29 touches per game. That's one of several numbers I'm tracking every week, every season, for every player.
Larry Johnson had the second most touches (457) in NFL history in the 2006 season. That added up to 28.6 per game. More than a dozen players have finished close behind. James Wilder leads the way with 492 (30.8) in the 1984 season.
The same is true for RB carries. Larry Johnson leads the way in this category with 416 (26 per game). I'm always tracking guys averaging 25+ carries, particularly if they're coming off a high-volume season.
As I've written before, most players utilized to this degree fell off the rails the next season, and most of the rest were never the same starting the season after that.
In recent years I've issued dire warnings on this page about impending busts like DeMarco Murray (summer of 2015) and Adrian Peterson (summer of 2016). This year, only one RB is averaging 29+ touches or 25+ carries (more on that in a moment). Five of the six leaders in the touch/carry categories thru Week 2 were not overworked last year, each having missed multiple games. So there's nothing meaningful to share here, which in itself is meaningful: while there's still plenty of time for some teams to run their RBs into the ground, there aren't many warning signs.
That said, we should continue to pay attention to RB usage. This weekend in particular, I'm closely tracking these players:
(1) Adam Gase conveyed yesterday that he has no plans to reduce Jay Ajayi's role. Miami's clear-cut lead back started the 2017 season with 28 carries and two touches vs. the Chargers. One game is not a trend. But Gase's words suggest Ajayi will get all the work he can handle today and potentially going forward. If you have Ajayi, you don't want him on the field again for 94% of the Fins' snaps.
(2) Leonard Fournette is asserting himself as the Jaguars' offensive focal point. For a guy who missed six games last year at LSU with an ankle injury, and for a guy who battled a foot ailment this summer, Fournette's rest-of-season prospects dim a bit each time he dominates touches. As with any player, I'm not saying he's headed toward a season-ending injury. I am saying his risks are greater than those of the average starting running back.
(3) Which running back has played the snaps this season? Ty Montgomery. The versatile back has proven me wrong so far, collecting the second most RB fantasy points in PPR. He's also on pace for an entirely unrealistic 312 touches. Montgomery is not a traditional lead back; he'll never be a bell-cow. His 3.1 YPC is flat-out poor. So his incredible fantasy production runs contrary to his inefficiency on the ground, while his very high usage rate is unsustainable. As a pass-catching back, Montgomery is clearly at his best. But today I'm watching to see whether Jamaal Williams cuts a little more into his carries, muting Montgomery's upside.
---
And here's my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. Almost each guy has a great shot at producing top 10 positional numbers. I'm also expecting the Patriots to comfortably handle the Texans--with Cooks benefitting:
QB Matthew Stafford
RB Kareem Hunt
RB James White
WR Antonio Brown
WR Brandin Cooks
WR Kelvin Benjamin
TE Eric Ebron
K Mason Crosby
DST Patriots
Good luck today.
Larry Johnson had the second most touches (457) in NFL history in the 2006 season. That added up to 28.6 per game. More than a dozen players have finished close behind. James Wilder leads the way with 492 (30.8) in the 1984 season.
The same is true for RB carries. Larry Johnson leads the way in this category with 416 (26 per game). I'm always tracking guys averaging 25+ carries, particularly if they're coming off a high-volume season.
As I've written before, most players utilized to this degree fell off the rails the next season, and most of the rest were never the same starting the season after that.
In recent years I've issued dire warnings on this page about impending busts like DeMarco Murray (summer of 2015) and Adrian Peterson (summer of 2016). This year, only one RB is averaging 29+ touches or 25+ carries (more on that in a moment). Five of the six leaders in the touch/carry categories thru Week 2 were not overworked last year, each having missed multiple games. So there's nothing meaningful to share here, which in itself is meaningful: while there's still plenty of time for some teams to run their RBs into the ground, there aren't many warning signs.
That said, we should continue to pay attention to RB usage. This weekend in particular, I'm closely tracking these players:
(1) Adam Gase conveyed yesterday that he has no plans to reduce Jay Ajayi's role. Miami's clear-cut lead back started the 2017 season with 28 carries and two touches vs. the Chargers. One game is not a trend. But Gase's words suggest Ajayi will get all the work he can handle today and potentially going forward. If you have Ajayi, you don't want him on the field again for 94% of the Fins' snaps.
(2) Leonard Fournette is asserting himself as the Jaguars' offensive focal point. For a guy who missed six games last year at LSU with an ankle injury, and for a guy who battled a foot ailment this summer, Fournette's rest-of-season prospects dim a bit each time he dominates touches. As with any player, I'm not saying he's headed toward a season-ending injury. I am saying his risks are greater than those of the average starting running back.
(3) Which running back has played the snaps this season? Ty Montgomery. The versatile back has proven me wrong so far, collecting the second most RB fantasy points in PPR. He's also on pace for an entirely unrealistic 312 touches. Montgomery is not a traditional lead back; he'll never be a bell-cow. His 3.1 YPC is flat-out poor. So his incredible fantasy production runs contrary to his inefficiency on the ground, while his very high usage rate is unsustainable. As a pass-catching back, Montgomery is clearly at his best. But today I'm watching to see whether Jamaal Williams cuts a little more into his carries, muting Montgomery's upside.
---
And here's my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. Almost each guy has a great shot at producing top 10 positional numbers. I'm also expecting the Patriots to comfortably handle the Texans--with Cooks benefitting:
QB Matthew Stafford
RB Kareem Hunt
RB James White
WR Antonio Brown
WR Brandin Cooks
WR Kelvin Benjamin
TE Eric Ebron
K Mason Crosby
DST Patriots
Good luck today.