value shifts. Savvy managers know how to convert a worthless August roster into a title contender.
(Note: The main exception to this rule is if you're competing in a league where trades aren't allowed and nearly 300 players come off the board on draft day, leaving almost no one of relevance remaining on waivers. And yes, sadly, that would be my ill-chosen league.)
(Second Note: But actually, it's still possible to recover in such a league. More on that below.)
According to the final pre-Week 1 average draft positions based on Fantasy Pros' compilation of major online league sites like ESPN, the following were, on average, the top 14 players taken in PPR leagues:
(1) David Johnson
(2) Le'Veon Bell
(3) Antonio Brown
(4) Julio Jones
(5) Odell Beckham, Jr.
(6) LeSean McCoy
(7) Mike Evans
(8) A.J. Green
(9) Devonta Freeman
(10) Melvin Gordon
(11) Jordy Nelson
(12) Michael Thomas
(13) Jordan Howard
(14) DeMarco Murray
Suppose, for whatever reason, you were given every other pick in the first round of your 14-team league. After throwing up in excitement, conceivably you could have ended up with DJ, Bell, OBJ, Green, Thomas, Howard, and Murray. You then would have bragged to friends and family, to your boss and co-workers, to the Twitter-sphere and beyond, "My team is AWESOME." And you would have taken a much-deserved break from fantasy because, really, you got this. . . .
For a variety of reasons, most first rounders are underperforming--many of them dramatically (at least those who aren't sidelined with moderate-to-severe injuries). This is not some wacky 2017 exception. This is what happens, to varying degrees, every season. We generally can't anticipate it. But we can always do something about it.
Take my league, where I'm still trying to patch together a strong RB corps after losing DJ Week 1. It might take a few weeks, but it'll happen. Despite nearly 300 players coming off the board on draft day, before Week 1 even got underway, one opponent was able to snag Buck Allen for $11 (out of a $100 FAAB cap), while another grabbed Tarik Cohen for $8. When Seattle appeared to be a four-man backfield on September 6, another opponent lifted Chris Carson for $3 (I bid the same but lost out in the tiebreaker).
Many of us have guessed wrong--at least so far. I made a series of dollar bids on guys like Kerwynn Williams, who hasn't and likely will never be starter material, as well as Orleans Darkwa and Alfred Morris. More largely unrostered players will break through eventually. They just need to be in the right place (on our team) at the right time (when they're about to bust out).
More often than not, drafts are won after the draft. Just like titles. I'm not saying drafts are irrelevant; some people take the team they started with and ride them straight through the playoffs. But most of the time, moderate-to-dramatic in-season adjustments are the best way to take home the prize. And it's why we can't take a fantasy vacation day until the season's over.