The reason so many fantasy managers falter isn't strictly because of bad drafting or bad lineup decisions or bad luck. It's the uphill battle of trying to keep up with such a fast-moving league. Consider yesterday's full plate of games, each one generating enough surprises to make people question much of what they thought they knew. If we react quickly--and smartly--we can make enough sense of it all to make our team better heading into Week 2.
Last season I started writing Monday morning rundowns of each Sunday team's most notable fantasy player, good or bad. Essentially, who had the biggest ripple effect in the fantasy universe? I've got 24 teams to cover. Let's get started:
Jets -- I warned last week to sell high on Bilal Powell and Matt Forte. Granted yesterday was just one game. But this is an historically bad team that will usually play from behind. Powell dropped in my rankings late in the preseason when it became clear the Jets organization had little interest in winning--going so far as to toss an injured Josh McCown back onto the field in a meaningless fourth preseason game. If you kept Powell, there's little to do but to try to sell high (good luck) or hope he snaps back next week so you can try to sell him again.
Bills -- Mike Tolbert earned 13 touches as LeSean McCoy's new handcuff after Jonathan Williams was dumped. Count me stupified. If Tolbert keeps getting 8+ looks a game, he'll be a TD-dependent RB4, which is far better than I envisioned a week ago. That said, I'm not on the Tolbert bandwagon and urge you not to use valuable FAAB dollars on this almost 32-year-old, inefficient back.
Falcons -- Atlanta escaped Chicago with a win. A better Bears QB and/or better receiving weapons could have turned that final play into a red zone TD instead of a game-ending sack. But the hero was Austin Hooper--one my three big-hyped TEs all summer, right up through Sunday morning's FF4W podcast. While I expected more than two targets, 128 yards and a score show he and Matt Ryan are locked in. And to think he's rostered in only 1.5% of ESPN leagues.
Bears -- I could write about the nearly-always-injured Kevin White's latest injury (talk about bad luck). But the biggest fantasy impact for this team was Tarik Cohen and his breakout NFL debut. While it helped Benny Cunningham was knocked out early, Cohen generated enough camp buzz to warrant plenty of RB handcuff consideration (I've hyped him many times). While not built to be an every-down back, his arrival means trouble for Jordan Howard, who now must contend with a potential time-share going forward.
Ravens -- Danny Woodhead's injury meant more run for Terrence West and Buck Allen. Allen deserves the most mention in this column, as any missed time for Woodhead will put Allen on the weekly RB3/4 radar--with upside if he's able to overtake West, who has almost no grip on the lead-back role in Baltimore.
Bengals -- Almost nothing went right for Cincy yesterday, meaning there are plenty of players to throw under the bus. But the big fantasy story here is the invisibility of Tyler Eifert, who drew only one target. He was the #1 tight end to avoid in my Sunday morning podcast, and we should now wonder whether he's worth starting as a top 12 TE in the coming weeks. While I'm not ready to throw in the towel, my concerns heading into Week 1 aren't going away. He needs to get healthy, stay healthy, and regain the #2 receiving role.
Steelers -- Le'Veon Bell will rebound, so there's no real fantasy story there. I'm eyeballing the TE situation, with Jesse James snagging two goal-line TD passes. Is he now on the top 14 TE radar? Or will recently acquired TE Vance McDonald ease into this lineup? Any capable tight end earning looks from Big Ben is a fantasy commodity worth at least streaming.
Browns -- Isaiah Crowell was awful yesterday, netting 60 yards on 19 touches with a 1.9 YPC. Going back to Week 5 of last season, he's been almost unstartable as an RB3/Flex in all but a few weeks. That adds up to underwhelming numbers in eight or nine of his last 13 games. While DeShone Kizer showed promise, Crowell is a risky RB2/3 the rest of the season and is a borderline sell-now candidate.
Cardinals -- Speaking of awful, Sunday couldn't have gone worse for Arizona. Word is that David Johnson could miss anywhere from a few days to a few weeks to half the season. Like many, I draft Johnson first overall, though Kerwynn Williams is one of my six rostered RB handcuffs (my league allows for very deep benches). He and Andre Ellington could become must-roster RBs, with Williams holding the edge given yesterday's usage. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer looked like he had one foot dipped in retirement. About 20% of his 269 yards and his lone score were on his final garbage-time drive. His three picks cost Arizona the game. As we've seen in recent years, as Palmer goes, so goes Arizona. Normally the concern has been his health. But age and diminishing abilities would significantly impact his teammates' fantasy fortunes.
Lions -- Rookie Kenny Golladay saved the best for last, converting two fourth quarter TDs and tying for second on the team with seven targets. I drafted Marvin Jones and Golladay for a reason: one of these two will be Matthew Stafford's #2 receiver. I don't care who it is; I just want it to happen soon. Golladay is considerably closer after yesterday. And admittedly, I didn't expect his breakout to happen this quickly, so hats off to those who took the chance and actually started him.
Raiders -- I've warned about Marshawn Lynch several times these past few weeks, and admittedly was surprised to see him collect 92 yards on 19 touches. Of course, that would put him on pace for 300+ touches, which was my central point all preseason: Oakland didn't pull Lynch out of retirement to overwork him. They want/need him for the playoffs. So I maintain it's time to sell high on the veteran before "the norm" becomes 12-14 touches a game.
Titans -- Game flow prevented Tennessee from capitalizing on its biggest strength: the running game. But what's notable is that Derrick Henry ran better than DeMarco Murray. The same was true last season (though barely). Murray was overvalued at his draft position entering the season and remains a very risky RB1. If I had him, I'd trade him for RB1 value immediately.
Eagles -- Nelson Agholor's bust-out performance aside, Alshon Jeffery's letdown helped make it happen. Josh Norman presumably had something to do with that, so let's not overreact. That said, I wasn't sold on Jeffery's value this preseason and continue to view him as a situational WR2/3. With Agholor, Darren Sproles, Zach Ertz, Torrey Smith, and others eating up Carson Wentz's attention, the question is whether Jeffery becomes the clear #1 target. I still believe the answer will be "no," and yesterday showed how Philly can win without a big game from Jeffery.
Redskins -- What a disastrous home loss for a team entering the season with plenty of hype. The news before kickoff about Jordan Reed's fractured big toe simply reinforces Washington's challenges lying ahead. Reed's risk-reward status has been understood by all for year. Like Eifert, he's a near-elite option when healthy. But he's one of the biggest TE liabilities in the game.
Jaguars -- Two players to mention here. Allen Robinson tore his ACL and is out for the year--a devastating development for him, the team, and fantasy managers leaning on him as a top 20 WR (his ADP heading into yesterday was WR-19). Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns have now catapulted to, at minimum, streaming status--and considerably more if Blake Bortles can somehow right the ship at QB. Additionally, Leonard Fournette proved me wrong. When Robinson was knocked out, the rookie RB became the offense, joining the defense to lead the team to an upset road win. 124 yards and a TD is quite a way to enter the league. But the contrarian side of me is keeping his workload on my radar; 29 touches is not sustainable, especially for a guy with repeated foot injuries.
Texans -- This franchise is a mess. A great or even good QB would make Lamar Miller an RB1 and DeAndre Hopkins a near-elite WR. Fortunately the team moved quickly to begin the Deshaun Watson Era. Watson needs to be monitored closely. He showed flashes in his debut, though it could take half a season or more to give Miller and Hopkins a fighting chance to make good on their ADPs. If you have Miller and/or Hopkins, you have to hope Watson gets acclimated quickly.
Colts -- This was easy to see coming. No Andrew Luck, no chance for the Indy team built around its franchise QB. Scott Tolzien didn't belong on the field, and mercifully the recently acquired Jacoby Brissett offered a preview at the end that he'll be the starter going forward. Brissett is an intriguing add in deep leagues and a must-add in two-QB leagues. He's the primary story coming out of Sunday's contest.
Rams -- They absolutely mauled the Colts. But the bigger story is Todd Gurley picking up where he left off last year, but looked even worse. Is it the o-line? Is it Gurley? Maybe a combination? While it was nice to see him heavily involved in the passing game, Gurley must turn things around on the ground if he's going to meet ADP expectations. A 2.1 YPC--including one total yard on eight second-half carries--sends most mortals to the bench. Gurley is getting by on his name, not his numbers.
Seahawks -- I'm not putting a lot of stock the Seattle's letdown, in which Russell Wilson and/or the o-line (a familiar theme) looked pretty bad. The biggest story here is Chris Carson racking up 39 yards on six carries, while Eddie Lacy--someone I urged readers to avoid on draft day--had only three yards on five carries. With Thomas Rawls chronically injured, Carson could be a week or two away from being Seattle's lead back. It's still early, but if Carson continues to look good, it's hard to imagine Lacy being fantasy relevant.
Packers -- I warn folks not to start Randall Cobb, and then he leads the team in targets (13), catches (9), and yards (85). I remain skeptical about his future prospects--that Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams will be the top two receivers as the season progresses. But clearly the Packers wanted to get Cobb going, making this a more interesting (i.e. harder) receiver corps to figure out heading into Week 2.
Panthers -- Jonathan Stewart's usage shocked me. 20 touches, or two more than rookie Christian McCaffrey. While some of that had to do with a game that was in-hand by early in the third quarter, Stewart clearly isn't going away. Although I don't see him earning 20+ touches the rest of the season, he's now on the RB3 radar until the team proves otherwise.
49ers -- I ignored prognosticators and predicted Brian Hoyer would have a nice game. Instead, Carolina kept him in check and limited him to a measly 5.5 yards per throw. The Niners' painful schedule essentially the rest of the year (check it out--hard to imagine them winning more than one game) means this was likely the last time I'll recommend streaming Hoyer.
Giants -- Without OBJ, Eli Manning and the Giants looked lost. I expected the ground game to stink. But the biggest fantasy nugget here was Brandon Marshall's 1/10 line. He's one season removed from being a perennial WR1. Last night he was an afterthought. While it's only one game, it had to be concerning for those needing him to justify his high ADP.
Cowboys -- Dallas must have re-signed Terrance Williams this offseason for a reason. Or that's what I kept telling myself. He lost his #2 job last year to Cole Beasley and looked ready to be fantasy irrelevant this season. But his 6/68 performance makes him a credible add in deep leagues. Either he or Beasley will be the #2. You'll getting WR3/4 value from one of them.
Last season I started writing Monday morning rundowns of each Sunday team's most notable fantasy player, good or bad. Essentially, who had the biggest ripple effect in the fantasy universe? I've got 24 teams to cover. Let's get started:
Jets -- I warned last week to sell high on Bilal Powell and Matt Forte. Granted yesterday was just one game. But this is an historically bad team that will usually play from behind. Powell dropped in my rankings late in the preseason when it became clear the Jets organization had little interest in winning--going so far as to toss an injured Josh McCown back onto the field in a meaningless fourth preseason game. If you kept Powell, there's little to do but to try to sell high (good luck) or hope he snaps back next week so you can try to sell him again.
Bills -- Mike Tolbert earned 13 touches as LeSean McCoy's new handcuff after Jonathan Williams was dumped. Count me stupified. If Tolbert keeps getting 8+ looks a game, he'll be a TD-dependent RB4, which is far better than I envisioned a week ago. That said, I'm not on the Tolbert bandwagon and urge you not to use valuable FAAB dollars on this almost 32-year-old, inefficient back.
Falcons -- Atlanta escaped Chicago with a win. A better Bears QB and/or better receiving weapons could have turned that final play into a red zone TD instead of a game-ending sack. But the hero was Austin Hooper--one my three big-hyped TEs all summer, right up through Sunday morning's FF4W podcast. While I expected more than two targets, 128 yards and a score show he and Matt Ryan are locked in. And to think he's rostered in only 1.5% of ESPN leagues.
Bears -- I could write about the nearly-always-injured Kevin White's latest injury (talk about bad luck). But the biggest fantasy impact for this team was Tarik Cohen and his breakout NFL debut. While it helped Benny Cunningham was knocked out early, Cohen generated enough camp buzz to warrant plenty of RB handcuff consideration (I've hyped him many times). While not built to be an every-down back, his arrival means trouble for Jordan Howard, who now must contend with a potential time-share going forward.
Ravens -- Danny Woodhead's injury meant more run for Terrence West and Buck Allen. Allen deserves the most mention in this column, as any missed time for Woodhead will put Allen on the weekly RB3/4 radar--with upside if he's able to overtake West, who has almost no grip on the lead-back role in Baltimore.
Bengals -- Almost nothing went right for Cincy yesterday, meaning there are plenty of players to throw under the bus. But the big fantasy story here is the invisibility of Tyler Eifert, who drew only one target. He was the #1 tight end to avoid in my Sunday morning podcast, and we should now wonder whether he's worth starting as a top 12 TE in the coming weeks. While I'm not ready to throw in the towel, my concerns heading into Week 1 aren't going away. He needs to get healthy, stay healthy, and regain the #2 receiving role.
Steelers -- Le'Veon Bell will rebound, so there's no real fantasy story there. I'm eyeballing the TE situation, with Jesse James snagging two goal-line TD passes. Is he now on the top 14 TE radar? Or will recently acquired TE Vance McDonald ease into this lineup? Any capable tight end earning looks from Big Ben is a fantasy commodity worth at least streaming.
Browns -- Isaiah Crowell was awful yesterday, netting 60 yards on 19 touches with a 1.9 YPC. Going back to Week 5 of last season, he's been almost unstartable as an RB3/Flex in all but a few weeks. That adds up to underwhelming numbers in eight or nine of his last 13 games. While DeShone Kizer showed promise, Crowell is a risky RB2/3 the rest of the season and is a borderline sell-now candidate.
Cardinals -- Speaking of awful, Sunday couldn't have gone worse for Arizona. Word is that David Johnson could miss anywhere from a few days to a few weeks to half the season. Like many, I draft Johnson first overall, though Kerwynn Williams is one of my six rostered RB handcuffs (my league allows for very deep benches). He and Andre Ellington could become must-roster RBs, with Williams holding the edge given yesterday's usage. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer looked like he had one foot dipped in retirement. About 20% of his 269 yards and his lone score were on his final garbage-time drive. His three picks cost Arizona the game. As we've seen in recent years, as Palmer goes, so goes Arizona. Normally the concern has been his health. But age and diminishing abilities would significantly impact his teammates' fantasy fortunes.
Lions -- Rookie Kenny Golladay saved the best for last, converting two fourth quarter TDs and tying for second on the team with seven targets. I drafted Marvin Jones and Golladay for a reason: one of these two will be Matthew Stafford's #2 receiver. I don't care who it is; I just want it to happen soon. Golladay is considerably closer after yesterday. And admittedly, I didn't expect his breakout to happen this quickly, so hats off to those who took the chance and actually started him.
Raiders -- I've warned about Marshawn Lynch several times these past few weeks, and admittedly was surprised to see him collect 92 yards on 19 touches. Of course, that would put him on pace for 300+ touches, which was my central point all preseason: Oakland didn't pull Lynch out of retirement to overwork him. They want/need him for the playoffs. So I maintain it's time to sell high on the veteran before "the norm" becomes 12-14 touches a game.
Titans -- Game flow prevented Tennessee from capitalizing on its biggest strength: the running game. But what's notable is that Derrick Henry ran better than DeMarco Murray. The same was true last season (though barely). Murray was overvalued at his draft position entering the season and remains a very risky RB1. If I had him, I'd trade him for RB1 value immediately.
Eagles -- Nelson Agholor's bust-out performance aside, Alshon Jeffery's letdown helped make it happen. Josh Norman presumably had something to do with that, so let's not overreact. That said, I wasn't sold on Jeffery's value this preseason and continue to view him as a situational WR2/3. With Agholor, Darren Sproles, Zach Ertz, Torrey Smith, and others eating up Carson Wentz's attention, the question is whether Jeffery becomes the clear #1 target. I still believe the answer will be "no," and yesterday showed how Philly can win without a big game from Jeffery.
Redskins -- What a disastrous home loss for a team entering the season with plenty of hype. The news before kickoff about Jordan Reed's fractured big toe simply reinforces Washington's challenges lying ahead. Reed's risk-reward status has been understood by all for year. Like Eifert, he's a near-elite option when healthy. But he's one of the biggest TE liabilities in the game.
Jaguars -- Two players to mention here. Allen Robinson tore his ACL and is out for the year--a devastating development for him, the team, and fantasy managers leaning on him as a top 20 WR (his ADP heading into yesterday was WR-19). Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns have now catapulted to, at minimum, streaming status--and considerably more if Blake Bortles can somehow right the ship at QB. Additionally, Leonard Fournette proved me wrong. When Robinson was knocked out, the rookie RB became the offense, joining the defense to lead the team to an upset road win. 124 yards and a TD is quite a way to enter the league. But the contrarian side of me is keeping his workload on my radar; 29 touches is not sustainable, especially for a guy with repeated foot injuries.
Texans -- This franchise is a mess. A great or even good QB would make Lamar Miller an RB1 and DeAndre Hopkins a near-elite WR. Fortunately the team moved quickly to begin the Deshaun Watson Era. Watson needs to be monitored closely. He showed flashes in his debut, though it could take half a season or more to give Miller and Hopkins a fighting chance to make good on their ADPs. If you have Miller and/or Hopkins, you have to hope Watson gets acclimated quickly.
Colts -- This was easy to see coming. No Andrew Luck, no chance for the Indy team built around its franchise QB. Scott Tolzien didn't belong on the field, and mercifully the recently acquired Jacoby Brissett offered a preview at the end that he'll be the starter going forward. Brissett is an intriguing add in deep leagues and a must-add in two-QB leagues. He's the primary story coming out of Sunday's contest.
Rams -- They absolutely mauled the Colts. But the bigger story is Todd Gurley picking up where he left off last year, but looked even worse. Is it the o-line? Is it Gurley? Maybe a combination? While it was nice to see him heavily involved in the passing game, Gurley must turn things around on the ground if he's going to meet ADP expectations. A 2.1 YPC--including one total yard on eight second-half carries--sends most mortals to the bench. Gurley is getting by on his name, not his numbers.
Seahawks -- I'm not putting a lot of stock the Seattle's letdown, in which Russell Wilson and/or the o-line (a familiar theme) looked pretty bad. The biggest story here is Chris Carson racking up 39 yards on six carries, while Eddie Lacy--someone I urged readers to avoid on draft day--had only three yards on five carries. With Thomas Rawls chronically injured, Carson could be a week or two away from being Seattle's lead back. It's still early, but if Carson continues to look good, it's hard to imagine Lacy being fantasy relevant.
Packers -- I warn folks not to start Randall Cobb, and then he leads the team in targets (13), catches (9), and yards (85). I remain skeptical about his future prospects--that Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams will be the top two receivers as the season progresses. But clearly the Packers wanted to get Cobb going, making this a more interesting (i.e. harder) receiver corps to figure out heading into Week 2.
Panthers -- Jonathan Stewart's usage shocked me. 20 touches, or two more than rookie Christian McCaffrey. While some of that had to do with a game that was in-hand by early in the third quarter, Stewart clearly isn't going away. Although I don't see him earning 20+ touches the rest of the season, he's now on the RB3 radar until the team proves otherwise.
49ers -- I ignored prognosticators and predicted Brian Hoyer would have a nice game. Instead, Carolina kept him in check and limited him to a measly 5.5 yards per throw. The Niners' painful schedule essentially the rest of the year (check it out--hard to imagine them winning more than one game) means this was likely the last time I'll recommend streaming Hoyer.
Giants -- Without OBJ, Eli Manning and the Giants looked lost. I expected the ground game to stink. But the biggest fantasy nugget here was Brandon Marshall's 1/10 line. He's one season removed from being a perennial WR1. Last night he was an afterthought. While it's only one game, it had to be concerning for those needing him to justify his high ADP.
Cowboys -- Dallas must have re-signed Terrance Williams this offseason for a reason. Or that's what I kept telling myself. He lost his #2 job last year to Cole Beasley and looked ready to be fantasy irrelevant this season. But his 6/68 performance makes him a credible add in deep leagues. Either he or Beasley will be the #2. You'll getting WR3/4 value from one of them.